Noble Predictive Insights

“These numbers reflect early-cycle dynamics,” Noble said. “Voters simply aren’t tuned into these races yet. But that also means campaigns have plenty of opportunity. Definition — positive or negative — will matter immensely.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

“The Corporation Commission is historically one of the lowest-profile statewide offices. When voters haven’t formed impressions yet, campaigns that can introduce their candidates effectively — particularly on issues like energy costs and utility regulation — can move the race quickly.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

AZ Corporation Commission races show the lowest voter engagement. Voters can pick two candidates — but most still have no opinion or haven’t heard of them. Classic early-cycle down-ballot dynamic. Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

Democratic Superintendent primary: Ruiz: 31% Butts: 8% Undecided: 62% Among voters 65+, undecided jumps to 80%. Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

GOP Superintendent favorability contrast: Horne: 👍 26% favorable 👎 24% unfavorable Yee: 👍 27% favorable 👎 13% unfavorable Yee has the cleaner image — Horne has higher name ID (72%). Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

AZ Superintendent GOP primary: Horne: 31% Yee: 25% Undecided: 44% Most developed race in the poll — but still nearly half the electorate is uncommitted. Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

“The Attorney General race mirrors the Secretary of State contest — high uncertainty and no dominant candidate. With voters still shopping, this is a race that could shift dramatically once campaigns begin communicating at scale.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

AZ Attorney General GOP primary: Petersen: 13% Glassman: 12% Roeberg: 8% Undecided: 67% Name ID is basically identical across the field (~52–55%). noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

“This race is still almost entirely defined by name recognition. Kolodin’s financial advantage allows him to begin introducing himself to voters while the race is still largely undefined.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

“This is a classic low-information primary. With 67% undecided, this race hasn’t even begun to fully form. The candidate who can build early name ID and consolidate a coalition of older primary voters will have a major advantage.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

Secretary of State GOP primary dynamic: 👶 Younger voters (18–29) → Kolodin 36% 👴 Seniors (65+) → 88% undecided That’s a huge bloc of reliable primary voters still up for grabs. Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

AZ SOS GOP primary snapshot: Kolodin: 17% favorable / 15% unfavorable / 56% Name ID Swoboda: 17% favorable / 17% unfavorable / 60% Name ID But 67% of GOP voters are still undecided... Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

NEW AZ ELECTIONS POLL: Arizona’s down-ballot races are wide open. Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Superintendent primaries all show huge undecided blocs — in some cases ~2/3 of voters. Early cycle reality: voters just aren’t tuned in yet. Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/wide-open…

We’re truly grateful for your partnership, @MikePNoble, and for @NoblePredictive’s role in conducting the Good Elections Survey, uplifting Arizonans’ voices on what makes a fair and secure election and sparking the discussion. Explore the findings here: bit.ly/49X02CT

Arizona is shaping up for another tight gubernatorial battle. Biggs consolidates the GOP primary. Hobbs holds an early advantage. Undecideds remain decisive. Full AZPOP report available now: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/azgov-big…

“With double-digit undecideds among registered voters, this race is far from locked in. The candidate who can consolidate their base while making inroads with persuadable women and middle-aged voters will have the edge.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/azgov-big…

“This is a competitive but structurally polarized race. Governor Hobbs benefits from a clear gender advantage and strength with younger voters, while Republicans are consolidating men and older voters. The decisive question will be who wins the middle — particularly women under 50 and independents who are still parked in the undecided column.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/azgov-big…

Younger voters favor Hobbs. Seniors tilt Republican. Voters ages 30–64 are split — and more undecided. Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/azgov-big…

“Hobbs isn’t running away with this contest, although with no competitive primary to speak of – she has to feel good about the position she is currently in.” - @MikePNoble Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/azgov-big…

The defining dynamic so far? A massive gender gap. Women back Hobbs 45–30 Men back Biggs 44–39 Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/azgov-big…