halfdome

@Sam_Badawi why couldn't he purchase on April 3rd? Because markets were closed, the purchase price reflects the April 2nd closing price - this in effect was an open purchase - bullish

I released a post yesterday suggesting that $OSCR CEO Mark Bertolini bought 1M shares on the open market and added to his position. That was incorrect. The purchase did occur, but it was not an open-market buy. I should have verified the filing more carefully. Here is what actually happened. On April 3, Bertolini had 5.7M+ performance stock units vest into shares, and on April 6 the company withheld 1M shares for taxes. That same day, he purchased 1M shares directly from the issuer in a private placement at $11.92, which offsets the tax withholding but does not represent open-market buying activity. So while he did acquire shares, this should not be interpreted as discretionary buying in the market. Just pointing out the facts.

@investingwithac CSPs my man!

$OSCR My unmatched conviction will prove victorious upon execution. EVERY SINGLE day I have purchased more.

$OSCR Bears say'n Bertollini's purchase amounts to nothing b/c it's private placement - don't listen to their FUD - the PSU vested April 3rd, when markets were closed. Mark's price on the form is $11.92 which was the closing price of April 2nd = open market purchase price

$OSCR Pic of Bertollini and gang with AI and their metal tier shift strategy we have the tools we have the talent it's Millah time! #MLR a strong earnings beat looks to be in the mix May 6th

@InvestorSince21 it's MLR time!

At current levels, Oscar Health $OSCR offers the most asymmetric risk/reward setup in the entire market. A tech-native insurer with national scale, improving MLR, and a path to sustained profitability that legacy carriers can only envy. Sophisticated capital is already accumulating. The re-rating cycle is just beginning!

@TheInvestorJavi @investingwithac $27 by end of 26...outside shot of $70s by 2030

$OSCR is about to F**KING CRUSH… Q1 earnings. What’s crazy… my estimate is conservative…

@BUGUR53177887 finance.yahoo.com/news/raymond-j…

@halfdome when and where?

$OSCR - the Raymond James analyst covering OSCR? He ranks in the top 10% on Tip Ranks - he's been covering healthcare for over 35 years - calls OSCR "the best house in a tough neighborhood" upgraded OSCR to outperform $18 pt

@investingwithac looking at their historical variance from guidance Q1 is typically ~6-7pp below so...Q1 74-76 is probably realistic they also have more gold tier members - so mid 70s MLR isn't as bearish as initially thought

$OSCR 2024 MLR trend throughout the year to achieve 81.7% MLR… (in photo) Guidance for 2026 is 82.4-83.4, meaning on a full year basis there is 0.7-1.7 difference. 2026 numbers could look similar… but at the same time, if they are factoring in the 2025 experience, we could see a similar start to 2024 at ~74% MLR, but a decent increase throughout the year to sit full year within 82.4-83.4… It is fair to assume a Q1 26 MLR between 73.8-74.8 in my opinion, likely close to 74.8… I have been running more “fool proof” analysis on MLR on a PMPQ basis based on medical costs and gross premiums to calculate any potential inflation/adjustments YoY from age, metals, etc. I have run 3 or so different scenarios, which are all mid to high end points. My conclusions make sense, but at the same time, I just don’t see publicly available data that is actually truly 100% usable, but rather directionally usable, because each company has different costs, networks, pricing structures etc… I’d love to here all of your estimates :)

@InvestorSince21 @Cubsz2016 @lngtermcapital This irrelevant talk on mlr is getting out of hand - yes mlr isn't the sole metric but print a high mlr and i guarantee you oscr sells off, likewise a low mlr won't jump the stock either but q2's mlr print is a good leading indicator - there's sg&a and r/a to consider as well

@Cubsz2016 @lngtermcapital Why?

Over the weekend, I spent a bit of time diving into Oscar Health $OSCR's possible quarterly MLR figures, and I'll be presenting my findings later today in the form of a thread.

@derekquick1 i like this trade but i think $OSCR reward's the health insurance trade 2-3x vs $UNH or $MOH - same sector, same play but higher payout -

$UNH UnitedHealth Group sub $250s is $META sub $100. Low prices cure low prices with FCF & Buybacks.I have bought a bunch in the $230s & $250s now. Not many cared about Meta in the $80s ,this post will probably get < 100 likes like my META post at $88. x.com/derekquick1/st…

Someone dropped $2.36M on Oscar Health Jan 2028 $40 Calls this past Friday 3/27 nasdaq.com/articles/notew… - that's an unusually high one day activity for $OSCR -

$OSCR A low Q1 MLR print is necessary but not sufficient. Q2 is where the truth shows up as deductibles burn through. Normal years run +3.7–4.7pp QoQ. A jump in that range confirms pricing and tier mix are working. Above 5pp and bears stalk bulls

@investingwithac Congratulations!

BIG NEWS! After posting about $OSCR $ZETA $IREN and $SOFI for months… I am now monetized! As promised for all of your continued support, I will be giving away the first monetization check. I have no clue how much this would even be, but it is a cool milestone!!! I will likely due some sort of random follower/comment name generator when the day comes :) Thank you all for your continued support :)

@investingwithac maybe just maybe

Once you understand seasonality, you know Q1 is going to be incredible for $OSCR … if you didn’t watch my latest YT video on it, there are TWO key items that influence MLR in Q1… 1. Medical loss ratio is essentially, medical claims/net revenue… from a high level, few more variables… Medical costs are seasonally lower in Q1 because members are further away from their deductible. 2. Price increases that were implemented for 2026 OEP. Oscar implemented a 28% weighted increase which almost directly impacts the denominator of the MLR calculation. Those two factors considered, MLR for Q1 to achieve guidance will be WELL BELOW 80, very low 70’s…

@investingwithac nice share - good legwork - thanks!

This would seriously be huge due to 2026 pricing already set in stone… This would increase affordability and stability for a certain pool of members, reducing churn….

$OSCR $CNC $HUM ACA SUBSIDY UPDATE - CSR’S “try again to add cost-sharing reductions for Obamacare.” These are bullish for enrollment and affordability for members. Cost sharing reductions reduce the out-of-pocket expenses for members within the lower income bracket… This is essentially another subsidy on top of the baseline subsidies.

$OSCR AI agentic model pushin' costs down - 2026 could be the inflection year

2026E guidance midpoints Revenue: ~$18.85B SG&A: $3,073M SG&A % revenue: 16.05% $OSCR Jaws Effect

@growthrapidly Market in wait and see mode after 2025 blew up MLR/RA. Even a good Q1 print unlikely to move price higher than mid teens since seasonally $OSCR posts mid 70 MLRs in Q1. So we wait for Q2 print. Bulls just wait and accumulate...

Why isn’t $OSCR already trading at $20 - $30? 2026 revenue expected: $18.7 billion - $19 billion (vs $11.7 billion in 2025). 
Profitability expected in 2026. What is the market missing?”🤔

@investingwithac thank for the work - appreciated

Q1 Earnings… oh my gosh… @Rhad_Trading and I have been finalizing some of the numbers… And for Q1… $OSCR is going to report some wicked nice margins due to seasonality… I have a detailed comprehensive overview in the OSCR workbook… but will go super in-depth in a substack within a few days…