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my experience with gpt 5.4 in openclaw - pls continue - yes pls do that - yes do what i told you to do - yes continue - please do what you said you're gonna do - did you do that? no. then pls do it. just pure pain

I actually wrote this back on March 18th to explain things to my Korean friends, but I'm posting it here on X as well since so many ppl still seem to get it wrong. Global Total Crude Inventory = Commercial MOI + Commercial Available Inventory + Surplus crude + SPR The world looks like it’s overflowing with oil, but prices don’t wait for all 2 billion barrels of global inventory to vanish before they spike. Every single time oil crossed $100/bbl, it was the same story. Take the US as the prime example. Right now, US commercial crude inventory is sitting around 440 million barrels, but that number physically cannot drop below 280–300 million. You might say, "What the hell are you talking about? Just draw it down, you idiot lol." But let’s look a bit closer. That "Commercial MOI" I mentioned stands for Minimum Operating Inventory. This isn't oil sitting in a refinery tank or a hub ready to be used instantly. MOI is the volume physically locked in the system you cannot pull out. It’s the baseline required just to keep the entire US oil system running. Here are the main components: 1) Linefill: This is the oil filling the entire pipeline network across the US. bc of the "push from one end to get out the other" structure, about 110–120 million barrels must stay in the pipes at all times. 2) Tank Bottoms: This is the volume at the very bottom of storage tanks that pumps literally can’t reach. Estimated at around 80–90 million barrels. 3) In-transit & Working Stock: The minimum volume sitting on tankers, barges, or waiting at refineries to be blended and fed into the units. Without this base feed, the refinery simply stops. Just combining Linefill and Tank Bottoms (Unavailable Stocks) gives you ~200 million barrels. Add the Working Stock needed for operational flexibility, and ~300 million barrels becomes the actual hard floor. I used the US as an example, but you probably get the point by now. The "Global Total Onshore Inventory" figure includes all that MOI—Linefill, Tank Bottoms, etc. Since it’s global, we don't have the exact numbers, but this MOI accounts for 60-70% of the total figure. Minimum Working Stock is another 20-25%. Most of those 2.3 billion barrels are scattered across tens of thousands of kilometers of pipelines and the bottoms of thousands of storage tanks. The vast majority is essential just to keep the system alive; it’s physically impossible to gather it all in one place and dump it onto the market. Therefore the actual available crude—the delta actually moves prices and balances—is much smaller than ppl think. That’s why the oil market sees massive price swings even over a quarterly shift of just 1mb/d. Think of the "buffer" I mentioned as cash on hand for immediate liquidity. The rest of those 2.3 billion barrels? That’s like your factory equipment. No matter how much equipment you have, if you run out of cash, you go bankrupt. The oil market is the same; once that tiny sliver of available crude vanishes, the system hits a crisis and faces desperate bidding. Right now, we are in the phase of burning through the "excess cash" in the corporate account. And we're doing it very fast. Next we'll start dipping into personal savings. But like most business owners, there isn't actually much cash in the personal account. It’ll run dry in no time. Now imagine if you knew as long as you kept the factory running, you could eventually pay off the debt and fix the cash flow—but right now you don’t have a single cent of available cash. What happens? To keep the factory from going under, you’d do anything to scrape together cash for the electric bill and payroll. You’d sell your kid’s iPhone or even put your wife on the street—you’d do anything desperate to get that cash. Once we hit that stage, prices go absolutely vertical. Bottom line: when the buffer is gone, you have to start withdrawing all available commercial inventory. The pace will be lightning fast. Even the ppl who were sitting on the sidelines hoping for the war to end will start bidding desperately bc they need oil 'right now'. I’m not just acting calm or pretending I’m okay with this taking a long time. Even if you believe a long position is the way to go, there’s a specific process and setup must be cleared for the environment to force prices up. And it won't take that long. Until then I expect vol to be absolutely violent in both directions. #oott #com

"Make no mistakes DO NOT HALLUCINATE. YOU ARE AN EXPERT SOFTWARE ENGINEER"

Robert Mueller died last night. He was 81 years old. He had a wife who loved him for sixty years. He had two daughters, one of whom he met for the first time in Hawaii, in 1969, on a few hours of military leave, before he got back on the plane and returned to Vietnam. He had grandchildren. He had a faith he practiced quietly, without performance. He had, in the way of men who have seen real things and survived them, a quality that is increasingly rare and increasingly mocked in the country he spent his life serving. He had integrity. And tonight the President of the United States said good! I have been sitting with that word for hours now. Good. One syllable. The thing you say when the coffee is hot or the traffic is moving. The thing a man who has never had to bury anyone, never had to sit in the specific silence of a room where someone is newly absent, reaches for when he wants the world to know he is satisfied. Good. The daughters are crying and the wife is alone in the house and good. I want to speak directly to the Americans reading this. Not the political Americans. Just the human ones. The ones who have lost a father. The ones who know what it is to be in that first hour, when you keep forgetting and then remembering again, when ordinary objects become unbearable, when the world outside the window seems obscene in its indifference. I want to ask you, simply, to hold that feeling for a moment, and then to understand that the man you elected looked at it and typed a single word. Good. This is not a country having a bad day. I need you to understand that. Countries have bad days. Elections go wrong. Leaders disappoint. Institutions bend. But there is a different thing, a rarer and more terrible thing, that happens when the moral center of a place simply gives way. Not dramatically. Not with a single catastrophic event. But quietly, in increments, until one evening a president celebrates the death of an old man whose family is still warm with grief, and enough people find it acceptable that it becomes the weather. Just the weather. That is what is happening. That is what has happened. The world knows. From Tokyo to Oslo, from London to Buenos Aires, people are not angry at America tonight. Anger would mean there was still something to fight for, some remaining faith to be betrayed. What I see, in the reactions from everywhere that is not here, is something older and sadder than anger. It is the look people get when they have waited a long time for someone they love to find their way back, and have finally understood that they are not coming. America is being grieved. Past tense, almost. The idea of it. The thing it represented to people who had nothing else to believe in, who came here with everything they owned in a single bag because they had heard, somehow, across an ocean, that this was the place where decency was written into the walls. That idea is not resting. It is not suspended. It is being buried, in real time, with 7,450 likes before dinner. And the church said nothing. Seventy million people have decided that this man, this specific man who has cheated everyone he has ever made a promise to, who has mocked the disabled and the dead and the grieving, who celebrated tonight while a family wept, is an instrument of God. The pastors who made that bargain did not just trade away their credibility. They traded away the thing that made them worth listening to in the first place. The cross they carry now is a costume. The faith they preach is a loyalty oath with scripture attached. When the history of American Christianity is written, this will be the chapter they skip at seminary. Now I want to talk about the men who stand next to him. Because this is the part that actually breaks my heart. JD Vance is not a bad man. I have to say that, because it is true, and because the truth matters even now, especially now. Marco Rubio is not a bad man. Lindsey Graham is not a bad man. They are idiots, but not bad, as in BAD! These are men with mothers who raised them and children who love them and friends who remember who they were before all of this. They are not monsters. Monsters are simple. Monsters do not cost you anything emotionally because there is nothing in them to mourn. These men are something more painful than monsters. They are men who knew better, and know better still, and will get up tomorrow and do it again. Every small compromise they made had a reason. Every moment they looked the other way had a justification that sounded, at the time, almost reasonable. And now they have arrived here, at a place where a president celebrates the death of an old man and they will find a way, on television, to say nothing that means anything, and they will go home to houses where children who carry their name are waiting, and they will say goodnight, and they will say nothing. Their oldest friends are watching. The ones who knew Rubio when he still believed in something. Who knew Graham when he said, out loud, on the record, that this exact man would destroy the Republican Party and deserve it. Who sat next to Vance and thought here is someone worth knowing. Those friends are not angry tonight. They moved through anger a long time ago. What they feel now is the quiet, irrecoverable sadness of watching someone disappear while still being present. Of watching a person they loved choose, again and again, to become less. That is what cowardice costs. Not the coward. The people who loved him. And in the comments tonight, the followers celebrate. People who ten years ago brought casseroles to grieving neighbours. Who stood in the rain at gravesides and meant the words they said. Who told their children that we do not speak ill of the dead because the dead were someone's beloved. Those people are tonight typing gleeful things about a man whose daughters are not yet done crying. And they feel clean doing it. Righteous. Because somewhere along the way the thing they were given in exchange for their decency was the feeling of belonging to something, and that feeling is very hard to give up even when you can no longer remember what you gave for it. When Trump is gone, they will still be here. Standing in the silence where the noise used to be. Without the permission the crowd gave them. Without the pastor who told them their cruelty was holy. They will be alone with what they said and what they cheered and what they chose to become, and there will be no one left to tell them it was righteous. That morning is coming. Robert Mueller flew across the Pacific on military leave to hold his newborn daughter for a few hours before returning to the war. He came home. He buried his dead with honour. He served presidents of both parties because he understood that the institution was larger than any one man. He told his grandchildren that a lie is the worst thing a person can do, that a reputation once lost cannot be recovered, and he lived that, every day, in the quiet and unglamorous way of people who actually believe what they say. He was the kind of American the world used to point to when it needed to believe the story was true. He died last night. His wife is alone in their house in Georgetown. His daughters are learning what the world is without him in it. And somewhere in the particular hush that falls over a family in the first hours of loss, the most powerful man and the biggest loser on earth sent a message to say he was glad. The world that loved what America was supposed to be is grieving tonight. Not for Robert Mueller only. For the country that produced him and then became this. For the distance between what was promised and what was delivered. For the suspicion, growing quieter and more certain with each passing month, that the America people believed in was always partly a story, and the story is over now, and there is nothing yet to replace it. That is all it needed to be. A man died. His family is broken open with grief. That is all it needed to be. Instead the President said good. And the country that once stood for something looked away 🇺🇸 Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

Millennials are the elite generation because they cranked out 12-page essays the night before they were due. No ChatGPT. No Claude. Just lo-fi beats playing in the background, Black coffee at midnight, footnotes that were somehow correct, and pure delusion. Grade was an A minus. Period.

@bradmillscan I just told openclaw to use opus to write a skill to read X using X API. Worked oneshot

How in the hell are these accounts claiming to run entire companies w/ OpenClaw. I just spent 1.5 HRS trying to get my claw to use X API for reading tweets. FAIL We have a whole SOP documenting exactly how to do it from previous failures. I can’t imagine running 10 of these…

vibecoder asks claude code to build a chat app, gets a working prototype in 20 minutes, immediately tweets "just killed slack and discord"… brother you don't even know what a distributed system is. you don't know what database replication means. you have no idea how websocket connections behave at scale or what happens when 50k people are online at once and someone's message needs to show up in 200ms across 3 continents slack has engineers making $300k+ who have spent a decade solving problems you don't even know exist yet. race conditions, eventual consistency, message ordering, presence systems, file storage at scale, search indexing across billions of messages your app works on localhost with 2 connections. that's not the same thing as "killing slack" that's a college homework assignment the prototype is maybe 0.5% of what makes these products actually work in production. the remaining 99.5% is infrastructure, reliability, edge cases, and years of iteration on problems that only surface when real humans use your thing at scale and the worst part is the confidence. "yeah its not perfect but ai one-shotted it, just need to adjust a few things and deploy" - the few things you need to adjust IS the entire product. thats like pouring a foundation and saying you basically built a skyscraper, just need to adjust a few things ai is genuinely incredible for building tools and prototypes. i use it every day. but there's this weird thing happening where people who have never shipped anything to real users at scale now think the hard part of software is writing the first 200 lines of code it never was bro

@TencentAI_News What are they using openclaw for?

The charm of #OpenClaw! 🌟 Tencent's public setup service event drew in 60+ year-olds incredible enthusiasm! From retired aviation technical engineer to librarian, they’re looking forward to embrace AI agents. Stay curious, stay digital!

Imagine letting another man "fill" you. This is why I exclusively market buy.

Your outtie is very generous. Just this week, your outtie donated 70% of their portfolio to a struggling Latin American country named Argentina.

I spent 10% of my life contributing to the development of the #VisionPro while I worked at Apple as a Neurotechnology Prototyping Researcher in the Technology Development Group. It’s the longest I’ve ever worked on a single effort. I’m proud and relieved that it’s finally announced. I’ve been working on AR and VR for ten years, and in many ways, this is a culmination of the whole industry into a single product. I’m thankful I helped make it real, and I’m open to consulting and taking calls if you’re looking to enter the space or refine your strategy. The work I did supported the foundational development of Vision Pro, the mindfulness experiences, ▇▇▇▇▇▇ products, and also more ambitious moonshot research with neurotechnology. Like, predicting you’ll click on something before you do, basically mind reading. I was there for 3.5 years and left at the end of 2021, so I’m excited to experience how the last two years brought everything together. I’m really curious what made the cut and what will be released later on. Specifically, I’m proud of contributing to the initial vision, strategy and direction of the ▇▇▇▇▇▇ program for Vision Pro. The work I did on a small team helped green light that product category, and I think it could have significant global impact one day. The large majority of work I did at Apple is under NDA, and was spread across a wide range of topics and approaches. But a few things have become public through patents which I can cite and paraphrase below. Generally as a whole, a lot of the work I did involved detecting the mental state of users based on data from their body and brain when they were in immersive experiences. So, a user is in a mixed reality or virtual reality experience, and AI models are trying to predict if you are feeling curious, mind wandering, scared, paying attention, remembering a past experience, or some other cognitive state. And these may be inferred through measurements like eye tracking, electrical activity in the brain, heart beats and rhythms, muscle activity, blood density in the brain, blood pressure, skin conductance etc. There were a lot of tricks involved to make specific predictions possible, which the handful of patents I’m named on go into detail about. One of the coolest results involved predicting a user was going to click on something before they actually did. That was a ton of work and something I’m proud of. Your pupil reacts before you click in part because you expect something will happen after you click. So you can create biofeedback with a user's brain by monitoring their eye behavior, and redesigning the UI in real time to create more of this anticipatory pupil response. It’s a crude brain computer interface via the eyes, but very cool. And I’d take that over invasive brain surgery any day. Other tricks to infer cognitive state involved quickly flashing visuals or sounds to a user in ways they may not perceive, and then measuring their reaction to it. Another patent goes into details about using machine learning and signals from the body and brain to predict how focused, or relaxed you are, or how well you are learning. And then updating virtual environments to enhance those states. So, imagine an adaptive immersive environment that helps you learn, or work, or relax by changing what you’re seeing and hearing in the background. All of these details are publicly available in patents, and were carefully written to not leak anything. There was a ton of other stuff I was involved with, and hopefully more of it will see the light of day eventually. A lot of people have waited a long time for this product. But it’s still one step forward on the road to VR. And it’s going to take until the end of this decade for the industry to fully catch up to the grand vision for this tech. Again, I’m open to consulting work and taking calls if your business is looking to enter the space or refine your strategy. Mostly, I’m proud and relieved this has finally been announced. It’s been over five years since I started working on this, and I spent a significant portion of my life on it, as did an army of other designers and engineers. I hope the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and Vision Pro blows your mind.

“You follow crypto bros and you like their posts, say gm, and one night they’ve had a few drinks and they say ‘ALL IN!’. Then they tell their alpha chat, ‘You ape these, darling,’ and that’s all you need. Get it? LFG!” - Wandy Larho

“You meet rich people and you hang around with them, and one night they’ve had a few drinks and they say ‘I’ll buy it!’ Then they tell their friends, ‘You must have this person’s work, darling,’ and that’s all you need. That’s all it takes. Get it?” -Andy Warhol

🧵An explanation of what happened with the Cobie tweet, in simple terms so everyone can understand. What are hash predictions, and why did this one go wrong? How did a single tweet cause $50m+ in liquidations? What exactly happened? (1/9)

🧵 On-chain data reveals the covert operations of a Binance listings insider. Over the course of several months, this anonymous individual front-ran the infamous Binance listing pumps of multiple altcoins, booking a 7-figure profit. And he left a trail for us to follow... (1/9)

@AndrewHodgson3D One of the few movies I have re-watched many times over.

watched Dune again yesterday. Definitely my most proud film I have worked on. Here are my four favourite models I made for the film

Joan didion: A single person is missing for you, and the whole world is empty