Rhad Trading

I'd never thought of it in this way, I always looked at it as removing discretionary spending by those with large disposable incomes and stopping people striving for more. Second and third order effects are never anticpated by those charged with our governance My pension pot is ludicrous for my age due to being forced into this by the marginal tax and the withdrawal of free childcare >£100k. I can't see myself needing to work past 50 now It has inadvertently solved the lifestyle inflation problem for me!

'Just put £60k into your pension every year to avoid the tax trap above £100k - hang on, why are our most productive taxpayers taking early retirement in their 50s??!!?!?!'

Indeed you were, I'd resigned myself to no news/catalyst until earnings, but glad to be wrong. I'm at break even now, fully allocated, likely overallocated so just going to ride this wave and there will be no selling until margins are >5% OR thesis broken My timeline is now flooded with people coming out of the woodwork on this but you've been one of the core ones that never stopped. Poor @investingwithac probably didn't sleep last night! I absolutely loved the timing on this 6th April - Mark Buys 7th April - Earnings announced, quiet period starts, purchases and sales of shares by insiders are taboo 7th April + 6 hrs - Form 4 filed

I was too conservative.. $OSCR already breaking out the yellow downtrend 🚨 🚨

@Adam_Mack_ @frombroke2bull @jimcramer Tell me you are 26 years old without telling me you are 26 years old. You weren't there!

@Rhad_Trading @frombroke2bull @jimcramer Blockbuster is wasn’t filming movies/shows, providing the actors, owning the sets, owning the movie theaters, owning the dvd distribution companies, etc. completely different situation

Good rates for Medicare. Snare some CVS or UNH

@frombroke2bull @Adam_Mack_ @jimcramer Yes it is

@frombroke2bull @Adam_Mack_ @jimcramer "They’re just mailing DVDs our stores are everywhere, we’re not worried about some tiny streaming upstart" Yeah I thought the same thing until I spotted everyone 10 years younger than me was watching it rather than normal TV

We are ~500 jobs total posted since November so roughly half filled. loads of it seems to all be new teams as well not shoring up already existing operations. I also feel some of these jobs are taking longer to fill than my experience would tell me they should which could be positive if they are discerning about their hiring or negative if they are displaying negative signs to potential employees. Or maybe their internal recruitment teams are useless! I love this one in particular.. what appears to be a new role for the Director of Newsroom content and one of the responsibilities is to build the Newsroom team

$OSCR SINCE JANUARY 19TH OSCAR HAS INCREASED JOB POSTINGS BY ~45% A FIRST QUARTER BULLISH SURPRISE IS FULLY ON MY RADAR. ALL OF Q1 IS COMPLETE, AND JOBS CONTINUE TO SURGE.

@investingwithac @EngM0H @TheRonnieVShow @grok You mean didn't know flashing was a thing or that you didn't know you could get more excited? Either way, don't listen to me. I'm an absolute crank! This is how I imagine it went in Josh's head

@Rhad_Trading @EngM0H @TheRonnieVShow @grok 😂 I won’t @ grok to you again… haha… Now I’m getting even more excited than I was before, didn’t know that was possible 😂 11%+ margins 👀

$OSCR This confirm that guidance will be achieved for upcoming Q1 earnings

@EngM0H @Rhad_Trading @TheRonnieVShow @grok extend on Rhad’s comment, what does he mean? Is that a thing?

Wake me when they announce that the reconcilaiton bill contains the text from HR6703 for: SEC. 103. TREATMENT OF HEALTH REIMBURSEMENT ARRANGEMENTS INTEGRATED WITH INDIVIDUAL MARKET COVERAGE. As that's the bit that decodes to "ICHRA is now CHOICE, it's now covered by legislation and Mark B and Co can unleash their cannons and board the Spanish Galleons, plundering their overpriced small group healthcare plans" This is effectively a copy/paste from the OBBB that went to the Senate, there is a video last year, an interview with CNBC where Mark slips and says in reference to the OBBB where he said it was "Part of what WE put in that bill" which I've linked here. The implication being, it was Oscar and/or other Insurers who lobbied for it. The provision ended up being stripped last minute, There was another interview I can't locate where he said (and I paraphrase) "I believe they scored it incorrectly for budgetary reasons and it was removed" I would presume they have rectified this with the Ways and Means Committee for the next time it comes up. The reason being small group healthcare costs are already tax advantaged so moving the spending decision to the individual does not change anything in the budget as it's the same or fewer $ being spent on similar products just in a different way" youtu.be/RkO3NGXIb2o?si…

@Rhad_Trading Basically yes haha, and the “great healthcare plan”

$OSCR $CNC $HUM ACA SUBSIDY UPDATE - CSR’S “try again to add cost-sharing reductions for Obamacare.” These are bullish for enrollment and affordability for members. Cost sharing reductions reduce the out-of-pocket expenses for members within the lower income bracket… This is essentially another subsidy on top of the baseline subsidies.

I rented for years in the UK, early on it was out of necessity but in the middle it was a choice because I needed to be mobile, I didn't know how my career and family would grow. The instant I needed stability, when I knew exactly what I would need forever I bought and now I have (relative) price certainty being eaten by inflation until retirement and the choice to downsize when we need it to unlock capital. So renting can work, if it is for the right reasons which is a holistic question that is different for every person or family unit. I do not feel that I threw any money away when I did it as the reasons always made sense. They make sense no longer for me so I bought

The average UK mortgage is £200,000 at 5% over 25 years. Total repayment? £350,000. You borrow £200K and pay back £350K. £150,000 straight to the bank. For nothing. Then you pay to fix up the house. Stuff breaks. You pay insurance monthly. Fees when/if you sell the property. And we act like renting is throwing money away. There is a strong argument for renting.

Hanlon's razor applied to market cap, it's just not big enough to be on their screens. There is no secret manipulation more than liquidity from market makers in action and a bit of the greeks at play. I love the head canon that its a secret cabal manipulating price but no major team is watching this. The institutional ownership story is driven mainly by insiders owning via institutions, index funds and OpenAI connections. It is not noticed, it is trading at a stupid p/s and forward p/e ratio and in circa 44 days faces will turn to plasma and maybe even quarks once their Q1 results appear.

I think $OSCR truly could be a rare opportunity where retail could be ahead of the institutions… AI + Healthcare is an underrated combo… - Agentic AI is proving efficient - 28% weighted price increase - Major member jump to 3.4 million - 20% Risk Adjustment guided - SG&A guided lower by ~1.5% which is HUGE - new “Marketplace” being launched - Over 3 dozen LLM’s Guidance is balanced all things considered, trading super cheap… I can imagine because of 2nd half of 2024 and 2025’s market morbidity, institutions are likely playing it safe, but will pile in once we prove profitability… But also… maybe institutions are keeping the price down and quietly accumulating, dark pool is EXTREMELY active… Who knows 🤷‍♂️ But when the Market cap - True cash is roughly equivalent to 2027 expected earnings… And trading at ~0.3x P/S… All it takes is one strong catalyst to send us to $20+

$OSCR LISTEN: 10%+ operating margins for Q1 is not unrealistic…. Yeah, that headline makes me sound delusional… but it’s supported and makes sense… First, Q1 is seasonally low for MLR. In Q1 2024, they reported an SG&A % of 18.4, and full year of 19.1%… In Q1 2024, meaning they reported ~7.4% in margins… with MLR of 74.2… In 2026, they guided for 15.8-16.3% in SG&A costs… MAJOR SG&A DECLINE… over 2%… Assuming 2024 MLR of 74.2 + 16% SG&A… You get 9.8% operating margin… (with slightly high-ish Q1 MLR) Let that sink in… (And my MLR models indicate lower than 2024 Q1 is likely) I’m just speechless. 😶

I know you didnt ask me but I've got 3 hours on a train to kill! 1 - Fear, I've talked to many employees with group insurance and there a level of "The employer is responsible for choosing my insurance" prevelant. This is why group insurance would be last to fall as people fear change and have cultural bias ingrained. I sympathise with this. This is why small businesses who havent offered insurance before are the first target. 2 - Awareness, so few are aware of this. HR departments responsible for insuring 500+ people that I've talked to have never heard of this and that will take money and time to change. This is why large group insurance is the last to fall. The broker network is key here as they are on the front line. 3 - Risk, its not codified. There is a bill with the senate that could do this, HR6703 but with all the other drama in the Senate it's stuck in committee. It does however appear to be reconciliation ready. At the moment the entire legal structure could be washed away with the stroke of a pen rather than having to be repealed by statute in congress. 4 - Complexity, my understanding is its a ball- ache having to find qualified plans in your network and requires submission of receipts. I think what Mark and Oscar are doing in Las Vegas will tackle that with electronic data exchange. I also understand there are real landmines in the offering such as people potentially being worse off in edge case scenarios if they are offered something they never previously had but my understanding here is limited.

@Rhad_Trading @investingwithac That’s fits the potential announcement of $Oscar in Las Vegas …. AC what you think on the article on the limitations of ICHRA ?

$OSCR ICHRA MEMBERSHIP DOUBLED - New revenue modeling coming as well… Regular ACA Plans + ICHRA Data “So you're going to start seeing us over time report 2 different kinds of revenue in the model. where we're going to have revenue coming out of the conversion of employers that have defined contribution, the whole brokerage work that's done there, and then also membership that we capture inside our own health plan. So the ICHRA opportunity is much larger than just the membership, although our membership did double this year. And given what happened in the individual market relative to rates, there was some reluctance on employers to jump in now. We need to show that we can stabilize that marketplace and get more people in. So that's sort of the lay of the land on ICHRA.” - Q4 2025 earnings

We can't compete with the analysts when it comes to the mega corps, their resources dwarf ours and the metrics they have access to would blow our minds. They predict revenue, margins, FCF to 3 decimal places regularly and small beats/misses are punished However, we are competing with the dross when it comes to $OSCR and other relatively small caps. We will pile through filings and interviews in detail far greater than they are capable of and see trends they miss. This is weaponised autism at its finest

$OSCR Friendly reminder, most of these “analysts” expected 18.7-19 billion in revenue in 2030+ just a few months ago. That is hilarious.

The article says Democratic Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont is proposing this, a solid blue state promoting a Trump policy. Its naturally bipartisan! "Six states are considering a version of an ICHRA tax credit bill: Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, Ohio, Connecticut and New Hampshire. The National Conference of Insurance Legislators, an organization of state legislators serving on insurance committees, is working to approve a model tax credit law based off of Ohio’s bill that other states can emulate. The model bill could be put up for a vote as early as April" The thesis just keeps getting stronger, a few states passing these bills will create momentum and other states will follow creating a tidal wave of small business enrollees. Democrats get an invincible individual market with a diversified risk pool that can't be touched and Republicans get a free market healthcare model driven by consumer choice just like Donald Trump wants all at the same time I'm not American so I must be missing something as this just seems like a no brainer to me

@investingwithac They're clearly on maneuvers in getting ICHRA to the masses politico.com/news/2026/03/1…

Thank you, I kind of mangled the MLR proof as it's a bit too handwavy but in reality it's too complex to walkthrough without a spreadsheet and referencing lots of sections in their filings so would just bore everyone to death. On the SG&A bit I am happy I got the point across succinctly and stand by that analysis Earnings cant come fast enough to me

Excellent points : That’s the discussion I had with AC . On a pure “marginal basis” the generate $7 Billion additional revenue with adding 1 million members ( granted the old remaining members get rerated +28% ) . They had 300 open positions recently so it is massive scale. For the SGA they have same cost on 28-% more revenue plus the scale for the additional members. They wi massively beat the q1 numbers but also metals shift is lower ARPU but higher profitability. They went long with bronze to spread the SGA with not too much risk . The market and analysts are skittish as industry went south … but the components herd look very positive

I asked ChatGPT for a realistic Q1 outcome based on guidance and seasonality… “Realistic strong Q1 scenario for $OSCR: Revenue: ~$4.9B MLR: ~75% (seasonally low) SG&A: ~17% → Net income ≈ $314M → Profit margin ≈ 6.4% → EPS ≈ $1.20 for Q1 If this trajectory implies ~$3.50 FY EPS, a 20× P/E supports a ~$70 price target.” NOTE: Seasonality of health insurance means Q1 is strong, and it trickles down to Q4…. So a “high” profit margin makes sense for Q1…

It is unsustainable! Thats the seasonality in ACA insurance. Revenue will likely tick down over the year as SEP wont be as strong (this was guided by Mark B) , MLR will tick up but I also think you might mean on full year results which I do agree with to a certain extent. Razor margins that depend on the rosette colour of who is in the White House can do that. But, ACA is the wedge not the goal. Disrupting group insurance is the goal and that will not be ignored. If all else fails, share buyback but we are a long way from that

@SoleSurvivore @Rhad_Trading It would actually be the opposite :) if this repeated in 2027, they’d have to give rebates (too much profit) :)