Prometheus Labs
2.8K posts

Prometheus Labs
@wavetel
Eighty percent of success is showing up. ODU grad - Links & RTs aren't endorsements. Opinions are my own!
World Golf Village, FL Se unió Temmuz 2016
1.6K Siguiendo259 Seguidores

The debate around $ONDS is still mostly centered on dilution.
Let me help you out cause the math is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Caveat, I am assuming $1B revs in 2027, w/ consensus lower. Either way # are still 🥜
~$4B market cap
Less ~$1.4B cash
= ~$2.6B enterprise value for the operating business.
Against a potential $1B 2027 revenue base, that is roughly 2.6x forward EV/S.
But revenue is only half the story as many fail to understand. The operating leverage already building i the model coupled with higher margin mix of revs (dis someone say ARR?) is to be the real “it” factor..
At scale, even a 15% EBITDA margin on $1B of revenue would produce ~$150M of EBITDA. A 20% margin gets you to ~$200M.
So the market is effectively valuing the business at roughly 13–17x potential 2027 EBITDA, depending on where margins land.
And that is before assigning a premium for the strategic nature of the assets, the defense and autonomy tailwinds, the software mix being added, or the possibility that 2027 revenue ultimately exceeds $1B
If we wanted we can walk it out with a terminal year into 2032 and discount back and gets even more 🥜
The market is mispricing $ONDS and by the looks at sentiment, it is successfully shaking out the misinformed.
Know what you own. No crying in true casino.
LooongAF
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@amitisinvesting The other problem is there are only 3 players in the memory market. It’s been like this since 2017 and it’s too late for new players to come in.
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Long post, but some thoughts on what happened in the market today…
Today was a particularly weird storm of price action because the logic going into the open was as follows:
- $MU crushed, saved the AI trade
- AI stocks should go higher due to MU proving its not cyclical, this should help the broader market get a lift
Instead, what we got right before the open…
- $AAPL announces massive price hikes and effectively uses MU earnings to be like, “See! It’s not us, but if memory gets 86% margins, then we have to raise prices!”
- This happens right after the hottest PCE in 3 years is reported, even with oil (the biggest proponent of inflation the past few months) still coming down
- Microsoft then joins the party and raises prices across all XBOX products, once again citing memory costs
Market then proceeds to take a nasty dip in every sector…except Memory.
I think what is happening here will be studied for a long time. The hyperscalers, the companies that are RESPONSIBLE for $MU and $SNDK being multibaggers, are getting destroyed because…well they can’t buy back stock, they can’t get FCF positive, and they don’t have memory’s pricing power.
In fact, this is what Melius Research came out today and said:
“Why bother owning a hyperscaler who can't buy back stock any time soon? Micron can start buying over $25B/quarter in stock during CY27. Memory will go down as THE BOTTLENECK of ALL BOTTLENECKS for this AI era. MU said that current conditions last after calendar 2027, basically guaranteeing buybacks of epic proportions, especially next calendar year.”
We are at the point where the sell-side is saying that owning the best companies in the world makes no sense when you can own the bottleneck of all bottlenecks.
Here’s the thing: I don’t know if Melius is actually wrong.
My gut tells me that 86% gross margins will not last forever, but as long as the hyperscalers are willing to pay, then the structural logic for market participants comes down to a simple question: why own the companies paying the capex over the companies benefiting from it?
The problem is obvious: if memory inflation continues to be intense, it will affect every part of the market. From automotive to datacenters to PCs. $NVDA gets to have a tax because it’s building very IP-heavy products. Will the market allow something like memory, that is not IP-heavy, to force consumers globally to pay significantly more for the products? Also, do the memory makers even care because as long as they control supply, they can control pricing?
I’d imagine the big tech companies either lower capex to stop paying the cost, keep paying the cost, or try to innovate. They likely won’t lower capex and will most likely continue paying the cost, so there probably are some elements of them trying to focus on innovating in this area…but if there won’t be any menaingful cutoff in capex, the memory story continues.
The market fell today because higher inflation means more of a chance for rate hikes. I mean, NVDA went below 200 as MU hit all time highs. NVDA’s suppliers are more valuable than NVDA’s biggest customers. As a result, it’s creating a type of AI-flation that basically led the market to sell off everything else.
Not sure how this plays out, retail continues to buy the dip and today’s red probably gets bought…especially as earnings continue to grow…but we are in a new paradigm for how this market gives a premium to a stock and if you have pricing power over a component that matters to build AI vs being a companies that actually uses AI, you get a premium.
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@bodoxstocks One day it had to blow up with this moron ceo at the head.
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@SeekTheAlpha He will never do…..on the contrary he must be plotting to buy another 3rd rate garbage now that he has all this stocks in hand.
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This isn't great. At times like these the management team has to show up and make open market buys. $ONDS @CeoOndas - something we've been lacking for years.
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@Zac_Markovich You got it….. there are so many fraudsters here singing bullshit that it is nauseating
e.g. @BMSInvests
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$ONDS One thing I personally was afraid of with this stock (Which is ultimately why I sold & stopped trading this).
The planned dilution;
MCAP - Oct 8th 2025; 3.9 Billion - Price $11.80
MCAP - Today - June 24th 2026; 4.1 Billion Price $7.80
(200 Million dollars higher)
Price about 32% lower.
This is almost the exact thing that happened to me during the second Solana run up.
MCAP ran up and past ATHs but price was barely tagging it because the token inflation was so high. By the time the chain did anything about it. It was too little too late.

Zachary Markovich@Zac_Markovich
$ONDS Tagging $7.80 low from market ATL back in March 30th. SPY was at $634 then and its trading 16% higher but ONDS is trading the same level.
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@GoracleGorki It’s FIFA that decided the water breaks, nothing to do with America. FIFA is not one country, you need to read up on how this decision came up and which country proposed it.
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I didn’t say anything about the game. I said they are Americanizing the world‘s game and it’s not an American game. Americans play it well those good guys that play it but it’s not America’s game and they’re trying to Americanize this shit commercial brakes in the middle of games, we created a commercial block really that’s not what football is about and I’m glad to know that it’s going back to the way that it was for the 2028 European championships
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@GoracleGorki Lmao… you just have some pepper in your ass, clean it up and you will appreciate the matches.
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Are you blind? It’s probably the worst one ever ever ever ever ever ever ever. It’s not in world football culture to have hydration breaks in whether that is not 30°C or higher it’s also not in football culture to make them three minutes so that you can actually use it as a marketing block football is a continuous game so it’s the worst World Cup ever
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@BMSInvests What a complete and utter disaster of a company…. Buy companies to show the fake growth… it’s like Walmart selling cheap Chinese goods… Ondas selling garbage from Israel and all other countries..
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@marklevinshow Damn, did Trump threw your phone number into the garbage?
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Here’s an idea: if you want people to stop speculating about the MOU release the MOU. Don’t brief a few anointed ones to control the narrative and expect everyone else to sit silently. That’s not how our country works. It’s going to be signed soon. It takes time for people to digest it all once it is released. Controlling the narrative can only last so long.
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Prometheus Labs retuiteado

> you’ll never start a rocket company
> you’ll never build your own engines
> you’ll never be able to use off-the-shelf parts
> you’ll never survive three launch failures
> you’ll never reach orbit
> you’ll never win NASA’s trust
> you’ll never launch cargo to the ISS
> you’ll never compete with Boeing
> you’ll never compete with Lockheed
> you’ll never make rockets reusable
> you’ll never land a rocket vertically
> you’ll never land one on a drone ship
> you’ll never reuse a booster
> you’ll never fly the same booster 10 times
> you’ll never fly the same booster 20 times
> you’ll never fly the same booster 30 times
> you’ll never recover and reuse the fairing
> you’ll never lower launch costs
> you’ll never launch every month
> you’ll never launch every week
> you’ll never launch multiple times a week
> you’ll never carry astronauts
> you’ll never replace Roscosmos
> you’ll never fly civilians to orbit
> you’ll never manufacture satellites at scale
> you’ll never build the biggest constellation ever
> you’ll never make satellite internet work
> you’ll never make satellite internet fast
> you’ll never make satellite internet affordable
> you’ll never serve rural customers
> you’ll never serve aircraft and ships
> you’ll never build a methane rocket engine
> you’ll never make full-flow staged combustion work
> you’ll never build the most powerful rocket ever
> you’ll never build a rocket bigger than Saturn V
> you’ll never build it out of stainless steel
> you’ll never launch Starship
> you’ll never separate Super Heavy and Starship
> you’ll never relight Raptor in space
> you’ll never bring Super Heavy back
> you’ll never catch a booster with Mechazilla tower arms
> you’ll never launch 85% of mass to orbit worldwide
> you’ll never change the economics of space
> you’ll never force the entire industry to copy you
> you’ll never win
> you’ll never IPO
Congratulations to @elonmusk and the SpaceX team. You did what countless people said was impossible, and you did it time and time again.
Today is your day. You deserve this. May it be a glorious one.

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@mikealfred lol… what do you know about soccer… stick with crypto bullshit.
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@MarioNawfal always interviewing some Jackass who at his age is hallucinating and got tired of pounding sand..
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🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷 Another round of war began between Israel and Iran last night, with everyone wondering what happens to the world next.
Ex-CIA Larry Johnson suggested we're in an escalatory cycle that will run another 10 to 12 days before Israel reaches a breaking point, just like the 12-Day War.
Except this time they are on their own.
If the Bab el-Mandeb closes now too, the global supply chain crisis gets significantly worse, and China won't feel it, because it has Russian oil, Iranian oil, and full strategic reserves.
@newsonof
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷America imports the heavy crude it needs to run its trucks and the strategic reserve is nearly empty. Ex-CIA Larry Johnson says the U.S. didn't plan this war to dominate energy markets. It can't replace Gulf heavy crude, didn't stockpile any before starting the fight, and has now burned through what little cushion it had. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have reportedly decided to stop hosting U.S. military operations on their soil. @newsonof
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@grok if I made a list of the one million most qualified people to be director of National Intelligence for the US government would Federal Housing Finance Agency chair Bill Pulte be on that list?
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