Novariv

1/7
$ASTS is hiring 500 plus people in Midland. Sounds normal until you remember they only have around 1,200 employees total.
Fill those roles and that is basically a 40% jump in headcount. You do not hire like that unless you are trying to build at volume.

@PhotonBull $FLY

Trying to find a few new stocks to look into over the weekend It feels like X has already found everything lately If you had to go all in on ONE stock that is not popular on X (so no $SNDK, $NBIS, $ASTS etc) Which stock would you pick?

$QQQ and $QQQM, 594 billion dollars combined, will be forced to buy $SPCX around July 6. A May 2026 rule change lets any new top 40 Nasdaq listing enter the $NDAQ after just 15 trading days, no free float requirement needed. S&P 500 is the opposite story. S&P rejected a fast track proposal on June 4 and is holding SpaceX to the normal 12 month seasoning rule, plus a GAAP profitability requirement it doesn't meet after a 4.9 billion dollar net loss in 2025. The Nasdaq money is coming. The S&P money is not, not yet.

$SPCX hit a $2.9 trillion valuation four days after its IPO, on a company that lost $4.9 billion last year. 2025 revenue was $18.67 billion. That works out to over 150 times sales, a multiple $NVDA never touched even at its hottest. The price isn't being set by the income statement, it's being set by 4.9 percent of the company actually being available to trade.

@hellolynna21876 Thanks!

@Novariv_ Good synopsis!

1/ $ASTS dropped almost 16% the same week they literally put 3 more satellites in orbit. Think about how dumb that is for a second. The company is hitting the biggest milestones in its history and the stock is getting smoked. I keep seeing people asking what happened and if the thesis is dead, so let me actually break this whole thing down. Spoiler, Im not selling a single share 🛰️ 2/ The drop has almost nothing to do with the company. On June 12 SpaceX IPO'd at $1.77T, biggest listing ever, and basically every dollar that was parked in small speculative space names got yanked out and thrown at the new shiny thing. The whole sector bled, not just us. $ASTS just got hit the hardest, and theres a reason for that. SpaceX literally named $ASTS as a competitor in their IPO filing. So when the big dog goes public and points at you, you become the first thing people sell. Add in the index funds being forced to buy SpaceX and you get a giant capital vacuum. None of that is $ASTS doing anything wrong. 3/ Then on top of the rotation, we did the classic sell the news. They launched BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 on June 17, clean success, and the stock faded anyway cause everyone bought the rumor and dumped the event. And look, Im not gonna sit here and pretend theres zero real overhang. Q1 revenue came in soft, insiders have been selling, and $SPCX just did a $17B spectrum deal with EchoStar that makes their direct to cell push stronger. That EchoStar one actually matters and I'm watching it. But none of this is the business falling apart. Its sentiment, rotation, and one competitor headline. 4/ Now heres what everyone forgets the second the candle turns red. $ASTS is the ONLY company building a cellular network in space that talks straight to a normal phone. No special case, no dish, no extra hardware. The phone already in your pocket. Each BlueBird Block 2 is a 2,400 sq ft monster antenna, one of the biggest commercial arrays ever flown, and it can push up to 120 Mbps down to a regular handset. Thats the moat. Nobody else is doing this at scale. 5/ And before anyone calls it a meme stock burning to zero, look at the actual balance sheet. $3.5B in cash. Over $1.2B already contracted. 2026 revenue guided at $150M to $200M. 50 carrier agreements covering close to 3 billion subscribers, were talking AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, T-Mobile. Plus 8 development contracts with the US DoD. This is a funded company with the biggest carriers on earth already signed, not some hope and prayer ticker. 6/ The part that actually gets me excited is the model flipping on. Right now its mostly a build story. But as they get sats up and turn on commercial service, the carrier revenue share kicks in, and you go from burning cash on a constellation to actually printing recurring revenue off 3 billion potential subs. Theyre at 9 operational sats now and targeting around 45 by year end. That cadence is the entire game. 7/ Am I ignoring the risks? Absolutely not, thats how you blow up an account. Starlink direct to cell plus that EchoStar spectrum is a legit competitive threat. They HAVE to hit the ~45 satellite cadence by year end or the whole multiple comes down. Theyre still deeply unprofitable and burning $1.6B+ in free cash this year. And the insider selling isnt a great look. If they miss on launches, I'll be the first one to say the thesis cracked. But missing hasnt happened yet. 8/ So heres where I land. I never thought this thing rips straight up, its a high beta build and you have to be able to stomach 40% drawdowns like the one were in right now. But the core didnt change this week. First mover in direct to phone satellite broadband, fully funded through the build, carriers already locked, sats going up on schedule. The price got caught in the SpaceX flush. The story didnt. Down 40% from the high and Im still holding every share. What are you guys doing here? 🛰️

@Novariv_ A bit more pain to go

Fair, I didn’t mean to paint insider selling as a red flag, just that it’s not the prettiest look. Abel hasn’t sold a single share, only auto tax withholding on vesting. The officers who trimmed did so in small size right after vesting, so it reads as profit taking, not bailing. Rakuten ran a pre scheduled 10b5-1 plan, now fully executed. They trimmed about half, from ~31M shares to ~15.5M, and still hold a 5.3% stake. Known seller, now done, which is why the selling pressure eased. Likely just balance sheet and profit taking after a 250%+ run. American Tower sold a ~$159M block to institutions but kept their convertible and Class B shares, so still exposed.

@Novariv_ I agree with almost everything you wrote but what insider selling do you mean? The levels we see are normal and very far from "insiders selling right before the ship sinks", and Abel hasn't sold a single one, at least as far as I know...

@TannerStarStone We both agree. But so far ASTS hasnt made an official statement about "not being able to achieve 45 satellites by EOY". However achieving it imo will be really really complicated.

@Novariv_ Great post. But there’s no way they’re getting 45 satellites up this year. Blue orgin mess pushes them back a year minimum on full build out. And that’s ok, they’ll print money when fully operational.

@kuzuhara5706371 Yes, and thats the key risk! But seeing the successful launch of bluebird 8,9,10 i am just confident in their capabilities.

@Novariv_ I thought about it. What if the launch had failed?

$ASTS's BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are now live in orbit and trackable in real time. Each one measures roughly 2,400 square feet, the largest commercial communication arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit, built to push close to 200 Mbps directly to a standard smartphone. People are already watching them cross the sky on public satellite trackers, which is a strange thing to be able to do with a stock you own.

$HOVR (New Horizon Aircraft) New Horizon Aircraft stock has dropped sharply this month. In the same window, they appointed a new Chief Engineer for certified programs and advanced a dual use certification pathway for the Cavorite X7 with Marshall Aerospace. The stock price and the program timeline are telling two different stories right now. What it means for HOVR holders: this is a pre-revenue certification story, and the stock will likely keep trading on sentiment, not fundamentals, until certification milestones actually land.

$HYLN (Hyliion) Hyliion stock has moved over 250% as KARNO shifts from a trucking side project into an AI data center power story. The Navy is now testing it on an unmanned vessel platform, and Needham just initiated coverage with a Buy on the commercialization timeline. What it means for HYLN holders: the market has stopped pricing this as a failed EV truck company. It's pricing a power generation pivot, which raises the bar for real commercial deployments in 2027.

$PNG.V closes its $615 million Covelya acquisition July 2. Combined 2025 revenue between the two companies was $365 million at a 24 percent EBITDA margin, and Covelya alone has grown revenue at a 24 percent rate since 2023. Management is guiding to low to mid double digit EPS accretion in 2027 once cost synergies kick in, on a combined base of more than 700 customers across defense and commercial. It's a fun thing to watch a company most people have never heard of, doing underwater sonar work most people couldn't name, suddenly absorb a 750 person global outfit in one deal.

$FLY (Firefly Aerospace) Firefly Aerospace stock ran from the low 40s to above 62, then slid back to around 39. In that window they landed a $75 million NASA JPL subcontract to deliver lunar drones using their Elytra spacecraft. The company is guiding $420 to $450 million in 2026 revenue against a $96.7 million quarterly net loss. What it means for FLY holders: the contract wins are real, but the stock already round tripped a big chunk of its NASA pop, so the trade has shifted from chasing news to watching whether cash burn narrows before the next raise.

$NBIS (Nebius) Nebius is exiting 2026 with up to 1,000 megawatts of data center capacity online. They started the year at 170 megawatts. That's close to a 6x jump in twelve months, backed by a contracted backlog approaching $50 billion through 2031. What it means for NBIS holders: the stock isn't pricing a neocloud story anymore, it's pricing whether they can physically build power and chips fast enough to fill contracts already signed. What is your EOY Price target?

$MP - 34 days until Section 122 tariffs are due to expire (July 24) under the 150-day clock that started Feb 24. It's gotten messier since: a trade court ruled the 10% tariff unlawful on May 7, but the Federal Circuit stayed that ruling on June 11 and said the government is "likely to succeed" on appeal, so the tariff is still being collected today. Congress hasn't enacted an extension either way. If the surcharge lapses, imports still face normal MFN rates plus whatever Section 301/232 tariffs already apply, not a clean reversion to zero. What it means for $MP holders: this legal fight is mostly noise next to the real catalyst, the DoD equity partnership from 2025. Tariff headlines might jolt the stock short-term, but the structural story (US trying to onshore rare earth supply with the Pentagon as a direct stakeholder) doesn't change whether this surcharge survives appeal or not.

$KRKNF $PNG.V regulatory approval is in. Covelya closes July 2. This is the deal that turns Kraken from a parts supplier into a full subsea system integrator. Power, nav, comms, sonar all under one roof. $615M CAD, combined rev ~$365M. Who else holding? 🦑

1/ Quick $NBIS thread on the one number that actually decides who wins with these AI cloud names, and barely anyone tracks it. Not revenue. Not GPU count. Power. Heres why locked up gigawatts matter more than chips, and what Nebius just quietly grabbed 🧵 2/ Heres the thing that matters. GPUs arent really the bottleneck anymore. You can order H200s. What you cant just order is power and land at scale. A gigawatt takes YEARS to permit and build. So whoever locks up power now owns the capacity in 2027. Everyone else is stuck in line waiting. 3/ And this is where Nebius has been quietly winning. Theyve already contracted over 3.5 GW of power, going for 4 GW by year end. And back in May they grabbed 1.2 GW of power plus land for their own AI factory in Pennsylvania. Owned, not rented. Thats years of runway locked in. 4/ Then the part almost nobody noticed. Just last week, June 10, they closed the acquisition of Eigen AI, an inference and model optimization company. Why care? Cause a pure GPU landlord gets commoditized fast. Moving up into inference is how they protect margins instead of racing everyone to the bottom on price. 5/ And the demand backs all of it up. On the last call they straight up said theyve raised prices AGAIN and are still selling out across every chip type. Thats not a company struggling to fill racks. Thats one that cant build them fast enough. 6/ Im not blind to the risks though. This is a capex monster, they guided $20 to 25B and keep raising convertible notes, so dilution and financing risk is real. A lot of revenue leans on Meta and Microsoft, thats concentration. And the stock is up triple digits this year and swings like crazy. But that power moat is the part the market still sleeps on 🔌

1/ This Fed meeting was a way bigger deal than the flat headline makes it look. They held at 3.5 to 3.75%, but the real story is buried in the projections. Let me break the numbers down 🧮 2/ Start with the dot plot. The median rate call for end of 2026 jumped from 3.4% in March to 3.8% now. Thats a big move. The committee basically went from pricing a cut to pricing a 25bp HIKE by year end. 9 of 18 members now see at least one hike. Only 1 still sees a cut. 3/ And the why is all in the inflation data. CPI ran 4.2% in May, hottest since 2023. The Fed yanked its end of year PCE forecast up from 2.7% to 3.6%. GDP got trimmed to 2.2%. So slower growth AND hotter inflation. Thats the uncomfortable combo for them. 4/ Heres the technical bit almost nobody mentions. Nominal rates look high at ~3.6%. But measured against 4.2% CPI, the real rate is actually slightly negative. So policy isnt nearly as restrictive as the headline number feels. Thats part of why risk assets havent fully rolled over here. 5/ Now the valuation mechanics. The discount rate on future cash flow just went UP, not down like the market was betting on. Higher discount rate means lower present value means multiple compression. And it hits long duration growth names the hardest, since most of their value sits way out in the future. 6/ The front end is the quiet one. Short T bills are paying around 4% risk free right now. That sets the hurdle rate for everything else. Any risk asset has to clear a guaranteed ~4% just to justify the risk. That math has been sitting under spec names all year. 7/ So step back. Cuts pushed to 2027. A hike back on the table. Real rates near zero. Risk free at 4%. None of that shows up in a single earnings report, but it shapes every multiple in your portfolio. Watch the macro as close as the tickers. Hike or hold next print? 👀

Most people scroll right past the Fed headline and have no idea how much it actually moves their stocks. Quick rundown. The Fed held rates at 3.5 to 3.75% on Wednesday. Theyve been steady all year, last cut was back in December. It was Kevin Warshs first meeting as the new chair and the tone shifted a bit hawkish. They pulled the easing language out and the dot plot now leans toward a possible hike this year, with any cuts pushed out to 2027. Why? Inflation picked back up. The Iran war sent oil higher in Feb and CPI hit 4.2% in May, the highest since 2023. So the Fed is in no rush to cut. What it actually means for stocks, simply: Rates are the gravity behind every valuation. Higher for longer tends to matter most for long duration growth names priced on future cash flow, and less for companies already making real money today. And T bills paying around 4% give investors a safe place to sit, which is always part of the math. Not bearish, not bullish, just the setup. A big chunk of what moves your portfolio comes from up here, not from the company itself. Worth watching as close as you watch your tickers. Hike or hold from here? 👀 $AMD $NBIUS $ASTS