Ace Ender

Assets are overvalued due to artificially suppressed interest rates over the last 20 years, which has created bubbles in real estate and stocks. Bonds provide negative real return. Cash loses purchasing power every year. The only rational option for long term value storage for non traders is hard assets or undervalued companies if you can find them in an environment of overvaluations, which even Warren Buffet can’t do. Precious metals were the logical choice for this environment in the past, but that was before Bitcoin arrived on the scene and solved for all of Gold’s shortcomings: difficult verification, difficult transport, difficult storage, and gradual debasement. Until there is a structural reset and all financial assets are repriced, the only rational place for the average investor to store their long term wealth is Bitcoin. Diversification is normally a great strategy, but that assumes a functioning financial system that operates according to free market principles. Unfortunately, we live in a centrally controlled financial system where the Fed has distorted all prices across all assets within the system by manipulating the price of the money the underlies the entire system. To protect your wealth, you have to step outside of the system and ditch antiquated stores of value like Gold. Once you realize this, you realize Bitcoin is the hurdle rate, and you become a Bitcoin maxi.

I believe they’d have to buy back on the open market the other prefs until shares outstanding are less than 25% of the original issuance, at which point they could do cleanup redemptions. Luckily, they seem to be focused on STRC now, where they have much more leeway to redeem. I’d imagine the long term plan is to issue prefs until the spread between Bitcoin’s CAGR and the cost of capital closes, and then start to gradually retire the prefs by selling Bitcoin in a non disruptive fashion. This is at least a decade long process, probably more, and by that time most of BTC CAGR will have accrued to the equity holders.

@orangeyield I believe STRC is redeemable by the company but the others are not generally redeemable except in limited circumstances. Let me know if you see it differently.

Just took out an unsecured loan to buy bitcoin. The rate was a bit high at 12%, and annual admin fees will cost an additional 3-12%. Benefit is the loan is non-callable and interest only. The catch is I can never actually repay the loan. Seems like a great investment, right?

@_Adrian @HermesLux Yeah, trust the religious, authoritarian regime which sponsors terrorism across the region and kills its own citizens en masse just to stay in power.

@HermesLux Yea no. Trump is a known liar, this is a matter of public record spanning 4 decades. He was a known liar when I was growing up in NYC and he was one of the cities best known celebrities, and he's a liar now. I tried. Can't trust the man. Time to call a spade a spade.

That didn't take long...

@morpheus7447x @NitherDither @stackhodler Yeah, that’s sage advice to not invest in your the future. If you’re 60 with not kids, then Bitcoin probably isn’t a good idea. But if you are more than 10 years away from retirement or want to leave something for your progeny, then Bitcoin is a great idea.

@orangeyield @NitherDither @stackhodler In the long term we are all dead.

"How do you denominate your wealth?" It used to be BTC. But now it's moments like this. Planting some rosemary on a bright spring afternoon with my son. "Daddy!?" I'm no longer interested in tying my identify to any particular asset, or being on a "team" I simply take whatever investment decisions maximize peaceful moments like this. I used to identify as a "Bitcoiner" but truthfully that lead to frustration in bear markets, and distraction in bull markets. I still love Bitcoin as an asset, but it has a tendency to suck attention and energy from people unlike most other assets. Probably because it promises economic freedom and abundance The thing we all desire But how much of our lives do we miss by constantly focusing on something outside of our control? Shifting my investing focus from Bitcoin to my family made a huge difference for me. I was no longer afraid to sell some BTC I didn't allow ideology to blind me from clear signals that BTC was losing momentum in 2025. And because my priority was to maximize quality moments (with peace of mind), I was able to sell with confidence for the first time since 2017 I don't have a fear of not having the same number of coins I used to have Because I'm no longer denominating my wealth in BTC I'm denominating it in moments like this The stuff that really matters in the end. As long as I'm fully enjoying these moments, I feel like I'm winning as an investor. I spent years bull-posting BTC so I understand that this change of thinking will upset many of you I diamond-handed the last bear market, so I get where you're coming from. But I also know it will resonate with those of you who feel like Bitcoin has taken a lot from you without necessarily giving you the true life returns you actually wanted. All I can say is... Once you shift your focus from a single asset to the thing you ACTUALLY want... The universe will suddenly begin to reveal opportunities to you that you would have never seen before. Suddenly, both up and down markets present opportunities. And the energy you were devoting to one thing outside of your control can be re-allocated to things that are in your control. The funny thing is... If you do this well, you will probably end up with more BTC in the end anyway.

@morpheus7447x @NitherDither @stackhodler I said long term.

@NitherDither @orangeyield @stackhodler 🎯💯... At least for now BTC is still primarily a high Beta risk on asset, not a risk off refuge from the current financial system.

@NitherDither @morpheus7447x @stackhodler I said long term.

@orangeyield @morpheus7447x @stackhodler This is an odd stance to take, given Bitcoin failed precisely when the system started getting stressed. And gold started performing exactly when systemic stress went up. Bitcoin is for the good times. Not for the hard times. It is known.

@ColeMacro Great work, and you are just getting started!

WE PUT IT AT $100, & WE HOLD THE LINE. $SATA

@River @RetireonDividen More services, like a line of credit and joint accounts.

@RetireonDividen Looks like plenty of people have made a case for us in the comments. Greatful to have such supportive clients! Our question to you is: what are you looking for?

Sell me Why use River over CoinBase or Robinhood to buy Bitcoin?

@NitherDither @morpheus7447x @stackhodler Only time will tell, but it’s hard to find fairly priced assets.

@orangeyield @morpheus7447x @stackhodler As folks have found out over the last two years, Bitcoin's various performance claims are falling by the wayside. I'm pretty sure that DCA claim will go the same way.

Why does Bitcoin get more enduring criticism than other disruptive technologies such as the Internet? Simple: Bitcoin is not only a technology, it is an asset. There was no financial penalty for being late to the Internet. You just used clunkier, slower tech for longer. But if you're late to Bitcoin, you don't only have mild inconvenience you have to reconcile financial cost too. We saw the same pattern with investors who missed the tech boom and in particular early Amazon doubters The tweet below is a textbook real-time illustration of this at play, showing three psychological principles at play at once 1. Cognitive Dissonance 2. Sour Grapes Effect (a dissonance-reduction tactic) 3. Omission Regret 1. Cognitive Dissonance When two cognitions conflict such as “I am a smart” and “I passed on an opportunity that turned out to be enormously successful”, psychological discomfort arises. To reduce it, people don’t change their original decision or admit error. Instead, they seek/emphasize information that justifies the original choice. (Leon Festinger, 1957) 2. Sour grapes effect (Sjåstad et al, 2020) Principle: People disparage goals they failed to attain (“the grapes are sour anyway”) to eliminate the pain of missing out In this context: “I didn’t buy Bitcoin, therefore it must be worthless/wasteful/destined to fail 3. Omission Regret Regret from not acting (omission) is often felt more intensely than regret from a bad action. People cope by rewriting the narrative: the missed asset “was never that good.” (Ritov & Baron, 1995) Gizmodo’s “How Much Should I Regret Not Buying Bitcoin?” (2018) even frames it exactly this way for non-investors Keen's admission of the missed £10 BTC price is immediately followed by a list of long-standing objections that conveniently justify the non-decision. Bitcoiners will call it “saltiness,” but the underlying psychology at play is standard, peer-reviewed behavioral science. Keen may defend himself by trying to argue "the tech really is genuinely bad". But in stating that "Bitcoin uses a lot of energy per transaction" (a piece of misinformation that anyone who has spent 1 hour researching Bitcoin mining will know is untrue: Bitcoin energy use does not come from its transactions) he has lost the right to claim objectively that his criticisms come out of understanding. Rather, he has illustrated a huge asymmetry in that he has spent countless hours making videos against Bitcoin, but almost no time understanding the technology. In his tweet thread, you can also see a classic red-flag that rather than engage on an issue, he will level one (widely debunked) claim after another. Brandolini's law in action: it takes longer to debunk BS than to create it. However, these are human frailties that can be overcome with higher self-awareness and lower ego. If the need to "be right" is reduced, then a person can become intellectually curious and re-appraise an asset. Indeed the ability to change one's mind is a defining aspect of real intelligence. Michael Saylor illustrated the possibility of this path.

Justice for the Gays of Hormuz

Assets are overvalued due to artificially suppressed interest rates over the last 20 years, which has created bubbles in real estate and stocks. Bonds provide negative real return. Cash loses purchasing power every year. The only rational option for long term value storage for non traders is hard assets or undervalued companies if you can find them in an environment of overvaluations, which even Warren Buffet can’t do. Precious metals were the logical choice for this environment in the past, but that was before Bitcoin arrived on the scene and solved for all of Gold’s shortcomings: difficult verification, difficult transport, difficult storage, and gradual debasement. Until there is a structural reset and all financial assets are repriced, the only rational place for the average investor to store their long term wealth is Bitcoin. Diversification is normally a great strategy, but that assumes a functioning financial system that operates according to free market principles. Unfortunately, we live in a centrally controlled financial system where the Fed has distorted all prices across all assets within the system by manipulating the price of the money the underlies the entire system. To protect your wealth, you have to step outside of the system and ditch antiquated stores of value like Gold. Once you realize this, you realize Bitcoin is the hurdle rate, and you become a Bitcoin maxi.

@stackhodler @orangeyield 🎯🎯🎯💯💯💯. The 100% all in all the time immediately add every last dollar to BTC regardless of price or time is a dangerous mentality.

@AdamBLiv Haha, I wouldn’t sell a single sat, but damn, would that be a test of conviction.

The Power Law support line that has never been breached is now at $55k. We might have to wick down to that level to flush out the last remaining crybabies. I'd be fine with it. Would be glad to be assigned on my $95 MSTR puts while my covered calls on ASST continue to print. The daily Bitcoin buy continues and my option premiums help me accumulate more during these drawdowns. Pretty nutty that all data supports Bitcoin's price converging to Power Law and a reversion to there today would mean $155k Bitcoin... and it's $200k by EOY. Prime accumulation time. FOCUS. STACK. WIN.

I think Strive’s higher current amplification and smaller size outweighs the disadvantage from higher cost of capital. There are so many unpredictable variables that my BTCTC allocation is about 1/3 each MSTR, MTPLF, and ASST. I hold a small SWC position as well, but SWC is far from being a guaranteed long run player. The other 3 have reached escape velocity. Having enough BTC to issue 1 billion in prefs is the threshold for institutions to buy.

@orangeyield If amplification was the only meaningful variable, then Strive would be > MSTR... However, cost of debt favours MSTR, and in combination with other factors, MSTR equity is superior to Strive equity, imho.

Metaplanet might actually underperform MSTR going forward, as they can’t maintain as high of an amplification ratio due to the requirement to pay dividends from profits. In order to run their derivatives income strategy, they rely on borrowed capital using their BTC as collateral. This means fewer Bitcoin against which to issue prefs. Metaplanet has a lower cost of capital and can better harvest mNAV premium since their Bitcoin holdings are considerably smaller than MSTR, but these advantages are outweighed by their inability to match the higher amplification ratio achieved by MSTR.

Metaplanet might actually underperform MSTR going forward, as they can’t maintain as high of an amplification ratio due to the requirement to pay dividends from profits. In order to run their derivatives income strategy, they rely on borrowed capital using their BTC as collateral. This means fewer Bitcoin against which to issue prefs. Metaplanet has a lower cost of capital and can better harvest mNAV premium since their Bitcoin holdings are considerably smaller than MSTR, but these advantages are outweighed by their inability to match the higher amplification ratio achieved by MSTR.

Metaplanet's run up in May of last year was CRAZY when you plot it next to MSTR. Even after that much of a drawdown, Metaplanet has considerably outperformed MSTR since January 2025. Which company do you think outperforms from here on the way back to $126k Bitcoin? 🤔

I’ve yet to see anyone consistently beat the returns of dollar cost averaging into BTC. It’s no different than people dollar cost averaging into the S&P beating 99% of traders and money managers over 10 years. For the next 10 years, one can beat the S&P with Bitcoin while it scales.