@NateSilver538 I've yet to find a way to get confidence ratings from ChatGPT that aren't wildly poorly calibrated.
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Thomas Proctor
309 posts
I do think it took longer than usual (~4 minutes) because I said I was getting a cup of coffee. Also, asking it for a confidence rating is often helpful so you can spot-check later, though it returned a 5 in all but three cases.
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This is not as hard as it sounds (most matches are obvious, e.g. "michigan-state" and "Michigan St") but ChatGPT (o1) did this perfectly on the first try. Becoming a real time-saver for various data-wrangling tasks, even those that require contextual knowledge.
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@mattyglesias "We also saw that northerners made nouns plural by adding an ‘S’ or ‘ES’ to the end of a word
like we do today. But in the south, people tended to make nouns plural by adding ‘EN’ to the
word like children and brethren."
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@mattyglesias You don't even need to go that far back, just look Middle English: historyofenglishpodcast.com/wp-content/upl…
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@charlesallen With that record, how does this driver get insured?
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💯 On Monday, a child was struck in a crosswalk in Ward 6 by a driver swerving around a car at 🚦, leaving her with broken toes & tire marks on her leg. He was simply issued a ticket, even with his 80+ speeding tickets/$18K+ in fines he owes. He shouldn’t be driving in DC. 1/2
The Hill is Home@theHillisHome
A common thread for parents getting their children across town is just how dangerous crossing the street can be. Rage, aggression, threats, honking, you name it: parents and guardians have seen and heard it all and it doesn’t change year in and year out.
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@MaxCRoser @paulg @mattyglesias Are there *any* OECD-wide trends that are consistent throughout individual countries over this time scale?
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@MaxCRoser @paulg @mattyglesias This feels like a pretty sketchy argument to me: "I took this data set and split it up 38 ways and the trend isn't consistent in the split" - I'd be shocked if there aren't noisy country level trends.
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Very broad nature of the decline makes me suspect "the phones"
Derek Thompson@DKThomp
What is HAPPENING here? Between 2012 and 2023, it appears that average OECD reading, math and science scores have declined consistently. This is not (just) about pandemic learning loss. It’s not about one US city. It’s not even just the US. This is the entire developed world.
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@ShabazzStuart @NYC_DOT I hear people cite this as one of the reasons they don't bike in NYC, and it pains me. If you can find a proper home for your bike overnight, all you need is to learn how to use a good U-lock; probably with a chain if you work the night shift.
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@ProctorChap @NYC_DOT What kind of bike do you use? But yes, generally class 2 bike parking (racks) are really just for short term utilization.
Brooklyn, NY 🇺🇸 English
Devastating. This is a person who has likely given up on cycling. Sidewalk racks are really for <2 hours…anything greater needs more protection.
@NYC_DOT citywide secure bike parking program cant get here soon enough.
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@ShabazzStuart @NYC_DOT I have a surly LHT. It's not a beater bike, but it's also not a $$$ racing or ebike. I can't say I'd leave my bike longer than 10 hours or so, but that's just as much because of weather damage as theft risk.
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@mattyglesias I smell some p-hacking. The men's difference isn't statistically significant, and the women's is just barely under statistical significance of 0.1, but the post doesn't mention controlling for multiple hypothesis.
The effect is too small to measure with this data.
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Empty nest men with kid(s) are happier than childless men but for women it’s the opposite. The gender gap on this has been growing.
ifstudies.org/blog/does-havi…
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@cashandcarrots @_HannahRitchie They aren't farming cereal crops to feed to their livestock, they're just using unfarmed pasture.
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@_HannahRitchie The 200 million pastoral livestock farmers, mostly in the developing world, may wish to have a word....
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As countries get richer they tend to use less of their crops for human food, and more for animal feed & biofuels.
In poorer countries, supplies are tighter and they can't afford the inefficiency.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-…
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@bradwaites @WallStreetSilv I'm impressed that you managed to find a source for the crazy bullshit number.
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Another Great Depression or Worse?
🔊
"We currently are earning less and spending more (adjusted for inflation) than at the worst point of the Great Depression" 🚨🚨🚨
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@bikenewyork @NYC_DOT Someone should really tell @googlemaps that it's a reasonable bridge to bike across!
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@thechrisgold @ShawnGarcia_NYC That being said, the world would be a better place if we all agreed that everyone needs to wear long underwear in the winter, we set our thermostats low, and don't need to waste all this time changing layers.
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@thechrisgold @ShawnGarcia_NYC Have to agree with Chris on this one. All this talk about warm/impermeable pants just sounds sweaty. All my layers stay in the bag for when I'm walking to lunch.
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What are the essentials you recommend for winter bike commuting? #bikenyc
Manhattan, NY 🇺🇸 English
@ShawnGarcia_NYC Honestly never seen enough ice in NYC to justify it.
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I wonder if folks usually opt for some studded tires and if they feel like it really makes a difference in NYC?
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Rolling average # of citibike rides starting or ending in Manhattan CB 10 over the preceding year. Look at that pandemic spike!
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@BrandonWC @sodapoppizza @akadouri @openstreetmap When they put in the protected lane/reduced the number of Willis lanes, GM decided that Willis needed separately mapped Northbound and Southbound car traffic to reflect the median they added. The Northbound was never properly connected to the bike lane.
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@ProctorChap @sodapoppizza @akadouri @openstreetmap OSM based routers seem to handle Willis Av just fine too
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@sodapoppizza @BrandonWC @akadouri @openstreetmap I think that the issue here - and the issue on Willis Ave - is that these two way bike lanes really need to be mapped as separate streets. They're physically separated and have different direction and turn restrictions, so they really need to have separate map data.
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@sodapoppizza @BrandonWC @akadouri @openstreetmap Completely agree that it's legal - I've done it before and it seems at least as reasonable as crossing the median.
Just providing the explanation for why the directions services are insisting on *not* doing it.
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