Cranjis McBasketball

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Cranjis McBasketball

Cranjis McBasketball

@Tim_NBA

🏀 Xs & Os • Team & Agent Consulting • @The_BBall_Index Founder • Lakers Exceptionalism Pod

Hanging with models (the math ones) Katılım Mayıs 2012
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
If you want more Tim & Tom content, our Discord server is the place to be. Example: with 24 bonus pods since the start of the regular season, that's an extra pod every ~2 games. Join any premium tier to get into the Discord for good: tinyurl.com/supportlakerse…
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Shax
Shax@ShaxNBA·
Knicks expected points per shot (ePPS) and expected offensive rating (eORTG) in the half court the last 2 games 1.27 ePPS | 122 eORTG 1.29 ePPS | 120 eORTG The Knicks have had FOUR eORTG games above 120 this season
Maxence Gevin 🇫🇷🇦🇲@MaxenceGevin

@ShaxNBA 126 half court offensive rating but this is just an overheating lmao

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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Related to this, here’s LA’s ePPP* by game from their Off-Ball Attacks: G1: 0.89 G2: 1.05 G3: 1.04 G4: 1.10 G5: 0.87 G6: 0.91 And the LA counter to HOU tactic ratio: Games 2-4: 73% Games 1, 5, & 6: 39% When JJ & Co. had the higher ground tactically with the off-ball screens, they worked. When Houston did, they didn’t work. *Expected Points Per Possession used to adjust for shooting variance
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA

Lakers R1 down screen sets (110 of em): When Houston ran a tactic (top lock, jam, etc.) w/no counter from LA: 0.98 ePPP When LA ran a counter: 1.32 ePPP Huge gap in possession quality (ePPP used so shooting variance isn't coloring analysis) LA countered 55% of the time

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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Notes I’d have in terms of executing this: - On-ball, defend with your chest and sit on his pull-up w/o fouling. Shade him towards his right (he’s been less effective going right when driving on comparable shot diet) - Hustle out of there as the extra helpers if/when SGA picks up his dribble - Don’t lose shape as one of the help guys if a cut happens. Trust the back line. If you open the door SGA will drive through it. - Weak side can’t worry about an SGA drive. Trust the 2/3 guy front line to hold. Weak side your attention is on cutters + flare screening - If being pinned-in, try to “split” the screener so they aren’t sealing you in or out of the paint
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA

Here's the deterring "flood" help we'll likely see LA deploy against SGA isolations. It's not a hard double. The goal is to deter drives and sit on his pull-ups. OKC's counters will be 1) cuts to open space in the middle of the paint and 2) pin-in flares for skip pass 3s/drives

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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Here's the deterring "flood" help we'll likely see LA deploy against SGA isolations. It's not a hard double. The goal is to deter drives and sit on his pull-ups. OKC's counters will be 1) cuts to open space in the middle of the paint and 2) pin-in flares for skip pass 3s/drives
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Liam
Liam@CryptoTravelb·
@Tim_NBA Is it crazy feels like the Lakers are the Varsity team and OKC is the JV team
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Run alone it’s an off-ball attack where coverage fit isn’t a factor. There have been times this season LA’s paired it with other action before or at the same time, but lately it’s been just this concept as the entirety of a play. It did function well as a top lock avoiding set in R1 with how the first screen forces the defense to guard a cut just prior to the second screen.
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Jevan Gurubatham
Jevan Gurubatham@JevanG777·
@Tim_NBA What coverage does this fit for. Also would you consider this an off ball action or on ball action. Wish they can run this in their early offensive package without a play all
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
The Lakers ran Finland* 5 times in R1 and scored 0 points but generated 4 open shots *Back screen -> Down screen combo
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Lakers R1 down screen sets (110 of em): When Houston ran a tactic (top lock, jam, etc.) w/no counter from LA: 0.98 ePPP When LA ran a counter: 1.32 ePPP Huge gap in possession quality (ePPP used so shooting variance isn't coloring analysis) LA countered 55% of the time
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
The ball and player positioning makes the initial back cut a non-factor The lack of a down screen after the flex cut lets the D load up some more against the flex This is a lot of time spent to generate nothing
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
This one needs to go. The set itself yielded: Bron catch a step inside the 3PT line w/9 on the clock Bron catch a step inside the 3PT line at :10 Bron catch a step inside the 3PT line at :13 Bron catch at the block at :10 Bron catch a step inside the 3PT line at :07 The only switch put Eason on Bron (same guy as the past 4 plays)
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA

LA's run a new set twice so far this game, including to open the game. Away Reject into a flip, swing (IIRC), then flex cut post feed. Odd setup for that end state. I don't love the use of time compared to scoring actions. I'm guessing we'll see another variant soon w/different action. Probably screen the screener action after the flex.

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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
On here I mentioned: 1) LA's avg MOV (-29) was much worse than expected due to OKC shooting overperformance 2) The expected MOV was still awful (-13) 3) There is a style of play OKC's (relatively) struggled against 4) Playing that way would be a big approach shift for LA
Jovan Buha@jovanbuha

Lakers-Thunder series preview w/ @Tim_NBA: -- LA's ISO & PnR defense vs. SGA -- LA's post-ups/bullyball w/ LeBron -- Why LeBron, Austin Reaves, Lou Dort, Ajay Mitchell & Deandre Ayton are X-factors -- Possession, 3PT and paint battles -- Prediction Watch: youtube.com/live/PmGGUy-Pd…

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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Here's some of that aggressive doubling from LA vs OKC. Not as much of a sample.
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
If LA goes switch heavy they'll likely use this. If OKC counters this help well they'll score well, and we'll need to see either more aggressive doubles (like we saw LA use vs KD; hasn't worked for teams vs OKC big picture) or pre-rotating (haven't seen from LA).
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Inverted ball screens for LeBron are a way to push OKC towards show & recover or switching defenses (not drop). I'd like to see plenty this series. Here's all we had to look at from the regular season matchups for Bron inverted P&R vs OKC. 1 play.
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
LA has the most uphill battle possible against OKC, but I think we nailed some of the key tactical battles and swing players that’ll need to hit for LA to have any shot. Got a little nerdy with screen coverages, help types, offensive concepts to induce the right kinds of D, etc.
Jovan Buha@jovanbuha

Lakers-Thunder series preview w/ @Tim_NBA: -- LA's ISO & PnR defense vs. SGA -- LA's post-ups/bullyball w/ LeBron -- Why LeBron, Austin Reaves, Lou Dort, Ajay Mitchell & Deandre Ayton are X-factors -- Possession, 3PT and paint battles -- Prediction Watch: youtube.com/live/PmGGUy-Pd…

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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
You're not an NBA rotation player at that position if you can't space, pass, nor defend.
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Cranjis McBasketball
Cranjis McBasketball@Tim_NBA·
Not great. Not awful. Also just one angle to look at these roles and not close to a holistic eval.
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