Seneca

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Seneca

Seneca

@SenecaTrades

Long/Short Trade Talk | Not financial advice | I speak my mind, don’t need your money, follows are great and satisfy my ego!

Katılım Ekim 2025
11 Takip Edilen16 Takipçiler
Kevin Xu
Kevin Xu@kevinxu·
NEW TRADE: ALL IN $HLIT. Currently -2% lower than my own entry btw. They make broadband software for companies like Comcast, Charter, etc. I spent 2 hours researching the ticker here on 𝕏 and think it could be a good one. THESIS: Huge pull-forward demand to future-proof for an agentic AI world. Similar to $NOK but for broadband networks. Citrini shouted it out yesterday after hours x.com/citrini/status… which caused the +15% jump Agentic AI usage patterns will look quite different than previous networking demands (mostly one-way like video). So there's a huge push to modernize quickly. Their CableOS software is the easiest way to do it. The company is legit: - 98% market share - Revenue is up 87% YoY, 43% QoQ - 52% gross margins - Guidance raised to $475M - $495M - $43M in stock repurchases - Lots of insider, hedge fund, and robinhood buying - Stock price peaked at $157.50 back in 2000 🤯 They also sold their legacy low growth video business to focus on the high-margin software. Good focus. Catalyst is... price momentum honestly. Similar to $BAND over the last few weeks. Crossing fingers its the start of a multi-day run. I hate chasing. NGL I broke this rule here. Had to listen to my gut. Also worth experimenting with my own rules. Different markets demand different rules and not chasing this year has left me missing several good plays. We'll see how good my gut still is. My doctor says its healthy. --- As a reminder: this is my challenge account where I restarted with $35k to go all-in swing trading 1 stock at a time to $10M again. Now at $61k. As always, please do your own research with your own independent thinking and risk tolerance and decide your own buys and sells. (sorry for the delay, was dealing with a power outage and had to run to a cafe)
Kevin Xu tweet media
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@pepemoonboy Not sure this will be seen, but it’s almost certainly $BDC. Fits the networking theme like $NOK $BB and they are one of the few that have a full stack IT/OT system from WiFi to cabling and optics. It’s baffling the market hasn’t picked up on it, but it’s a 100%+ move waiting.
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Pepe Invests
Pepe Invests@pepemoonboy·
What’s one stock that no one’s talking about yet that you think will skyrocket in the coming year? I want real alpha that few are aware of like the next $NOK, $BB, $SHAZ, $NBIS, $MU, etc. I will compile all the responses and will put together a ranked list of the most undervalued gems. I don’t want to hear about the stocks that have already 10x’ed. Lets see what FinX can come up with 😎🚀
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Seneca retweetledi
Abhi
Abhi@KryptonCEO·
Nasdaq is up 10% in 7 months and 70% in almost 5 years… an astonishing 11.2% CAGR. And people will tell you this is the next dotcom bubble with a straight face. More money is lost fearing a crash than in the crash… always. $SPY $QQQ $NQ $SPX
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
Yeah, not direct data center stuff I guess, but just broad grid infra angle, company has it in their lap but execution just seems like it’s always a quarter away for the last year. Direct DC exposure on a shitco would have to go to $AIRJ for me… prettt cool company with $GEV backing for water repurposing and cooling at data centers
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Paul Narrenschiff
Paul Narrenschiff@TheNarrenschiff·
@SenecaTrades I will have to take a look. Knew it back in the day as a smart meter play, didn't know they had meaningful data center revenue.
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Paul Narrenschiff
Paul Narrenschiff@TheNarrenschiff·
Is $ATKR the only industrials ShitCo with data center exposure that is fucking up enough to not go to the moon?
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
There’s just no way $ARM goes higher after ER? I mean it basically counted $AMD numbers as its own
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@KryptonCEO Well articulated, gotta agree with this given the drawdowns on some of these names
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Abhi
Abhi@KryptonCEO·
Getting a feeling we're headed towards a repeat of 2024 when this is all over... A hated rally where a lot of stock pickers do worse than the indexes with massive rotations back into big tech. 2023-2024 was just endless Mag7... its coming again. $MSFT $META $NVDA $AMZN $GOOG
Abhi tweet media
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NathanZ
NathanZ@Elon_fanboy77·
arm believe dc cpu tam will be > 100b by 2030, if $amd capture 40% of that market, that's 40b annual revenue, giving operating margin of 40%, that's 16b of pre-tax income, and $6-$7 of after-tax annual eps.multiply that by 30, we see epyc alone will be worth $180-$210 per share.
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@KryptonCEO Nice as always, great to have independent research like this not just banks
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Abhi
Abhi@KryptonCEO·
Krypton Research Maintains $ARM at “Long” Raises price target $215 -> $260 The launch of the ARM AGI CPU has fundamentally changed the course of the company’s business, setting the stage for massive market share gains in CPU, a market forecasting intense demand acceleration with inference and agentic AI. The company’s financial forecasts for the next five years exceeded even our most bullish expectations, highlighting the immense size of the CPU market and ARM’s penetration ability. We revised forecasts as follows: 2026-2028: Maintained revenue forecasts roughly in line, with slight downward revisions in revenue to bring overall trajectory in line with a scenario that likely sees at least some cannibalization of sales. Pulled forward AGI CPU sales slightly in 2027 to reflect initial customer orders and raised EPS forecasts slightly. 2029-2031: We have added three more years to our forecast period under the company’s new guidance, kept forecasts in line with mgmt.
Abhi tweet media
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@KryptonCEO Happy I took some of the names you guys went with in that piece, looks like another killer call
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Abhi
Abhi@KryptonCEO·
Space basket on a tear here overnight on news of SpaceX IPO coming sooner than expected… $RKLB $PL $ASTS We based our full space basket thesis exactly off of this. We highlight a fully space supply chain set to benefit with SpaceX as the catalyst. (Full thesis in replies)
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@zerohedge Feels like a can’t miss buy
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@KryptonCEO Kinda similar things
Seneca@SenecaTrades

@Citrini7 All it takes is that ceasefire and SOH traffic to resume and equities kinda get a jolt that’s been missing for months even before this conflict

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Abhi
Abhi@KryptonCEO·
There’s that upside risk I talked about in this post… $SPY $SPX $GLD
Abhi@KryptonCEO

I’ll take a stab at this. A lot of it is aligned with what we discussed in our initial macro memo two weeks ago regarding the Iran conflict (kryptonresearch.substack.com/p/the-markets-…) I’d say there’s a lot of upside risk as opposed to a strong view that we DEFINITELY go higher in coming weeks. A lot of that is to do with the fact that any ceasefire/regime change (optimistic) news can instantly reverse the ongoing trends of high oil and lower equities. Once that switch is flip it can kinda knock positioning out of this snooze it’s been in and wake up some bullish energy when investors with cash begin to see $NVDA at <20x earnings and $MSFT -30% off its highs. I mean if anything we are actually seeing bargains in the market on the top tier names for the first time since the 2022 bottom, and all it takes is an ignition. And the AI trade itself shows no signs of slowing…

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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@Citrini7 All it takes is that ceasefire and SOH traffic to resume and equities kinda get a jolt that’s been missing for months even before this conflict
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Citrini
Citrini@citrini·
Does anyone have a very strong view as to why stocks will be higher 4-8 weeks from now? It’s starting to feel a bit one-sided (not that stocks can’t go down when it’s like that)
Citrini@citrini

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

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HANK
HANK@hekyoda·
Name this chart pattern on $SPX
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Seneca
Seneca@SenecaTrades·
@akrebscycle @Mr_Derivatives Pretty much what the guy above said, we’ve been seeing pretty small, consistent down moves. Haven’t really even seen a -2%+ day, so it’s very controlled selling (as opposed to panic)
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
The last time the 10yr yield was at 4.40%, the $SPX was trading at 6,200. Or another 5% lower from current levels. I’m just the messenger.
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