Cranjis McBasketball

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The luck-adjustments are specific to +/- data, where we sub in expected results instead of actuals wherever possible to reduce the noise created by shooting variance. FTs are an easy example. If a 75% shooting team shoots 100% with me on-court and 50% with me off-court, I was unlucky. Or if I drew a double, kicked the ball out to you, and you were fouled on a 3, then I was subbed out before you hit FTs I was also unlucky (and someone else checking in will get a boost in +/- for a play they were on the bench for). We kept our descriptions very brief. I'd suggest reading about each on their pages to get the full context for what they incorporate. Neither luck-adjusts, but both incorporate multiple years of data (LEBRON is single year, multi-year LEBRON is multi-year) in order to increase sample sizes. DPM: darko.app/about DRIP: theanalyst.com/articles/nba-d…

@Tim_NBA Ah! Thanks, makes sense, to what extent do you guys luck adjust variables - And secondly on the D-DPM and D-DRIP (on court) analysis which one is more relevant b/c the glossary says the account for similar things but there's some value discrepancy Do they luck adjust at all?

LA's ePPP in yesterday's game was a lot higher than you'd expect from their Scheme KPIs, as measured by my Scheme Score. It was the 3rd largest difference in the 2 years I've tracked it. The projected ePPP is 0.02 off from expected on average since I've tracked it.

@kwakujr23 He’s a high impact defender that looks even better in raw unadjusted data. If you look at the D-EBRON data point it’ll show how that materializes with non-luck adjusted defensive impact.

@Tim_NBA Tim quick question, was looking at the metrics and SGA is in the mid 70 ish percentile this year in D-LEBRON but in the Defensive impact luck metrics he's like 96th percentile How do we interpret that?

The Hawks T10 Most Efficient Half-Court Actions 1. 4-Out 1-In Inverted PNR: 1.42 PPP in 24 poss 2. Horns Angle PNR: 1.4 PPP in 35 poss 3. Stack Inverted Spain PNR: 1.38 PPP in 47 poss 4. Stack Curl: 1.33 PPP in 21 poss 5. 5-Out Flip: 1.3 PPP in 133 poss

@joaburner No clue. This is from me logging each play every game

@Tim_NBA What are his averages on this type shot in Dallas tenure?

I have Luka at 6/7 on heavily contested pull-up 3s in yesterday's game in my logging, his best on the season. He's shot 34% on those in LA in his 2 seasons, and his only better game was a 7/8 performance last season against Chicago on 3/22/25. He averages 1.7 makes per game.

In terms of style of offense for LA lately: Ball Screens are up Off-Ball Screens are down Iso play is down Putbacks are way up

I ignored blocks, which would drop the %s a tiny bit

New largest playcalling on/off gap I've seen: Luka this month With him on-court: 50% Organized Offense Rate With him off-court: 66% OOR Prior to March Luka's on/off OOR was -1% (~no difference).

The best route on a given possession for LA are running sets & targeting coverages. We want good process. But LA's offensive ceiling for games won't be reached, regardless of how good the sets are & how often they're run, if the freelance attack is as bad as it'd been for JAN & FEB.

A critical development this month: The Lakers freelance offense is good again, for the first time in a LONG time. And it's not just a shot making bump. There's been a big rise in the expected PPP (& actual too). The freelance TO% dropping to season lows recently is the reason.

From the stats they show each game it appears Invesco QQQ is Synergy in a trenchcoat

That was the most OT game I've watched lol. I got the pick right but I feel more validated it went to OT. And good fight from the Zips but if you can't hit a layup or 3 you can't pull an upset. Bummer against a smaller Tech team than normal, especially w/the foul trouble.

Kentucky vs Santa Clara was the game that took me the longest to make a pick among any round of 64 game And Akron over Tech is one of the largest upset picks I landed on. It should be a fun first window!

17 *total* zone defensive possessions from the Lakers defense during this 8-game win streak is intriguing. LA's man defense is holding up.

@FredJoel99 No, though we do have badges for clutch players over in Player Profiles

@Tim_NBA Team do you have stats comparing the efficiency on offense-defense of the team in normal time vs clutch time?... I think it will show a bad habit of our players: they can turn on and off that efficiency when they want (clutch time for example)

Aggregate defensive and offensive impact this season from each of LA's current starting 5 of: Luka Reaves Smart LeBron Ayton Luka and Smart have SURGED recently on defense.

I love the double gap to attack off the handoff on this

Marcus Smart's 3PT% by month: OCT: 18% NOV: 27% DEC: 35% JAN: 38% FEB: 33% MAR: 38% 33% pre-ASB vs 37% post-ASB. His slow start was obviously underperformance vs what to expect. Hovering around 35-36% on really strong shot quality is more of where I'd expect him to be.

I like this view of how player impact has trended over the course of the season! We can see how Cade Cunningham has steadily increased his offensive impact over time. Jokic's defense was trending up, but is now headed back down. SGA has recently taken a steep step down on D.