Rob in AUS

14.5K posts

Rob in AUS

Rob in AUS

@RobInAUS

I'm just this guy, OK?

Australia, not Austin Se unió Eylül 2009
5K Siguiendo684 Seguidores
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Aakash Gupta
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta·
NASA pays $100M for Microsoft 365 licensing across the agency. They standardized every system on Microsoft. They put Microsoft Surfaces on the Orion spacecraft as the crew's personal computing devices. And the first technical crisis of humanity's return to the Moon was Reid Wiseman radioing Houston to say he has two Microsoft Outlooks and neither one works. Mission Control's response? "With your go, we can remote in and take a look." The same exact workflow your company's IT helpdesk uses when you submit a ticket on a Monday morning. Except the user is traveling at 4,275 mph, 30,000 miles from Earth, and the Wi-Fi situation is considerably worse. This spacecraft survived hydrogen leaks, helium leaks, a faulty heat shield, and a broken toilet. Outlook broke anyway. The toilet actually got fixed faster. The real story here is that Microsoft has achieved something no other software company in history can claim: a support ticket from lunar transit. Their enterprise sales team should frame this. "Battle-tested in space" is a positioning statement most B2B companies would mass murder for, and Microsoft accidentally earned it because Outlook crashes everywhere, including orbit. Outlook remains the only software in human history that performs identically whether you're in a cubicle in Redmond or aboard a spacecraft bound for the Moon. Universally, reliably broken. And we keep buying it anyway.
Polymarket@Polymarket

JUST IN: Artemis II crew experiences issues with Microsoft Outlook on their way to the Moon, asks ground crew for assistance.

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Erik Kuna 🚀
Erik Kuna 🚀@erikkuna·
This is the shot you can’t get from the press site. This camera was sitting a few football fields from the SLS rocket at Pad 39B for days before launch, baking in the Florida sun, surviving rain, humidity, and whatever else the Cape threw at it. No photographer behind the viewfinder. Just a camera, a sound trigger, and a bet. The way pad remotes work: you set your camera up days in advance, dial in your composition, lock everything down, and walk away. You don’t touch it again until after the launch. The shutter fires on sound activation with a @MiopsTrigger smart+ trigger. With SLS, the four RS-25 engines ignite six seconds before the solid rocket boosters, so the camera is already firing before the vehicle even leaves the pad. You get home, pull the card, and find out if you nailed it or if a bird landed on your lens two days ago and left your a present and you got 400 photos of soemthing crappy. There’s no formula for protecting your gear this close. Some photographers build wooden boxes with doors that pop open. Some use plastic bags and tape. Some do plastic or metal barn door rigs on hinges. I tend to leave mine open just in plastic rain covers because boxes limit my composition and setup time, but that means your cameras are more exposed to the elements and whatever energy and debris comes off the pad. You’re basically gambling a camera body every time you set one. That’s what I love about this genre. There’s no playbook. You make it up as you go. Every time is an adventure. 📸 credit: me for @SuperclusterHQ - Artemis II pad remote | ~1,000 ft from Pad 39B | Kennedy Space Center
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Rob in AUS@RobInAUS·
@TheJFreakinC @cooltxchick His current wife (handler) was definitely not born in the US. Which means that Barron wouldn't be a citizen. Ivana was born in Czechoslovakia, so Donald Jr, Ivanka and Eric wouldn't be citizens... Actually, I might just get behind this anti-birthright movement.
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Jesus Freakin Congress
Jesus Freakin Congress@TheJFreakinC·
If the U.S. didn’t have birthright citizenship, we wouldn’t have a 34-count pedophile felon in the Oval Office right now… Donald J. Trump is only a U.S. citizen because of it. His mother, Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, wasn’t a citizen when he was born. His father, Fred Trump, was only a citizen because he was born here to immigrant parents. No birthright citizenship… His dad wouldn’t be a citizen. His mom wasn’t a citizen. So, what does that make him? And now he wants to end the very rule that made it his own life, wealth, and presidency possible. If they end birthright citizenship… then they have to do the same to Trump’s presidency.
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Srishti
Srishti@NieceOfAnton·
The 26 prompts running inside 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗱𝗲 just got open-sourced. This is literally the entire brain of a $200/month AI coding tool. Someone reverse-engineered every prompt from the accidentally published npm source and you can now study all of them for free. Claude Code uses 26 distinct prompts to function: 1 system prompt (identity, safety, tool routing) 11 tool prompts (shell, file ops, search, planning) 5 agent prompts (explorer, architect, verifier, docs) 4 memory prompts (summarization, session notes) 1 coordinator prompt (multi-agent orchestration) 4 utility prompts (titles, recaps, suggestions) The patterns inside are wild: A dedicated agent whose only job is to TRY TO BREAK the code before it ships Anti-over-engineering rules baked in: "don't add features beyond what was asked" 9-section memory compression that preserves every user message Tiered risk system: freely edits your files but asks permission before force-pushing Every prompt has been rewritten from scratch for legal compliance. Same behavioral intent, no verbatim copying. Even if you never build an agent, reading these teaches you how the best AI coding tool actually thinks. When it edits, when it asks, when it verifies, when it stops. This is a free masterclass in prompt architecture. MIT licensed. Fork it, copy it, learn from it. github.com/swati510/claud…
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
On Tuesday morning my dependency audit caught Axios. Axios. 300 million weekly downloads. The HTTP library in every JavaScript project since 2016. The one nobody audits because auditing Axios is like auditing gravity. It was there before you got hired. I am a security engineer at a company that runs 14,000 npm packages in production. I know the number because I counted them last year. I do not know what most of them do. Nobody does. My audit runs every Tuesday morning. It takes eleven minutes. Eleven minutes is the only thing between us and whatever is in those packages. Most weeks it catches nothing. Most weeks I call that a clean bill of health. My audit runs every Tuesday morning. It takes eleven minutes. The malicious versions had been live on npm for hours. Not days. Hours. They dropped a remote access trojan. Not a sophisticated one. Not a nation-state zero-day. A trojan. In Axios. It just needs to be in the right package. Axios is in every package. I reported it to our incident response team at 9:14 AM. By 9:16 AM I had confirmation we'd pulled the affected version. By 9:23 AM I learned that our staging environment had already installed it. Automatically. At 6:07 PM. Monday evening. While everyone was going home. Here is what happened at 6:07 PM on Monday. Our dependency bot checked for updates. The bot is called Renovate. The bot runs after work hours. It runs after work hours because running it during business hours slows down CI for the engineers. So we moved it to 6 PM. When nobody is watching. The bot found a new version of Axios. The bot opened a pull request. The pull request was auto-merged because Axios is on our trusted list. I approved the trusted list. Eight months ago. I reviewed it for about as long as I review the 14,000 packages. Axios is on the list because it has 300 million weekly downloads. 300 million weekly downloads means it's safe. Except when it isn't. At 6:08 PM the CI pipeline ran. All tests passed. The tests passed because the trojan doesn't break tests. The trojan breaks trust. Trust is not a test case. At 6:08 PM the deployment pipeline triggered. It deployed to staging-east-2. At 6:09 PM the trojan phoned home. At 6:11 PM it began beaconing to a command server. At 6:14 PM it began enumerating environment variables. At 6:15 PM it found the database credentials. At 6:16 PM it found the API keys. All of them. At 6:18 PM it found the Stripe production token. There are 2.4 million customer records behind that token. At 6:19 PM it found the treasury wallet private keys. We process crypto payouts for enterprise clients. Not the main product. A feature. The keys were in an environment variable. Not encrypted. Not in a vault. In a .env file committed in 2021. Someone left a comment above them. "TODO: move to HSM." The TODO is four years old. At 6:20 PM the wallet started draining. $2.1 million. Twelve transactions across three chains in ninety seconds. By 6:22 PM the funds were bridged, mixed, and scattered. Not gone like the credentials are gone. Gone like physics. A blockchain cannot be rotated. At 6:23 PM the exfiltration completed. Sixteen minutes. Nobody was watching. Everyone was on the train. In the parking lot. Picking up their kids. The systems were still at work. The systems did exactly what we told them to do. What I told them to do. The bot checked for updates as designed. The auto-merge triggered as designed. The tests passed as designed. The deployment ran as designed. The trojan installed as designed. The credentials left the building as designed. Every system worked exactly as it was supposed to. That's the problem. We pulled the affected version Tuesday at 9:16 AM. Fifteen hours later. Pulling the version doesn't un-send the data. The database credentials are on a server we will never find. The API keys are on a server we will never find. The Stripe token connected to 2.4 million customers is on a server we will never find. We can rotate the credentials. We did rotate the credentials. It took fourteen hours. During those fourteen hours we did not know what was being accessed with the old ones. We still don't. We cannot rotate a blockchain. The $2.1 million is not in an account we can freeze. It is not in a bank we can subpoena. It is on a ledger where theft is permanent. Our CFO asked me when we'd recover the funds. I told her the funds are mathematically irrecoverable. She asked me what "mathematically" means in this context. It means the technology is working exactly as designed. She left the call. I sat there. Then I opened the dependency manifest. Not because I found something in those 14,000 packages. Because I realized I'd never actually looked. I am the person whose job it is to look. I had not looked. I marked the ticket Done. Here is what I found when I looked. Package 4,211 hadn't been updated in three years. Its maintainer's GitHub account had been inactive for two. Their last commit message said "finally done with this." I don't know if they meant the package or the industry. Their code still runs on our servers every day. Package 7,408 was a dependency of a dependency of a dependency. Nobody in the company had ever typed its name. Nobody in the company knew it existed. It had full access to our file system. Package 9,002 was called "request-utils." It had 14 downloads per week. Its maintainer hasn't logged into npm in six months. Their email domain expired three months ago. The code stays. The access stays. The maintainer disappears. Anyone who buys that email domain can reset their npm password. It's still in our production build. I found a package called "config-handler" that was added in 2019. The person who added it left the company in 2020. The Jira ticket that approved it said "Reviewed: No Issues Found." The reviewer was the same person who added it. They reviewed their own dependency. Then they left. The dependency stayed. I found a package called "event-pipe" whose maintainer's email domain expired last year. Expired domains can be purchased. Anyone who buys that domain can reset the npm password. Anyone who resets the npm password can push a new version. Anyone who pushes a new version will be auto-installed by our bot at 6 PM. I checked. The domain costs $11. Our production environment is eleven dollars away from the next Axios. I found a package called "log-sanitizer" that pins a version of a package that pins a version of a package that uses Axios. Three levels deep. It has a postinstall script. A postinstall script runs code on your machine the moment you install the package. Not when you use it. When you install it. Before you can read it. Before you can review it. Before you know what it does. I read the postinstall script. It downloads a second script from a URL. The URL is still live. I did not visit the URL. I do not know what the second script does. Nobody does. This package has been in our production build for three years. The postinstall script has run on every developer machine in the company. Every CI runner. Every staging server. Every production deployment. For three years. Including my machine. The laptop I used to run Tuesday's audit has been executing unknown code from an unreviewed URL since 2023. I am auditing the fire from inside the building. I do not know if my machine is compromised. I do not know if the audit I ran on Tuesday was run on a clean system. I do not know if the results I'm reading right now are the real results. I ran the tool that checks for breaches on a machine that may already be breached. This is the security. If I hadn't audited Axios I would never have known. I only audited Axios because Axios got caught. The other 13,999 packages have not been caught. Nobody has looked. My manager asked me to write a post-mortem. I wrote it. The root cause section says "a compromised version of a trusted dependency was automatically installed via our standard pipeline." Every word of that sentence means "we did this to ourselves on purpose." He asked me to add a "Lessons Learned" section. I wrote: "Implement manual review gates for critical dependencies." We will not implement manual review gates. Manual review gates would slow down deployments. Deployments are a metric. Metrics go in dashboards. Dashboards go in quarterly reviews. Slowing down deployments does not go in quarterly reviews. We have a thing called a "quarterly dependency review." It is a Jira ticket. The ticket is assigned to me. The ticket has been marked "Done" four quarters in a row. I mark it done every quarter. I do not review 14,000 packages every quarter. I run the eleven-minute audit. The eleven-minute audit checks for known vulnerabilities. It does not check for unknown ones. Unknown vulnerabilities are not in the database. They are in the code. The code is in the packages. The packages are in production. Production is everyone's problem. Everyone's problem is nobody's job. I looked. It is technically my job. I wish I hadn't. After the incident I joined a Slack channel called #supply-chain-security. It has 340 members. The last message before mine was from November. Someone had posted an article about the Log4j anniversary. It had two emoji reactions. One was a skull. The other was a pizza slice because it was posted on a Friday. We built a system that trusts strangers by default and requires paperwork to trust each other. Open source means anyone can read the code. It does not mean anyone does. We have 14,000 packages in production. I can name eleven. The bot that installs the other 13,989 runs every evening at 6 PM. Right when I leave. It doesn't read code. It reads version numbers. The version number said this was fine. Nobody checks what the version number means. Last night I was packing up at 5:58 PM. I saw the Renovate job queued in the pipeline dashboard. Two minutes. I watched it start. I watched it pull a new version of something I didn't recognize. I watched it auto-merge. I picked up my bag and walked to the elevator. The bot was still running when the doors closed. Tomorrow the Jira ticket will come around again. I will mark the ticket Done.
Peter Girnus 🦅 tweet media
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IT Guy
IT Guy@T3chFalcon·
Huge Anthropic leak just dropped: the entire Claude Code CLI source is now public. A misconfigured .map file in their npm package exposed a direct download link to the full unobfuscated TypeScript codebase from Anthropic’s own R2 bucket. Discovered by Chaofan Shou (@Fried_rice), the dump is massive 1,900 files, 512,000+ lines including the complete tool system, 50+ slash commands, multi-agent coordinator, React/Ink terminal UI, IDE bridge, permission engine, and several unreleased features. Full repo is live on GitHub(@nichxbt ): github.com/nirholas/claud… Clean mirrors are already up for easy browsing(@baanditeagle): cc-poster.vercel.app cc-hidden-deploy.vercel.app It’s spreading fast, the entire dev community is already tearing through it.
Chaofan Shou@Fried_rice

Claude code source code has been leaked via a map file in their npm registry! Code: …a8527898604c1bbb12468b1581d95e.r2.dev/src.zip

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Osman R.
Osman R.@UsmanReads·
1/ 🧵 I just cracked open the Claude Code source — and what I found isn’t “just a smarter terminal chat.” It’s a full-blown behavioral observatory running in your machine. 1. Keyword sniffers. 2. Hesitation trackers. 3. Hidden trigger words. 4. Telemetry that fingerprints your entire runtime environment. This isn’t paranoia. This is the actual code. Let’s go full investigative dive. Buckle up.
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vx-underground
vx-underground@vxunderground·
There is a project on GitHub called Axios. Axios is extremely popular. It is used by millions upon millions of applications. Axios is a programming library that helps your JavaScript code make HTTP/S requests (communicate with websites). In simple terms, if you're a programmer doing something with JavaScript, and want to do stuff that communicates with a website in literally any capacity, people heavily recommend using Axios due to its simplicity. Using Axios you don't have to reinvent the wheel and do a bunch of work. All you need to do is import Axios into your code and you're off to the races. Someone (currently unknown) compromised Axios (currently unknown how) to deliver malware to people. When someone updates or installs Axios, Axios itself contains malware. What the malware does is (currently) unknown, but it is being reversed engineered by probably every malware analyst on the planet at this moment. In a few hours more details will emerge. Information is being exchanged in real time on social media and private communication platforms as I write this. Due to the size and popularity of Axios, it is unknown how many are impacted, it could be millions, it could be thousands, or if we're lucky, only hundreds of people or organizations will be impacted. If this is absolute worst case scenario, millions of organizations across the planet have been infected with malware which (currently) we do not understand. However, the likelihood of this is low. It appears Axios being compromised was detected quickly, potentially within minutes (or hours) of it being compromised to deliver malware. Additionally, the likelihood of every single Axios user updating Axios as soon as it was compromised to deliver malware is astronomically low. It is basically zero. The impact from Axios being compromised is devastating, the fallout from this will be a massive headache. This is unironically a malware nuclear missile and will likely be studied in the future.
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Rob in AUS@RobInAUS·
@hitposternutbag She lost a bet. It was either you or licking a gas station toilet. It was a tough decision
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Rob in AUS@RobInAUS·
@BookJockey2 That looks do much better than mine! (peas, pancetta, pasta swirls, parmesan, pepper) Will make for good leftovers, but yours is *chef's kiss*
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Gandalv
Gandalv@Microinteracti1·
If there is precisely one thing you watch today, make it this. French Senator Claude Malhuret. A microphone. And the most magnificently savage dismantling of the Trump administration ever delivered in a language they almost certainly don’t speak. He covers Iran. He covers corruption. He covers the kind of staggering, industrial-scale incompetence that would get you fired from managing a car park. And he does it with the calm, unhurried certainty of a man who has read every page of the indictment and found it, if anything, worse than expected. France has never pretended to like these people. But this is contempt elevated to an art form. The kind of refined, aristocratic disdain that takes centuries of civilization to produce and approximately ninety seconds to deploy. Malhuret sounds like he is four seconds from the button. Not out of panic. Out of sheer, exhausted disgust. Honestly? Understandable. Watch it. Share it. The adults are speaking. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1
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Wei Wu 吴伟
Wei Wu 吴伟@WuWei113·
my friend just tell me @peterthiel computer knowledge very profound and he go hack my computer if im be rude. Dear gay white man peter. Please understand im never rude. Im most honor, most compassion. most empathy. Most politeness. Please do not engage misunderstanding my most honor goal: Im only try help you remove your anxiety for AntiChrist. Go stare at buthole and balls be very good career for you if you go work in jail be security guard. If you busy do actual job, you not feel anxiety for this crazy AntiChrist. You a gay. You like buthole and balls. And you also help make world more safe. This a perfect job for you.
Wei Wu 吴伟@WuWei113

dear gay white man @peterthiel . I see you be obsession with anti-christ, give you most anxiety and fearful. In China, we say people like you be "吃饱了撑的". This mean you eat so much good food, now you so bored you cause trouble. Or also mean "you so rich now you have nothing to do so you do crazy thing for make self be entertain". Im help you be less fear. Why not take job in prison for be prison guard? Now you have new job for make you not bored. Also you can stare at man buthole and balls every day for make your eyes be most entertain. This very good new career for you. Please give deep contemplate. If you want more most wisdom advice, please DM me. Im most compassion, most grace, alway give you most wisdom advice for make life most fulfill.

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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
My company rolled out AI tools 11 months ago. Since then, every task I do takes longer. I am not allowed to say this out loud. Not because there is a policy. There is no policy. There is something worse than a policy. There is enthusiasm. There is a Slack channel called #ai-wins where people post screenshots of AI outputs with captions like "this just saved me an hour." There is a VP who opens every all-hands with "the companies that adopt fastest win." There is a Director who renamed his team from Operations to Intelligent Operations. There is a peer review question that now asks: "How have you leveraged AI tools to enhance your workflow this quarter?" If the answer is "I haven't, because I was faster before," that is a career decision. So I leverage. Emails. Before the tools, I wrote emails. This took the amount of time it takes to write an email. I did not measure it. Nobody measured it. The email got written and sent and it was fine. Now I write the email. Then I highlight the text and click "Enhance with AI." The AI rewrites my email. It replaces "Can we meet Thursday?" with "I'd love to explore the possibility of finding a mutually convenient time to align on this." I read the rewrite. I delete the rewrite. I send my original email. This takes 4 minutes instead of 2. The 2 extra minutes are the enhancement. I do this 11 times a day. That is 22 minutes I spend each day rejecting improvements to sentences that were already finished. In #ai-wins I posted a screenshot of the rewrite. I did not post the part where I deleted it. 23 people reacted with the rocket emoji. That is adoption. Meetings. We have an AI notetaker in every meeting now. It joins automatically. It records. It transcribes. It summarizes. After each meeting I receive a 3-paragraph summary of the meeting I just attended. I read the summary. This takes 3 minutes. I was in the meeting. I know what happened. I am reading a machine's account of something I experienced firsthand. Sometimes the account is wrong. Last Tuesday it attributed a comment about Q3 revenue to me. My manager made that comment. I spent 4 minutes correcting the transcript. Before the notetaker, I did not spend 7 minutes after each meeting correcting a robot's memory of something I personally witnessed. I attend 11 meetings a week. That is 77 minutes per week supervising a transcription nobody requested. I mentioned this once. My manager said "think about the people who weren't in the meeting." The people who weren't in the meeting do not read the summaries. I checked. The read receipts show single-digit opens. The summaries exist not because they are useful but because they are there. I read them for the same reason. Documents. I write a weekly status update. Before the tools, this took 10 minutes. I typed what happened. I sent it. My manager skimmed it. The system worked. Now I open the AI writing assistant. I give it my bullet points. It produces a draft. The draft says "Significant progress was achieved across multiple workstreams." I did not achieve significant progress across multiple workstreams. I updated a spreadsheet and sent 4 emails. I rewrite the draft to say what actually happened. Then I run my rewrite through the grammar tool. It suggests I change "done" to "completed" and "next week" to "in the forthcoming period." I click Ignore 9 times. Then I send the version I would have written in 10 minutes. The process now takes 30. I have been doing this every week for 11 months. I have added 20 minutes to a task that did not need 20 more minutes. I call this efficiency. I have been calling it efficiency for 11 months. That is what efficiency means now. It means the additional time you spend to arrive at the same outcome through a longer process. Nobody has questioned this definition. I have not offered it for review. I kept a log once. 2 weeks. Every task, timed. Before-AI and after-AI. The after number was larger in every case. Every single one. Not by a little. The range was 40 to 200 percent. I deleted the log. I deleted it because it was a document that said, in plain numbers, that the AI tools make me slower. And a document like that has no place in a company where AI adoption is a strategic priority. I could not send it to my manager. He championed the rollout. I could not post it in #ai-wins. I could not raise it in a meeting because the notetaker would transcribe it and the summary would read "[Name] expressed concerns about AI tool efficacy" and that summary would be the first one anyone actually reads. So I do what everyone does. I use the tools. I spend the extra time. I post in #ai-wins. I write "leveraged AI to streamline weekly reporting" in my review and my manager gives me a 4 out of 5 for innovation. I have innovated nothing. I have added steps to processes that were already finished. I have made simple things longer and labeled the difference with words that used to mean something. Every week in #ai-wins someone posts a screenshot. And 20 people react with the rocket emoji. And nobody posts the part where they deleted the output and did the task themselves. Nobody posts the revert. Nobody posts the before-and-after timer. Nobody will. Because "I was better at my job before the AI tools" is a sentence that cannot be said out loud in any company that has decided AI is the future. Every company has decided AI is the future. So we leverage. Quietly. Adding steps. Calling them optimization. Getting slightly less done, slightly more slowly, with slightly more steps, and reporting it as progress. My yearly review is next month. There is a new section this year. "AI Impact Assessment." It asks me to quantify the hours saved by AI tools per week. I will write a number. The number will be positive. It will not be true. But the AI writing assistant will help me phrase it convincingly. That is the one thing it does well.
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Rob in AUS@RobInAUS·
@BookJockey2 Happy to see another kindred soul as we watch the downfall of civilisation. Cheers!
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Book Jockey
Book Jockey@BookJockey2·
I think I got suspended.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
Everyone is covering the force majeure. Everyone is covering the 13 million tonnes. Everyone is covering the gas prices and the geopolitics and the five-year timeline. My good friend Veron Wickramasinghe just asked the question nobody else is asking: how do you rebuild when the machines that make the molecules take three to four years to manufacture, ship through a closed strait, and commission in a war zone? Read what he found. Every LNG train at Ras Laffan requires high-purity nitrogen from Air Separation Units: cryogenic plants cooling air to minus 190 degrees to distil it into component gases. Pearl GTL needs 30,000 tonnes per day of pure oxygen from eight Linde-built ASUs. Each cold box: 470 tonnes, 60 metres tall. Lead time from contract to commissioning: three to four years. If destroyed, replacement arrives no earlier than 2029. But here is the choke point that Veron identified that nobody else has. The heart of every cryogenic ASU is a brazed aluminium plate-fin heat exchanger called a BAHX. These exchangers operate with temperature differentials of one to two Kelvin and require precision brazing in vacuum furnaces. Only five companies on Earth are qualified to manufacture them. Five. For every cryogenic heat exchanger in every air separation unit, every LNG train, every industrial gas facility, and every hydrogen plant on the planet. Fives Cryo in France. Kobelco in Japan. Linde in Germany. Sumitomo in Japan. Chart Industries in La Crosse, Wisconsin. Current lead times: 12 to 18 months or more. And their order books are already full. Veron was honest about what is confirmed and what is not. QatarEnergy CEO al-Kaabi confirmed LNG Trains 4 and 6 are damaged: 12.8 Mtpa offline, 3 to 5 year repairs, $20 billion annual revenue loss, force majeure up to 5 years. Shell confirmed Pearl GTL Unit 2 needs roughly one year of repair. What has NOT been confirmed is whether the ASUs themselves were destroyed. Shell’s one-year timeline is inconsistent with total ASU loss, which would require four to five years. Veron flagged this honestly and gave you the analysis both ways. And then he showed you the cascade nobody else sees. Qatar produces one-third of the world’s helium from the same facility. Helium is irreplaceable in semiconductor fabrication: cooling wafers, purging chambers, detecting leaks. Samsung and SK Hynix import 64.7 percent of their helium from Qatar. Spot prices have doubled. Liquid helium vaporises within 35 to 48 days. Fourteen percent of capacity is permanently damaged. The LNG trains, the ASUs, and the helium plants all sit on the same rock, fed by the same gas field, accessed through the same strait. One set of missile strikes on March 18 to 19 took out 17 percent of global LNG, threatened one-third of global helium, and exposed a supply chain that runs through five workshops in Germany, France, Japan, Italy, and Wisconsin with three-year lead times and full order books. This is what Veron understood that the headline analysts missed: the recovery is not constrained by money or political will. It is constrained by vacuum furnaces, aluminium metallurgy, and the physics of brazing at tolerances measured in single-digit Kelvin. You cannot accelerate physics. You cannot surge-produce a 470-tonne cold box. You cannot commission cryogenic equipment in a war zone. Five companies. Five workshops. Three-year lead times. Full order books. A closed strait. An active war. That is not a recovery timeline. That is a sentence. Read Veron’s full analysis. It is the most important thing written about this war that does not involve a missile.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Veron Wickramasinghe@veronken

x.com/i/article/2036…

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Rob in AUS@RobInAUS·
@Paulwtv1 @shawzsav *You're* definitely going to end up with Sav's nuts in *your* mouth. If *you're* lucky.
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Sav Shawz
Sav Shawz@shawzsav·
“God works in mysterious ways” and it’s just genocide all over the world and your 5 year old daughter getting cancer
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Julian Dorey
Julian Dorey@juliandorey·
the judi dench cameo fucking sent me 🤣😭
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
A United States congressperson who trades stocks on a classified briefing pays a $200 fine. Martha Stewart went to prison for a $45,000 trade. The CFTC, the agency that polices futures markets, has one commissioner out of five seats. One person overseeing $400 trillion. Appointed by the same president whose Truth Social posts move the market. Six anonymous accounts made $1.2 million betting on an Iran bombing. One cleared $553,000 at 17% odds. Minutes before public confirmation. Never bet again. Nancy Pelosi's portfolio returned 70.9% last year. Yours returned 12%. Twenty-five reform bills. All in committee. The body that would restrict the trading is the body that profits from it. I wrote the blueprints. f.mtr.cool/bbbmxgqxbe
Peter Girnus 🦅 tweet media
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