
Seneca
36 posts

Seneca
@SenecaTrades
Long/Short Trade Talk | Not financial advice | I speak my mind, don’t need your money, follows are great and satisfy my ego!












Where a Saudi company pumps desert groundwater, Arizona considers imposing limits latimes.com/environment/st…







I’ll take a stab at this. A lot of it is aligned with what we discussed in our initial macro memo two weeks ago regarding the Iran conflict (kryptonresearch.substack.com/p/the-markets-…) I’d say there’s a lot of upside risk as opposed to a strong view that we DEFINITELY go higher in coming weeks. A lot of that is to do with the fact that any ceasefire/regime change (optimistic) news can instantly reverse the ongoing trends of high oil and lower equities. Once that switch is flip it can kinda knock positioning out of this snooze it’s been in and wake up some bullish energy when investors with cash begin to see $NVDA at <20x earnings and $MSFT -30% off its highs. I mean if anything we are actually seeing bargains in the market on the top tier names for the first time since the 2022 bottom, and all it takes is an ignition. And the AI trade itself shows no signs of slowing…

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…










