Amit Patel

you get a short period when you're young to hyper gamble into elite status and if you fail you just end up wage cucking for life

A NYC bar is doing a promo for Game 1 of Knicks-Spurs: If NY wins, the bar picks up your tab (up to $100 per guest). If the Knicks lose, you pay your own tab. The bar putting $5k on the Knicks to win on Kalshi. The idea is a proof of concept for hedging on prediction markets.

Anthropic is up 137% since Claude Mythos was announced 2 months ago

Maybe that culture is fine for you at linear, and it looks like it’s working great for you! You’ve created something worth over a billion dollars in 7 short years, that’s something very few people on the planet have done before. But sometimes there are big problems that need solving, and there is more creative thinking, not less, that happens with contact with the big problems. In our case, creating the financial operating system that owns the creation, transfer, financing, and investment of risk, using AI to automate the paperwork of the most regulated entities to make every business and person a little more profitable, waste a lot less time, and be more protected, is a big problem. Maybe there were super geniuses at the Manhattan Project working 1 day per week like zen masters. I doubt it though, because if you’re obsessed with a problem, you work hard. Nowhere did I or do I glorify lack of sleep (I always think sleeping right and exercise are very important), and different people have different visions, cadences, and ways they want to run their companies. And that’s ok, but you attacking our style based upon sound bites when we are solving a really important problem, by market sizing probably the biggest problem large language models can solve, isn’t it.

If all the smartest+most rational ppl got their own civilization on it would be LEAGUES better than this one, just more functional in ways we can't even imagine, and like 90% of it would be downstream of their ability to understand incentives and ripple effects

The fallacy of this is that more creates more. More hours, more hiring, more something. And it is true in a sense. If you put in more work, more work will happen. But I think for most startups, the leverage is really in how differently you approach the problem, how well you cultivate your team, and the strategy. Any large company can outspend you on hours. They have thousands or tens of thousands more people, spending more hours. If hours worked were the metric, every large company and government organization would always win and do the best work. More hours, better output. This thinking is often representative of younger founders, where the startup becomes their identity and life. They have a hard time doing anything else, and cannot understand that your work is not the person that is you. But activities outside of work can grow you as a person too and make you do better work. I’ve never worked this way. As a designer, I always saw the need to take a step back, to take a break. At times, I might work 12 hours or 16 hours, or whatever amount was needed, but it wasn’t the norm. You just can't grind design, you need inspiration. But taking that step away from the work, would give me more perspective, inspiration and I could approach the problem differently or I could just see the solution. Grinding is never good for any creative problem, and startups or creating new products are often mostly about creative problem solving. Grinding works ok for email jobs, or where you just executing on very clear playbook. With Linear, we’ve never worked this way. We work reasonable hours, 5 days a week. All of us founders have families. Many of our employees have families. I personally stop every evening, spend time with the family, cook dinner for the family, eat dinner together, and focus on things outside of work. Sometimes I work in the late evenings or weekends, but to me the pride is that I don’t need to. Company should be succesful without it. My goal is to build a company that is sustainable in the long term, and doesn’t require heroics or personal sacrifices every single day. There are times when our team is heroic. Launches, incidents, some other work that just needs to be done. They will work late into the night because they know it is the right thing. But we don’t require that every day or every week, and the more this happens, the more I think it is a failure of our company and leadership. The team and the leaders should always keep a reserve to use when something is needed. Our thinking was also that quality, which we value, doesn’t emerge from working more or stressing people more. It emerges when you create the conditions for it to emerge. Often it is the appreciation, space, time, and how the person feels. A person who is rested will do better work. I wouldn’t attribute much of our success to working a lot. The success came from having clear thinking, ideas, and focus to do the right things. I sometimes wish we could move the culture more toward a Zen master. Real mastery is not exerting the most effort. It is achieving the outcome with the least necessary effort.

Heard that some firms already making QR intern offers for summer 2027. I'd suggest if you're in that situation, first of all don't let them pressure you. Second, if you're a "rising junior" and you want an HRT offer, get in touch. Willing to talk early for exceptional candidates.

Hot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.

ANTHROPIC VALUATION: $965B WALMART VALUATION: $940B ANTHROPIC REVENUE: $20B WALMART REVENUE: $725B BUT AI IS NOT A BUBBLE, RIGHT?