OptionsTrading101

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Good Morning! Futures are down, with ES -25. It's down from +14 earlier this morning.  Yesterday, the market sentiment improved after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu eased concerns about the conflict with Iran. He said that Israel is helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He told reporters at a press conference that Israel would “hold off” on future attacks on Iran’s gas fields after being told to by Trump. He also said Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Iran has issued a warning of “zero restraint” after strikes targeted its energy infrastructure during the ongoing conflict. Reports also indicate Iranian attacks have disabled 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, putting an estimated $20 billion in annual losses at risk and raising concerns about long-term disruptions to global energy supplies. $SMCI is down 25% pre-market. The DOJ has unsealed an indictment charge against three executives, for allegedly conspiring to smuggle or divert billions of dollars worth of U.S. made servers containing advanced $NVDA GPUs to China in violation of export controls. $ARM is up 2.6% pre-market after being upgraded by HSBC from "reduce" to "buy", with a raised price target of $205 from $90. $ARM had been strong all week.  I don't see any other notable pre-market activity. Today is "triple witching", which can cause elevated volume, increased volatility, and big price swings, especially in the final trading hour as institutions unwind, roll over, or exercise positions.

$MU analyst upgrades Cantor Fitzgerald put a "$700" price target on Micron. Maybe they should hire me as an analyst. I came up with that number immediately after they reported earnings. lol

LIVE: President Trump speaking youtube.com/live/1jgFkp02q… via @YouTube

If the market wants to focus on $MU's CapEx guidance, that implies money should rotate into the chip equipment makers like $ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX. Keep an eye on those.

@St_M_Don This can help.

@OptionsPro101 this could help a bit

It all comes down to cash flow. A company's stock price ultimately reflects the discounted value of its expected future cash flows. That's what valuation models like DCF are built on. Strong fundamentals (explosive revenue growth + expanding margins + sustainable competitive advantages) means much higher expected future cash flows. Higher expected cash flows means the market is willing to pay a higher multiple (P/E) today. When the market underestimates how powerful those fundamentals are (common during mean-reversion bias or fear phases), you get mispricings like the one I see in $MU right now. Short term price can be driven by sentiment, macro, technicals, or forced selling, but those tend to be noise that fade quickly.

@OptionsPro101 Can you explain to me why stocks always follow the fundamentals of a business? I’m genuinely interested in the logic.

The vast majority of investors/traders are simpletons.  Their logic is "if something has a strong run, it has to come down".  They don't understand how fundamentals work.  They view strong momentum as a sign of impending reversal, without digging into whether the underlying drivers are sustainable. That's classic mean-reversion thinking. It's rare to see a company with fundamentals as strong as $MU. Explosive revenue growth + record high margins + structural demand + supply constraints + earnings power  You don't get a better set up than this. Just wait until the analyst upgrades start coming out with raised priced targets. This is a textbook example of a "STRONG BUY".

Good Morning! Futures are down, with ES down 13. There are some inflation concerns after the PPI came in hotter than expected yesterday.  WTI crude is holding around $96 a barrel. If this moves back over $100, the market is going to head lower.  $MU is down 6% pre-market despite reporting strong earnings. Investors are focused on their raised CapEx guidance. $MU significantly raised its CapEx guidance, projecting over $25B for fiscal 2026 and a meaningful step-up in FY2027 (with Q3 capex alone at $7B). This signals heavy spending to expand capacity for AI-driven demand, which raises concerns about higher costs, potential margin pressure later, and cyclical risks in the memory sector. All of the memory storage stocks are weaker this morning following $MU's drop on earnings earnings: $SNDK, $STX, $WDC  The AI optics stocks are also trading lower this morning: $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE I don't see any other notable pre-market activity this morning. Everything else is holding near yesterday's closing price. $BTC failed to break higher and it's back down to $70k.  The overall market sentiment is negative right now, with no good news. The market needs some positive headlines now to provide some short term relief, otherwise we may continue to head lower.

$MU is extremely undervalued compared to $NVDA on forward valuation. $NVDA trades around a 22x forward P/E with perfection already priced in. $MU trades around a 12x forward P/E. That huge gap means $MU has way more room to run higher as the market catches up, unlike $NVDA where expectations were maxed out.

@OptionsPro101 Exactly winners can keep winning we saw that with $NVDA.

Not for stocks like $MU it isn't. Mean reversion works well for range bound or oscillating stocks, stocks without major changes in underlying value and situations driven by temporary sentiment, overreactions, or statistical noise rather than fundamental shifts. $MU doesn't fit the mean reversion framework, especially after a strong run up, because of its strong fundamentals that can justify sustained higher valuations and continued upward momentum instead of an automatic pullback. Mean reversion approaches do not work in cases of structural changes or powerful fundamental catalysts that push the stock into a new, higher trading regime.  It's important to understand when mean reversion works, and when it doesn't. It's not a "catch all" that applies to every stock.

@OptionsPro101 Mean reversion is a thing

@BklynComfort If $MU goes right back up in the morning, all techs can rally tomorrow.

@OptionsPro101 Does $Orcl or $AVGO get a move in sympathy as well with these?

Good Morning! Futures are up, with ES +36. Oil prices dipped after Iraq and Kurdish authorities reached a deal to resume exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, easing short-term supply concerns in the Middle East. The techs look strong this morning. The February PPI comes out this morning before the bell. The Fed will announce their rate cut decision later today at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Powell’s press conference. They are expected to leave rates unchanged, but Powell’s comments at the press conference could cause some movement in the market, even though he’s stepping down soon. $MU reports earnings today after the bell. That’s a huge catalyst for techs, especially the memory/storage stocks which will all move in tandem with $MU if they report strong earnings today. $SNDK $STX $WDC. The AI optics companies are flying pre-market with $AAOI up 9%, $COHR up 6%, LITE up 8%, and $GLW up 4%. This could be due to positive commentary from $NVDA’s GTC conference, where they emphasized optics vs. copper for data centers. $NVDA has multi-year strategic deals with $COHR and $LITE. Both of those get added to the S&P 500 effective Monday, March 23. The China stocks are moving pre-market. $BABA and $BIDU. $BABA reports earnings tomorrow before the market opens. Other notable pre-market movers: $ALAB $CRDO $CRWV $MU $SNDK $TER $BTC is holding around $74k. If it breaks any higher, it’s going to take $COIN and $MSTR up with it.

@VargOptions Yes

@OptionsPro101 This still active? I’m gonna sign up!

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@socaleuler Right back up in the morning. lol

@OptionsPro101 People are idiots plain and simple. MU killed it and it’s down? What it’s too good? Morons

$MU Q2 2026 earnings: EPS (non-GAAP/adjusted): 12.20 vs. 8.73 est. ✅ Revenue: $23.86B vs. $19.51B est. ✅ Key highlights from the Q3 FY2026 outlook: Revenue is expected to be around $33.5 billion (midpoint), with some estimates ranging from $32.7B to $34.2B, compared to consensus estimates of $23.3B–$23.8B. 🚀 That’s a massive beat of roughly +$10B, implying another strong sequential jump from the recently reported Q2. 🚀 Adjusted EPS is projected at $19.15 (midpoint), well above estimates of $11, representing another significant outperformance. 🚀 Gross margin is expected to come in at 81%, versus estimates around 71%, reflecting strong pricing power, a favorable mix shift toward high-margin HBM and AI products, and continued operational efficiency. 🚀

@Brucetrader101 The vast majority of people are stupid. It takes them time to process these numbers. lol

@OptionsPro101 How this is not up at least right now is beyond my understanding.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed projects one more rate cut this year and one more next year. Powell's press conference is next.

Oil prices are rising after Iran claimed the U.S. and Israel attacked its South Pars gas field, escalating tensions and raising supply concerns. Brent moved above $108 and U.S. crude near $99 as Iran threatened retaliation, prompting evacuations across key Middle East energy sites. Fears around the Strait of Hormuz are growing, with analysts warning oil could reach $110–$120 short term, and potentially $130–$200 in a worst-case scenario.

Oil is moving back up, WTI crude looks like it wants to get back over $100