Sparta

HIdden pressures build, but markets go into risk-off mode 1⃣A US-Iran MOU seems close at hand and markets are celebrating, expecting the current trickle of vessel movements to increase exponentially and flooding the prompt market and also Trump demonstrating his unwillingness to escalate 2⃣The underlying supply shortfall of 10-11 mbd of crude oil does not go away immediately and will see markets still drawing inventories until Middle Eastern crude production is back online, which is months away 3⃣Volatility will be in the prompt physical markets as market players digest the incremental oil coming into the system whilst the August delivery month has already been well supplied by alternatives 4⃣Russian oil infrastructure continues to get hit, including Sheskharis oil terminal and major refineries 5⃣TI/Brent has narrowed and still has room to go, with US crude draws and continued appetite for WTI in the East for diversification #oott Link to read the full Crude Deep Dive commentary below.

Quoted in Al Jazeera today: “Fundamentally, there is no change to the underlying picture, where 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil continue to be shut-in for every day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta in Singapore, told Al Jazeera. “However, markets are expecting a gush of 100 million barrels of crude oil from the stranded ships to flow out once the deal is in place.” Goh said markets are likely to remain on edge for some time after any deal is finalised. “Sparta estimates still about three to six months required to get everything back to status quo, including time to bring production and refineries back online,” Goh said. aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5… #oott

US inventories are 11,900 mbbl below seasonal norms. The USGC is the world's marginal supplier this summer, and every product market is showing it. Key signals from our May Americas Chart Pack: > RBOB/HO spread narrowing: Transatlantic arb negative for June ARA blenders. HOU set to recapture LATAM market share in July. > WTI competitive into Japan and Korea for the medium cracking tranche. China excluded by 10% import tariffs. > Diesel approaching minimum workable levels. USGC arbs open across NWE, MED, WAF, and LATAM. HOGO strengthening as RVO gains hold. > Refined product export ban remains the defining tail risk. Diesel takes the biggest hit if restrictions come through. Full chart pack: hubs.li/Q04hDTXc0 #oott #rbob #diesel #refining #arbitrage #oilmarkets

Watch the full episode now: spartacommodities.com/market-outlook…

19.5 million barrels drawn in a week. The largest US stock draw in history. And oil barely moved. @JuneGoh_Sparta and Abhishek Kumar join Felipe Elink Schuurman for an episode with a special focus on India and Asia. Inside this episode: > Russia's OFAC waiver extension adds zero new barrels. June explains what traders missed. > India's continued appetite for Russian crude. Modi is asking citizens to cut consumption. What comes next? > VGO market heats up. Feedstocks demand firm with secondary unit margins strong. Find and watch the full episode in the comments below 👇 #oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil #oiltrading #commoditytrading

Singapore MR prompt tonnage has dropped from 33 open vessels on 5 May to just 8 today; the sharpest tightening since December. Vessel supply at 8 against a 90-day average of 23, incremental demand at +2. Ecomar Gironde placed on subs Singapore to Cont at $3.15m, Eternal Sunshine on subs Muara to Australia at 325 WS ULSD, Gateway fixed Rayong to Japan on naphtha. Long-haul westbound, Australia distillate, Japan naphtha, and regional Indonesian flows all absorbing tonnage simultaneously. FSD model points WS 328 to WS 334; potentially conservative outlook. Owners: push above last done levels.

Fuel Oil Market Flash: Potential downside on 0.5 EW, VGO very strong - Sing 0.5 Jun crack hit our target of $19/bbl before retreating to the mid-16s while physical diff continues to be firm around +45/MT. Dynamics have continued to shift since our last commentary. - With firmer Sing premiums and softer freight, Rott-Sing 0.5 arb now looks close to being open for a - Jun’2D Suezmax loader, and potentially already open for an earlier loader. If this continues, we expect incremental arb volume from the West which should hit the East from the second half of July onwards. - Our usual 0.5 EW vs physical freight & costs chart shows how the pendulum has now swung the other way with Jun EW some $25/MT above our estimated physical freight & costs for the Rott-Sing route. While the two don’t necessarily have to match, the physical level has historically been the value that EW mean reverted to. - At the same time, our estimated forward blend margins for 0.5 in Singapore have flipped back to very positive territory. Dangote LSSR last done at +30s vs 0.5 Barge would still be very in the money into Singapore blending at the current premiums. - On the other hand, with front Hi5 around $100/MT, Asian mid-sulphur is now looks firmly better into 0.5 blending again. - Feedstocks continue to be very firm with VGO heard delivered East Med at ICE + $46/bbl and the ICE + mid-$50s into the USG – we were in the mid-20s/bbl across the board just a short while ago. Secondary unit margins are doing the heavy lifting here. Meanwhile MED LSSR streams hover around ICE + $18/bbl FOB – resid conversion incentive continues to look very strong in the West. In Asia, resid conversion premium relative to blending for heavy sweet crudes has also ticked up again. - Overall, our thesis for Jun Sing 0.5 played out and while we are not bearish (hard to be with the Hormuz still closed), there is probably room for additional downside on 0.5 EW from here. By Hoa Nguyen, Commodity Owner. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #fueloil

This is what working in Sparta looks like. From curves, to arbs, to freight, to signals, all connected in one view. One place where trading decisions take shape. Watch the 90-second walkthrough. #commoditytrading #oiltrading #energyindustry #oott

Cross Barrel Market Flash: Russian oil waiver is an extension of sales, not incremental barrels - The latest OFAC sanction waiver for Russian oil (General Licence 134c) is applicable for crude and oil products loaded as of 17 April 2026 for sale till 17 June 2026 - However the previous OFAC sanction waiver (General Licence 134b) was also applicable for cargoes loaded as of 17 April 2026 for sale till 17 May 2026 - This means there is no incremental Russian barrels for this latest set of waiver. Our bullish view on FOB crude diffs remains unchanged By @JuneGoh_Sparta, Senior Oil Market Analyst. #oott

For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app

Distillate Market Flash: HOGO extends gains as US diesel stocks remain perilously thin; but RVO and freight offer notes of caution - The June HOGO has widened by close to 3 cpg since the start of last week, extending a run that continues to draw support from a US distillate market operating with uncomfortably thin buffers. - US diesel stocks, despite a slight build in last week's statistics, remain at perilously low levels; a single week's marginal recovery doing little to alter a structural picture that has been tightening for some time. - The June USGC diesel differential has meanwhile narrowed by over 1 cpg over the last 7 days, a move that in part reflects this same underlying tightness in the prompt US market. - USGC MR diesel arbs remain workable in the prompt across multiple destinations; Europe, East Coast and West Coast South America alike, suggesting that export flows are unlikely to ease in the near term and that the outbound pressure on US inventories will persist. - Taken together, these dynamics point to continuing strength in the HOGO ahead. However, two caveats deserve attention: - (i) The continuing escalation in RVO levels adds a layer of complexity to the distillate demand and blending picture that could temper the pace of the move. - (ii) TC-14 freight rates continue to decline, but if this turns around would hurt export arb economics, requiring less strength in the HOGO to close these arbs. - The directional case for the HOGO remains intact, but both the RVO trajectory and the freight picture bear close watching as the swap pushes higher. By James Noel-Beswick, Head of Commodities. #oott #distillate

Got bitumen? Heavier crudes good for bitumen production such as those from Iraq have faced production shut-ins due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Refiners face a tough choice making bitumen (if they can even meet the quality) or HSFO. Thanks @ChannelNewsAsia for the feature. #oott youtu.be/Otqr7nh01IE?si…

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD20 Suezmax is the highest-conviction bullish trade despite rates still grinding lower: Angolan mediums are $5–11/bbl undervalued into NWE on a delivered basis, the list has tightened sharply to 8 ships (down 11 w/w, now balanced against its average), and WAF VLCCs at 7 versus 9 mean charterers cannot easily switch up in class. The rate has not caught up to the fundamental turn — that is the entry opportunity.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD25 Aframax is turning: WTI Midland is deeply competitive into NWE on a delivered basis and improving, freight RBI undervaluation is deepening at $8.63/mt, and the wide-open physical arb should absorb the 17 open Aframaxes in the USGC over coming days. The 17-ship list versus a 13-ship average keeps the move fragile — wait for the list to drop below 13 before committing in size.

Watch the full podcast here → spartacommodities.com/market-outlook…

US diesel stocks are drawing fast. In two or three weeks, it becomes a problem. Export ban chatter is building among clients. A gasoline tax pause of 18 cents doesn't move the needle when retail is up $1.50 to $2 from last year. @NGCanalyst on Trade with Conviction. Find full podcast in the comments below 👇 #oott #oilmarkets #commoditytrading

@JuneGoh_Sparta Watch the full video here: youtu.be/Otqr7nh01IE?si…

Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta, @JuneGoh_Sparta, spoke to CNA this week on how the crisis is squeezing bitumen supply and forcing refiners into difficult trade-offs. Key points: > Bitumen requires heavy crude to meet spec: Iraqi grade is a key feedstock, and those flows are now shut off. > Refineries are running at lower intake overall, and face a hard choice: process for bitumen or fuel oil. > Some are already moving beyond traditional bitumen: plastic waste-derived alternatives have seen demand more than triple locally and regionally. The key question now is whether these alternatives can scale fast enough to fill the gap. Find the full video in comments 👇 #oilmarkets #crudeoil #commoditytrading #energyindustry

Watch the full video here → spartacommodities.com/market-outlook…

US jet yields have maxed out. The regrade that pushed them there has collapsed. Across the US Gulf, Singapore and Europe, the jet regrade is now in low single digits. Refiners are about to cut yields heading into peak summer demand. James Noel-Beswick & the team on Trade with Conviction. Find the full episode in the comments 👇 #oilmarkets #oiltrading #energyindustry #oott