Sparta

𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 – 20𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 – 1030 𝐂𝐄𝐓 – 𝐒𝐏𝐑 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐠𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐞 Access our latest Cross-Barrel Analyst Brief: spartacommodities.com/insights/signa… By @NGCanalyst, Head of Research. #oott

Israel hit South Pars. Iran struck Ras Laffan. A 60-day Jones Act waiver landed yesterday. Record exports from Yanbu but first hints of the port in danger. The numbers tell the story: > WTI-Brent spread blew out to -$20 prompt (and rebounded today). TI is now the cheapest major sweet crude on the planet as export control fears grow. > Deferred product cracks still don't price in the severity of the situation. > Airlines have already started cancelling routes > MOPJ April/May time spread: +$100/mt > The Jones Act waiver won't calm prices in the US. No off-ramp is visible. Every escalation step has been bigger than the last. The deferred cracks still look too low for what this market is pricing. That's one trade worth watching. Watch to the full episode: spartacommodities.com/insights/podca… Sign up for a free 30-day trial for Sparta Knowledge: signup.sparta.app #oott #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #energyindustry

Distillate Market Flash: HOGO declines as rumors of product bans arise - HOGO APR swaps have fallen 18.5% on the day to 25.2 cpg, driven by circulating rumors of a potential distillate product export ban. - Despite the sharp decline, this move has not directly resulted in an opening of arbitrage opportunities for distillate. As TC14 arbs remain closed by -$16.60/mt for Apr loaders. Though any such opening would likely be temporary given the uncertainty surrounding the potential ban. - However, the US officials have actively distanced themselves from the idea of a product ban, given the damage caused to the domestic refining industry and allies. Making these potential market impacts, highly theorical. By Nikolas Plonski, Oil Market Analyst. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #distillates

WCI MR prompt supply has dropped from 41 ships to just 8 in a week against a 90-day average of 20. Ships are ballasting away and genuine WCI CPP cargo demand is absorbing what remains. The FSD model has responded: TC12 spot at WS 215 with the 7-day ahead forecast pointing to WS 229. Almost all arbs are open with Singapore diesel widening to +$16.30/bbl in May.

It's quite clear that traders are not pricing just a 60-day Jones Act waiver here. Both HOGO and TA Arb have lost ~10cpg in the last 24 hours. The impact from increased P3 -> P1 or P5 flows would be much smaller than that. A product exports ban out of the US would be catastrophic for: - US refiners - US upstream producers - European consumers - Asian consumers It would benefit the US consumer, but that can be done in a far less painful fashion through spec waivers and holidays on federal and state-level taxes if that's really the end goal. #oott

Beautiful charts: TD25 strong inverse correlation with WTI/Brent spread. Watch out for that potential export ban though... p/s: For the non-trading folks, TD25 = freight cost for USGC to ARA on Aframax. WTI generally loaded on these vessels into Europe. #oott

𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 – 19𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 – 1200 𝐂𝐄𝐓 – 𝐔𝐒 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 Access our latest Cross-Barrel Signal Brief: spartacommodities.com/insights/signa… By @NGCanalyst, Head of Research. #oott

TD25 WTI crude RBI has hit -$15.90/bbl: the deepest undervalued reading to date. Neil Crosby noted this morning that WTI is "now by far and away the best priced light sweet crude in the world, to an extreme degree" and that related DPP rates should be supported. TD25 was undervalued and the forward paper curve repriced aggressively higher yesterday to better reflect demand. Two USGC to UKC fixtures yesterday at WS 365 and WS 340 confirm the rate recovery is already underway. Watch for US export curb headline risk. #oott

Trump's 60-day Jones Act waiver covers all products and is wider than anticipated. The immediate direct freight impact is modest, but the main story is distillates into PADD-1 and PADD-5 where premiums were already elevated. Non-US flagged tonnage in the USGC can now pivot north, and the 60-day duration makes repositioning commercially attractive. Net outlook: bullish TC14. TC14 already nudged from WS 397.5 yesterday to WS 405 today. Watch for US export curb headline risk. #oott

SEA MR prompt vessel supply has more than halved in a week from 38 open ships to 17 vs a 90-day average of 23. Vessels are ballasting toward the USGC as owners prioritize higher, short-haul round-trip earnings as the conflict timeline lengthens. The near-term outlook has shifted from bearish to neutral for the first time since 3 March. #oott

Crude Market Flash: USGC crude gets very cheap - Jun TI/BRT has widened to nearly -$10/bbl. Contributing factors include imminent strike action at Whiting beginning the morning of 3/19/26, alongside higher freight (TD25). This has helped see WTI move to extreme competitiveness across all global outlets for May/June. - Despite public denial from Secretary Bessent, market chatter persists around the possibility of the US Treasury selling crude oil futures as a mechanism to suppress pricing. - Adding to broader speculation around US policy intervention, the possibility of US oil export bans is getting more attention. The impact on crude markets would be immediate as inland inventory levels would build rapidly in the absence of export outlets (even just for products). - EIA stats for the week of 3/13/26 showing US commercial stocks rising by 6.2 mn bbl and Cushing, OK stock levels rising by 0.9 mn bbl By Nikolas Plonski, Oil Market Analyst. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #crude

Naphtha Market Flash: Record April MOPJ crack signals tightening Asian market - The MOPJ crack is marking the highest historical seasonal value ever for the April contract, exceeding $5/bbl at the moment after a strong upward trend over the last ten days, pricing in the current strong imbalance in the Asian market for petrochemical feedstock demand. - South Pars condensate underpins a significant share of Asian supply. Today's reported attack on the field adds a geopolitical risk premium to differentials that are already at multi-year highs. - The naphtha market continues to show the latent need to increase the level of flows from West to East, with record levels in E/W and Asian cash diffs offsetting the rise in freight rates, which have doubled since the beginning of the Iran war from MED and USGC to Asian destinations. - NWE premiums are already marking their highest value since May 2025. The unusual arbitrage from NWE to Asia is currently open on paper both in LR2 and LR2. - The most profitable alternatives for the US and European markets currently are to load large vessels and send them to Asia according to our by origin calculator, with margins clearly exceeding the option of smaller cargoes in local markets. By Jorge Molinero, Commodity Owner. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #naphtha

Cross-Barrel Market Flash: Jones Act 60-Day Waiver Confirmed - President Trump has signed a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act. This is wider in both scope (all products, not just crude) and duration (60 days vs. the 30 days initially discussed) than parts of the market had been anticipating. - Freight economics — less dramatic than feared, but in a market of such strong backwardation, the ability to bypass BORCO blending can save days and a few cpg on delivered values into both PADD-1 and PADD-5. - The expected impact on actual freight rates, however, will likely be minimal. For example, Houston–New York: ~$1.9M vs. Jones Act ~$1.95–$1.985M (on $90k/day TCE basis). - The impact into PADD-5 should be bigger. Houston–Los Angeles: ~$4.0M vs. Jones Act ~$4.83M on the same TCE — a wider spread, though JA rates on this run have been firm near $90k/day for 3–4 months, reflecting structural tightness. - In terms of impacts on a product basis, distillates should see the largest impact. PADD-1 and PADD-5 distillate premiums were already elevated, making these flows economically viable and helping boost volumes on these routes. - Gasoline: RBOB USGC–NYH arb is ~12 cpg out of the money on JA vessel economics. The waiver alone likely won't unlock gasoline flows unless CBOB/RBOB spreads widen. Alkylate flows from P3 to P5 might be a more viable first mover given octane tightness in P5. - Overall, plenty of non-US flagged tonnage in the USGC, currently deployed on LatAm routes, could pivot to PADD-1 or PADD-5 if the economics are right. More vessels are already ballasting toward the Gulf. The 60-day duration makes repositioning more attractive. - As such, this should be bullish TC14, whilst mildly bearish HOGO. The impact on gasoline (TA Arb), jet, or crude should all be quite minor. - Thinking a little further out, this can be seen as a first, soft attempt to manage US domestic prices. As and when this fails to bring down pump prices and the political cost of higher oil prices rises, the market is likely to become more and more wary of harder measures, including potential export bans on products. By Sparta Research Team. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #oil

The South and East Africa pull continues to underpin NWE MR demand with three UKC to South Africa fixtures done in the past week at $3.3m to $3.5m lumpsum. The standout deal is Largo Desert on subs loading Terneuzen for Japan at $5.45m lumpsum — Jorge Molinero noted today that April MOPJ cracks are at historical highs and the NWE to Asia naphtha arb is open on paper. With supply 5 below average and arb margins generally positive owners are in a stronger position than recent spot weakness implies. #oott

NWE MR supply has tightened to 12 ships against a 90-day average of 17, and the model has shifted from mildly bearish earlier this week to neutral today. Owners are reluctant to fix East as the NWE to EoS trade is viewed as a one-way with limited backhaul options given the Hormuz crisis. The focus has shifted to Atlantic and Med round trips — the near-term bottom in TC2 rates looks increasingly to be in.

Fuel Oil Market Flash: Is market assuming too quick a return to normalcy for 0.5? - Sing 0.5 physical assessed at just below +$140 while Apr/May firmed w-o-w to $95. On the high sulphur end, 380 Apr/May hasn’t changed much since last week while physical stays just a little below +$70. - Sing 0.5 cracks further down the curve feel a bit too complacent here, especially relative to the signals from spreads with Jun and Jul at $13/bbl and $12/bbl respectively. These levels are very typical seasonally speaking and it appears that somehow market is assuming a relatively quick return to normalcy here that doesn’t feel justified. We also think there’s upside for Hi5 further down the curve as well.  A roll-up trade on cracks is perhaps worth considering here. - Fujairah barging operations continue to be disrupted with the drone attacks on the terminals – MFO delivered diffs are still extremely firm at around Mops + 300. At these levels, anyone with molecules to supply will do so and rolling it over will be extremely painful with this backwardation. At the same time, all low sulphur swing barrels continue to firmly point to the East. - On the other hand, even with very minimal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, there should still be residual demand from the hundreds of boats trapped within the Gulf that still need fuel to power themselves. This will require barging from the AG ports (non-Fujairah) where local supplies are running dry and no ex-AG resupplies can come through. There’s always the possibility of ships running out of fuel and getting stranded that will turn this into an even bigger mess. Even a naval escort may not do anything when the ships themselves can’t move. - Trump eased Russian sanctions late last week which now opens up more opportunities for Russian high sulphur volume to downgrade more aggressively into the bunker pool in Singapore especially at these exceptional diffs. We should be seeing at least some impact on ex-wharf diffs in the short run. - Nevertheless, there is intense competition for these barrels from the Chinese and Indian refiners as usual and now that sanction relief is in place, perhaps Korean and Japanese refiners as well. Bunker diffs will need to keep up with what the refiners are willing to pay. We don’t expect any competition from European refiners for these in the medium term. By Hoa Nguyen, Commodity Owner. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #fueloil

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Neil Crosby (Sparta) flagged today that ARA and Houston barrels are now cheaper into Australia than Singapore-origin supply as the Hormuz crisis continues. Australia has released emergency fuel reserves and the scramble for Atlantic Basin resupply is accelerating. Charterers are reaching further forward into the USGC MR tonnage list, a bullish signal. Rates have more room for upside.

USGC MR supply has lengthened to 16 ships against a 12-vessel average, but the market outlook is more nuanced than the headline count suggests. Vessels discharging Aus & NZ are ballasting toward the USGC despite high bunker costs, and a higher than usual proportion of fixtures are heading to long haul destinations. The USGC remains the cheapest source of CPP supply globally and owners should remain bullish.

𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 - 18𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 - 1200𝐂𝐄𝐓 – 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 Access our latest Cross-Barrel Signal Brief: spartacommodities.com/insights/signa… By @NGCanalyst , Head of Research. #oott