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Good Morning! Futures are up, with ES +27 and NQ +229 Oil prices climbed over the weekend, with WTI crude now trading at $81 per barrel. Semiconductors are looking strong this morning. $NVDA is leading the Mag 7. The memory/storage names are rebounding with $SKHY leading $MU, $SNDK, $WDC, and $STX. The AI connectivity stocks are moving with $CRDO, $AAOI and $LITE leading.  Space stocks are up, with $RKLB leading $ASTS and $SPCX.  $IREN is up 8% on news of $2.8 billion in new AI customer contracts, including $MSFT and $NVDA, raising its year end ARR target above $4 billion with strong prepayments and cash position. $HUT is up 12% after signing a major AI data center deal in Texas. $DPZ is up 8% on a strong earnings beat.  The main catalysts this week will be earnings from $GOOGL, $TSLA, $NOW, $IBM, and $INTC.

@RealtorStarShar Discord.. Much better!

@OptionsPro101 Ron is your trading community on discord? Or do you have a room like your dad‘s with your own website?

It may be time to embrace the bear for a few weeks! This market looks primed for a healthy correction, but that's not a bad thing. We're not permabulls or permabears. We play the trend. Options trading is all about capitalizing on volatility and price action. As long as we have a direction, up or down, we can trade it! I see more downside coming. We'll play the downside for a couple weeks, and then catch the upside when the buyers step back in.

Alright, that's a wrap for the week! This was a tough week, and I finished with my first losing week in a while. Even on tough weeks, I'm usually able to find a few big winners that offset my losers and allow me to finish the week with a net gain, but I just couldn't make that happen this week. I held onto a few positions a little too long instead of taking profits, and that ended up costing me. We've had a great run over the last few months, and my overall account is still net positive, but this is my first week in a while that I'm finishing in the red. That's trading, though. You're not going to win every week. This week, the market was extremely choppy, with money rotating in and out of the semiconductor sector daily. We followed those rotations and still managed to lock in some great wins on: $SPX 7510 puts +153% $MSFT 390 calls +135% $IWM 296 calls +101% $GOOGL 370 calls +113% $AAPL 325 calls +100% $IBM 220 calls +150% $MSFT 410 calls +77% $GLW 155 puts +250% $SPX 7460 puts +177% Despite those wins, they weren't enough to offset my losses this week. I made the mistake of holding positions too long without taking profits. This morning I held my $TSLA 380 puts and my $ARM 240 puts too long instead of taking profits shortly after the open, and that mistake cost me. I broke one of my own trading rules: take profits quickly in a choppy market instead of holding out for a bigger move, especially on uncovered positions. The market has changed over the last couple of weeks. When it's chopping around like this, you have to be quicker taking profits because the move that's there today may be gone an hour later. That's the environment we're trading in right now. The market is also beginning to show signs of weakness, with continued pressure on the semiconductor sector weighing on the broader market. If that trend continues next week, we could see a deeper correction as money rotates out of AI and technology stocks that have had huge parabolic runs and into sectors that have lagged behind. Looking ahead to next week, we'll be watching earnings from $GEV, $TSLA, $GOOGL, $IBM, $INTC, and $NOW. There are no major economic data releases scheduled, so earnings will likely be the primary driver of market action. I hope everyone has a great weekend, and I'll see you all next week! 🚀

July Consumer Sentiment 54.4 vs 50.5 est. That's a bullish short-term catalyst for the market.

@UrFriendTay @smartertrader 1000%

@OptionsPro101 @smartertrader A wise man treats politics the same way

Some people think the stock market is like politics. They think you have to pick a side, bull or bear, and stick with it. 😂 That's not how the stock market works. As a wise man once said "Stocks go up, stocks go down, and then we see." Play the trend. If the trend is up, you embrace the bull. 🐂 If the trend is down, you embrace the bear. 🐻

@thefullporter @smartertrader It won't implode, but it's due for a sharp pullback.

@smartertrader is dell a leader? i think it implodes

Spx want to dump Tons of stuff at stupid valuations. Leaders will pop back. Others will implode

Good Morning! Futures are down, with ES -62 and NQ -470. WTI crude is trading around $79 this morning. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, with fresh strikes around the Strait of Hormuz causing continued concerns about another oil supply crunch even as some shipments have resumed. The techs are weak this morning, with a continued sell off in semiconductors on concerns over elevated AI spending and stretched valuations. $NFLX is down 10% after reporting mixed Q2 earnings results. Revenue missed estimates, free cash flow disappointed, and full year guidance came in below expectations. Strong membership growth and operating income beat forecasts, while they expect 12% revenue growth next quarter and continue expanding their use of generative AI. $ISRG is down 11% despite reporting a Q2 earnings beat on EPS and revenue. Investors were disappointed by unchanged full year procedure growth guidance and warned of tariff related pressure on margins. $SPCX is down 3% this morning, extending its five day losing streak and pushing it further below its IPO price. Yesterday, the company aborted their Starship V3 launch after two Raptor engines failed to start, triggering an automatic shutdown. Elon said the engines will be replaced, with the next launch attempt likely early next week.  The market looks primed for a notable correction. After their massive parabolic runs, the AI and tech leaders are pulling back, with money rotating into previously lagging sectors like software that have been overshadowed and beaten down by the AI trade.  I am expecting more downside on names like $MU, $SNDK, $MRVL, $ARM, $ALAB, $CRDO, $AAOI, $LITE, $DELL, $INTC, and $AMD.

Software up, chips down.... Again

Good Morning! Futures are down with ES -18 and NQ -250. WTI crude is holding around $79 a barrel. This week's low was around $72 and the high was around $81.  Memory and AI related stocks are weak this morning and trading lower after a sharp sell off in South Korea’s major memory chip makers.  SK Hynix dropped 12% and Samsung dropped nearly 9% on the Korea Exchange, marking their second straight day of steep losses.  This weighed heavily on South Korea's Kospi Index, which fell approximately 6.4%. That weakness is spilling over into U.S. market this morning.  $TSM is down 4% pre-market despite crushing Q2 earnings with a double beat on EPS and Revenue, and raised Q3 guidance. The numbers showed record profits +77% YoY, but the sell off is primarily due to higher than expected capex spending. They announced spending over the next 3 years will be “even more significantly higher” than during the prior 3 years. This raises margin concerns and triggered a classic post earnings sell off which is a common theme for all these AI stocks on earnings lately.  $TSM is a bellwether for AI chip demand, and they announced plans to invest an additional $100B to expand its U.S. chipmaking capacity, bringing the company’s total investment plan to $265B. However, investors have been concerned over rising capital expenditure by big tech companies and returns linked to AI related spending. $ASTS is down 11% pre-market due to dilution fears from a large capital raise. They announced and priced a $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due 2034. $UNH is up 7% after reporting strong Q2 earnings results this morning. Healthcare is considered one of the "safer" sectors that money flows into as it leaves the AI/tech stocks, so we may see this one run even further today with the rest of the healthcare stocks.  The software stocks are all green pre-market while the semiconductors are all red. This has been a common rotation lately. When money flows out of semiconductors it has been moving into software.

$TSM Q2 EARNINGS • Revenue $40.2B vs Est. $39.3B • EPS $4.31 vs Est. $3.83 • Gross margin 68% vs Est. 67% • Net income $22.4B vs Est. $19.7B • Advanced nodes (≤7nm) were 77% of wafer revenue Q3 Guidance • Revenue $45.2B vs Est. $38.1B (+37% YoY) • Gross margin 66% vs. Est. 66% • Operating margin 57% vs. Est. 57% CapEx over next 3 years will be “even more significantly higher” than during the prior 3 years.

June PPI Headline PPI M/M -0.3% vs +0.00% est Core PPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% est Super Core M/M +0.1% vs + 0.3% est Bullish... Softer than expected.

Good Morning! Futures are up, with ES +10 and NQ +141. WTI crude is holding around $80 a barrel.  Yesterday, we got a softer than expected read on inflation from the CPI, and this morning we will get another read on inflation with the PPI, which is due this morning before the bell.  $AAPL is leading the Mag 7 this morning.  $ASML is up 3% this morning after reporting strong Q2 2026 earnings results that beat expectations on EPS and Revenue. They also raised full year guidance for the second time in 2026, driven by continued strong AI related demand for their chipmaking equipment. They make critical tools that are needed to manufacture advanced chips. They said that they plan to increase production capacity by 30% in each of the next 2 years.  The other chip equipment makers are moving with $ASML: $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC The chips are showing some strength this morning with $INTC outperforming the broader sector. $INTC is up 3% this morning after receiving a positive shout out from $ASML in their Q2 earnings release. $ASML stated that Intel has begun using their most advanced High NA EUV lithography machine in production. This is solid validation for Intel’s process roadmap, foundry push, and competitive positioning in advanced chips.  $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang stated that their next generation AI accelerator systems were in production and on track for delivery to customers, responding to reports that manufacturing snags may delay its rollout. I don't see any other notable activity this morning. The market is waiting on the PPI data.

$ASML just reported... Numbers beat guidance across the board. Q2 sales: €9.3 billion Net income: €2.9 billion Both above forecast Then they raised the full-year outlook - €43 to 45 billion for 2026... But here's the real signal - Order intake was so strong in the first half that they're adding 30% to next year's EUV lithography capacity!! Investigating another 30% on top of that for 2028. That's not a company hedging, That's a company that can't build fast enough... $ASML doesn't design chips, They build the machines that make it possible to build the chips. Without ASML, $TSM doesn't exist. Without $TSM, nobody's AI chip gets made (or a VERY large percentage) Another layer of the same bottleneck.... Same story as $TSM earnings tomorrow. The AI doubters keep waiting for the numbers to break... They keep not breaking.

$GOOGL signed a virtual power purchase agreement with Cypress Creek Energy for the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas, its largest U.S. solar and battery storage project, intended to supply clean energy credits for its data centers and slated to come online in phases by 2029.

Warsh is about to speak youtube.com/live/HBmbc_ZAy…

June CPI Y/Y +3.5% vs. +3.8% est Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.8% est. This is bullish. Futures are flying with ES +40 now.

Chips up, software down