Stef Dimitrova

@JuneGoh_Sparta Here is the analysis ⬇️Show more

Normally a diesel, mogas or jet cargo takes only 14 days to sail from Singapore to Botany Bay, 15 days if from Ulsan, South Korea. Now if Singapore refineries are not running enough crude and South Korea is imposing mandatory product export caps, Australia needs to find supply elsewhere as the country is 90% reliant on imports with only 2 refineries online domestically. USGC is generally long products. So the supply from USGC is kind of a no-brainer in the current climate. But the time taken for the voyage from Houston to Botany Bay is 32 days. So existing stock inventories need to hold till resupply comes. ARA on the other hand is typically long mogas. So it would be interesting to watch the gasoline arb between Houston vs Rotterdam into Botany Bay going forward if Asia just cannot supply Australia. However it takes 42 days for Rotterdam cargoes to travel to Botany Bay via the Cape. Essentially more risk on longer haul voyages and higher freight costs for the new supply points to keep Australia wet. See attached freight chart from @SpartaCommo for the Houston --> Botany Bay route. #oott

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