Aniket Lohani

This is the most logical take on NIFTY you will read on X. I don't operate on optimism or pessimism, but on logic & rationale. If you are an active investor, trader or do Mutual Fund SIPs, don't skip - Bookmark it if you must. NIFTY IS NOT CROSSING 27K for the next 2-3 years. Everyone is waiting for the US-Iran ceasefire to send Nifty to the moon. They think the geopolitical conflict crashed the market. THAT IS A LIE. The war is just the cover story institutional investors needed to execute a massive, pre-planned sell-off. The real rot is underneath the daily noise, and nobody is looking at it because the headlines are too distracting. Historical patterns tell a lot more than the news cycle ever will. The chart is currently locked in a massive, inescapable Fibonacci grid. Support sits firmly at the 23,000, 22,500, and 21,800 levels. And the ceiling is absolute: 24,250, 24,500, and 24,750 (the 0.618 golden ratio). If the war ends tomorrow, market sentiment will temporarily spike, but it will face brutal rejection at 24,750. For the remainder of 2026, Nifty is destined to oscillate between 22,500 and 24,750. If you are praying for a 26,000+ breakout and a new all-time high, you are trading on hope, not math. Why is the ceiling so hard? Because the Indian market is entering a prolonged, multi-year "Time Correction." Here is the concrete, data-backed evidence of the ticking time bomb: 1. The FII Exodus & The Emerging Market Rotation Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) aren't "spooked" by a sudden war - they have been exiting for months. Throughout 2025 and early 2026, FIIs withdrew over ₹2.20 lakh crore from Indian equities. Why? Because the "India premium" is dead. Valuations are brutally high, and there are no real AI/Auto/EV/Renewable Energy plays here. Raw material availability is constrained, and semi-urban & rural demand has slowed. The smart money has already rotated capital to cheaper markets like China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. They are leaving through the back door before the fire alarm even goes off. 2. The Cracking Domestic Shield (Retail Exhaustion) For two years, Retail SIPs and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) propped up this market. But the reservoir is running dry. Recent AMFI data shows monthly SIP inflows dipping from their ₹31,000 crore peaks down to ₹29,845 crore. More terrifying is the "SIP Stoppage Ratio," which has spiked to over 75.6%. Retail investors are exhausted, and DIIs are quietly de-growing their risky microfinance portfolios to sit on cash. They cannot hold the glass floor forever. 3. The Unemployment & Earnings Doom Loop The broader midcap and smallcap markets were priced for absolute economic perfection, but earnings are shrinking. The Index underlying EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth has crashed to a miserable 1.4% YoY. Institutional research desks are actively preparing for severe downgrades. You can trace this directly to the streets: the overall unemployment rate is hovering near 5%, but youth unemployment is staggering at roughly 14% to 16%. With the Labour Force Participation Rate barely crossing 55%, true income generation is stalling. When people don't have jobs, consumer spending dies. When spending dies, corporate earnings crash. 4. The Credit Card Economy (The Unseen Debt Trap) If incomes are down, how is the economy still running? On the fumes of unsecured retail debt. Getting a loan today takes exactly three taps on a smartphone, and millions are falling into the trap to maintain their lifestyles. Credit card NPAs (defaults) have surged massively - jumping by 73% in FY22 and another 28% in FY24. We are facing a severe household debt crisis, forcing the RBI to sound the alarm and increase risk weights on unsecured loans. The "growth" you see isn't real wealth; it is just high-interest borrowed money waiting to default. Amateurs trade the news. Systems thinkers track liquidity, debt, and valuations. Nifty will not see massive upside until corporate earnings actually catch up with these bloated valuations. => The Survival Checklist (How to Invest for the Next 4-5 Years) So, how do you survive a half-decade time correction? You stop fighting the flow and adapt your system. Here is your playbook: • Treat SIPs as a 5-Year Reservoir: Do not stop your SIPs, but completely reset your expectations. Stop looking for overnight multi-baggers. This is an accumulation phase, not a harvesting phase. You are buying units at a discount, not for immediate returns. • Eradicate Unsecured Debt: Before you buy another stock, clear your high-interest personal loans and credit card debt. In a sideways, liquidity-drained market, paying off a 36% APR credit card is the highest guaranteed return you will ever get. • Embrace the Range (F&O): If the market is oscillating between 22,500 and 24,750, directional long-term plays will bleed you dry. Exploit the high-volatility days through strategic options trading. Trade the range, not the dream. • Accumulate at Deep Support Only: Do not catch falling knives. Wait for fundamentally strong, high-cash-flow companies to hit those deep Fibonacci support levels (22,500 / 21,800 / 21000) before deploying heavy capital. • Hoard Cash: Cash is an active position. Maintain a 20-30% cash allocation so you have the firepower to buy when institutional panic creates irrational, localised discounts. The market doesn't care about your portfolio. Survive the grind, accumulate the assets, and let the amateurs get shaken out. Disclaimer: What I have analysed might be proven wrong. Nobody can predict anything with 100% accuracy. But I have a high level of confidence in what I wrote because there is more than enough data to support it. And it will need major governance policies and initiatives to change this data into favourable. Without any intervention or policy change, this is how it is. #stocknews #stockmarkettrader #MarketInsights #buildinpublic

@DealsDhamaka @aravind What if someone is following him so diligently, they make it true whatever he posts?

He does it again & that too 4 days in advance 📌 @aravind is truly a legend

@Cryptified_Soul Other than a few ghettos in every country, it's a very different story in the developed nations. The biggest difference is cleaner air, a much better civic sense and a brilliantly planned infrastructure.

I want people to visit some developed foreign countries. Then they will understand what they are missing out on.

While the entire market is currently fixated on equities, crude oil, and gold, CRYPTO is silently consolidating at a critical 52-week low support level. It's gearing up for a massive structural upside, and not many are talking about it. Let's know when, how & where to invest in crypto. Read till the end! Why crypto? - ​We keep working harder than ever, yet our savings buy less every year. This isn't an accident or bad luck; it is a mathematical flaw in the money we are forced to use. If we want to stop bleeding wealth, we need to understand why money is broken and how the crypto market cycle was engineered to fix it. ​As Lyn Alden brilliantly breaks down in her book Broken Money, the global financial system faced a massive problem a century ago. Gold was excellent at holding its value because it was scarce, but it was too heavy and slow to ship around the world for modern trade. To speed things up, we switched to paper currency. It was fast and easy to send, but it came with a massive hidden cost: governments could print an infinite amount of it. Every time central banks printed more money, the cash sitting in our savings accounts lost its purchasing power. We traded "hard" money that protected our wealth for "fast" money that constantly melts away. ​Bitcoin and top-tier crypto assets were designed to solve this exact historical trap. They finally give us the speed of a digital email, combined with the absolute scarcity of physical gold. To navigate this market, bookmark this simple framework comparing the two ledgers we can store our wealth in: ​• The Fiat System: Infinite supply, controlled by central banks, and mathematically guaranteed to lose value over time to pay off national debt. • The Crypto System (BTC): A strict hard cap of 21 million, run by a transparent global network, and structurally designed to become harder to produce every four years. ​So, how do we actually leverage this to make money right now? The crypto cycle is driven by global liquidity. As central banks inevitably start cutting rates and printing money to support their economies, that fresh cash floods into hard, scarce assets. For our portfolios, this means major assets like BTC and ETH should not be treated as quick casino bets, but as structural anchors. Instead of trying to day-trade chaotic daily wicks with high leverage, the highest-probability execution is to build core "spot" positions in BTC and ETH during standard 20% to 25% market pullbacks. We accumulate them when the market is quiet, and it's very quiet right now. It's time to build those spot positions. Rule of Thumb: 1. Portfolio allocation for crypto should not exceed 10-15%. 2. Only buy BTC & ETH (spot). No leveraging. 3. If you want to diversify your crypto portfolio more, make it BTC (50%), ETH (30%) and 5% each of XRP, BNB, SOL & DOGE. 4. Invest using apps like CoinSwitch or CoinDCX. Are you using these market pullbacks to accumulate crypto, or are you only focusing on equities? Follow for more such actionable insights & trade setups!

@NanaY219157 @thevirdas Haha. Biden got hopeful.

@AniketFiles @thevirdas He has seen 999 versions of multiverse where the strait is definitely close but only 1 that’s open. He chose to believe that one and remain hopeful. Little did he know that in that One universe, he is not the US president.

Just woke up. Has trump declared the strait opened, closed, reopened, re closed, partially opened, opening with a closing, closing with an opening, wide open, side open?

@Cryptified_Soul Yes. That's right. If anyone is investing everything and keeping no cash, they are risking it all.

@AniketFiles You need to have cash all the time

What if your portfolio reaches ATH by may What would you do?

@RajuKaju23 @gurjota Right right. I meant that only. That they too are at ATH

@AniketFiles @gurjota Adani power nearing??? Adani Power is hitting daily ATH since last 7 days

40 stocks near All Time Highs in Nifty 500 index

The Classic "Trader's Dilemma" - TRAILING STOP LOSS Keep the gap too tight, and stupid wicks hunt your SL. Keep the gap too wide, and you bleed accumulated profits when the trend breaks. So, how do you mathematically size your trailing SL? You stop guessing and start using volatility. The most effective technical indicator for this is the Average True Range (ATR). Because ATR measures current market volatility, it expands your SL gap when the market is wild and tightens it when the market calms down. Here are the 3 systematic ways to trail your stops: 1. The ATR Multiplier Method: Instead of using a random percentage, use a multiple of the ATR. This ensures your gap is wide enough to survive standard market noise but tight enough to capture reversals. Formula: SL = Price - (n * ATR) The Multipliers: • 1.5x ATR: Aggressive/Tight. Good for fast momentum. High risk of getting "wicked out." • 2.0x ATR: The Industry Standard. Sits just outside the "normal" volatility zone. • 3.0x ATR: Conservative/Wide. Best for long-term swing trades to survive minor corrections. 2. PSAR (Parabolic Stop and Reverse): Designed specifically for trailing, PSAR appears as dots above or below the price. • The Logic: It has a built-in acceleration factor. The more the asset moves in your favour, the faster the stop-loss tightens. • Execution: Purely mechanical. If a candle touches the dot, you exit. Period. 3. Chandelier Exit: A specialised indicator combining ATR with the recent highest price. It "hangs" your trailing stop from the highest point the asset has reached since your entry. • The Logic: Calculates the Highest High of the last periods and subtracts 3x the ATR from it. • Execution: It never moves downward. It only moves up as the asset makes new highs, mathematically locking in profits. Which one should you deploy? 👉 2.0x ATR: Best for Day/Swing Trading. (Adaptive; feels custom-fit to the asset). 👉 PSAR: Best for Strong Trends. (Aggressive; moves faster as the trend peaks). 👉 Chandelier: Best for Protecting Big Wins. (Structural; stays consistent relative to the peak). The Golden Rule: If the current ATR on your timeframe is 50 points, and your trailing gap is only 30 points, you are statistically guaranteed to be stopped out by noise. Always ensure your gap is at least 1.5x the ATR. Trade the math. Ignore the noise.

@janwhyy INSTANT GRATIFICATION is the biggest selling strategy on social media. Nobody has the patience for wealth compounding. Everyone wants to get rich yesterday, as if the share market is a lottery arena.

A 17-year-old with 500K followers is recommending retinol to 14-year-olds. She's been using Actives for 8 months. Never consulted a dermatologist. Her source is another reel by another 19-year-old who also learned it from a reel. The dermatologist charges ₹800, gives you 7 minutes, and gives you a prescription for things you seem not to understand. The reel is free, 30 seconds, names 4 ingredients with authority, and ends with "trust me, this changed my life." The dermatologist has a medical degree. The reel has better lighting. The reel wins every time. And it's everywhere now. A 22-year-old who started investing 8 months ago is running a ₹4,999 finance course. A guy who got abs once built an entire coaching business around those 12 weeks. A 23-year-old with one job on her resume is charging for career mentorship calls. The algorithm made this inevitable. "This serum WILL change your skin" gets 500K views. "It depends on your skin type, your water quality, your climate, and whether you're on any medication" gets 3,000. Nuance loses to confidence every single time. Instagram doesn't reward accuracy. It rewards certainty. And certainty is the easiest thing to perform when you don't know enough to doubt yourself. We're raising a generation that takes medical advice from ring lights, financial advice from people who haven't survived a single market crash, and career advice from people who haven't been fired yet. The confidence-to-experience ratio is the most broken metric on the internet right now, and nobody's tracking it.

Portfolio Building (Post 1/n) Indian Economic Theme 1: Green Energy, Power Transmission & EV Charging Stations Stocks in Focus: Tata Power, PFC, NTPC, Adani Power When power stocks print 52-week highs together, the market is telling you one simple thing: in an uncertain tape, money is choosing the businesses that keep the lights on. This is not excitement. This is capital hiding in visible cash flows. Today, on April 20, Adani Power, NTPC, PFC, and Tata Power were all reported at or near fresh 52-week highs. Adani Power was trading in the ₹180–₹200+ intraday range and even logged a 3.29% intraday surge during one session. Analysts are also talking about up to 24% upside in select power names. Four leaders in one sector making new highs at the same time is not random strength; it is sector rotation with institutional participation. The logic is straightforward. The increasing need for green energy, power transmission & EV infrastructure is already the highlight of the Indian economic theme. Then, there is this extreme summer, which raises electricity demand. Questionable monsoon timing keeps power demand elevated for longer, which improves revenue visibility for generators and lenders tied to the sector. Then add geopolitics: when the market is nervous, it stops paying premium prices for stories and starts paying for steady billing cycles. So money leaves fragile themes and moves into “predictable cash machines”. For Nifty, this is supportive in the short term because power, utilities, and power financiers are acting like shock absorbers while other pockets stay choppy. In the next 1 month, watch for Nifty to hold the support levels as long as this leadership remains intact; power can offset weakness from rate-sensitive or export-heavy sectors if global headlines worsen. This is a good signal for utilities, transmission, equipment, and financiers like PFC. Over 9+ months, the bigger trade is not just summer demand but India’s structural power capex cycle. That favours NTPC for stability, PFC for financing flow, and Tata Power for transition optionality. Adani Power remains the high-beta vehicle, implying greater upside and sharper mean reversion if momentum cools. Watch for Nifty breadth: if power keeps making highs while the index stalls, leadership is narrowing, and that matters. The action plan is simple: Do not chase vertical candles blindly. Buy quality names on pullbacks, not on euphoric opens. Prefer the “steady earners” over the “story stocks.” If you already hold winners here, trail stops and let institutional flow do the work. If this sector keeps making higher highs while earnings remain firm, treat dips as opportunities, not dangers. And if you miss the bus, don't try to get on a speeding bus. You will fall and break your bones. Markets have plenty of opportunities. You will be able to board another bus. Are you rotating into power now, or waiting for a pullback to avoid a momentum trap? Legal Disclaimer: I am NOT SEBI registered. The content shared here - including, but not limited to, chart patterns, macro views in equities, F&O, commodities, or crypto, market participation entails significant, fundamental data, and potential trade setups- is intended solely for educational purposes. I do not offer advisory services, tips, or portfolio recommendations. Whether it is equities, F&O, commodities, or crypto, market participation involves severe financial risk. Any action you take is at your own absolute discretion. It is mandatory to apply rigorous risk management and, preferably, consult a registered financial advisor before trading. I assume zero liability for any financial outcomes you experience.

Didn't dive that much. Closed at -0.12%. But moved exactly in the same way as analyzed. Even though my analysis was right, it's sad because the option chain is highly disappointing. Plenty of call writing at 24500, 24700 and 25000. On the downside, 24000 has the maximum put writing. So, guess tomorrow the market is going to make a support at 24k, or will operate in a range between 24k to 25k.

It’s going to be a red day today. It’s the worst news since the war started. Iran has rejected all the negotiation and peace deals. Crude has already jumped 7%. Gold, Silver, Copper, Crypto, Dow, all have plunged. I estimate Nifty to open gap down, do a small recovery (where institutions will eat the available liquidity), and then dive further closing in red by at least 1.2%. 24000 will be the most crucial support level.

Tomorrow many will try to scare you but we have checked the levels. Just like a bearish momentum can’t be broken with one good news, similarly a bullish one can’t be broken with one bad news.

@T_Investor_ Bas ab yahi baaki reh gaya tha. With all the things happening, New Zealand feels like the safest country now.

A massive 7.5 magnitude #earthquake hits off Japanese coast, tsunami alert issued. Japanese PM Takaichi urging coastal residents in northeastern Japan to seek higher ground due to tsunami threat. #Japan

@YuvrajShah02 Is it a pit or a ladder? I was looking for an opportunity to post this dialogue somewhere. No better time than the current situation 😅

Still haven't re-entered my crude short position. Reason #1 - The upside risk vs downside reward is not favourable just yet. I am assuming that crude will settle at $75-80 post the war for a short while before gradually coming back down again. However, if the war escalates again, we can see crude going higher (100-120 range). Reason #2 - The technicals aren't favourable either. Crude has just fallen 25% over the last few days. It has factored in a settlement in the war. It has not yet fully factored in a re-escalation. Therefore, I will continue to monitor the situation and see if I get better prices to short at. Until then it's a waiting game.

@Vida_Jay @thevirdas He is definitely not living in ours. He has disrupted the whole global economy and still dancing like it’s a victory.

@AniketFiles @thevirdas Trump doesn’t know which multiverse he lives in

@6ytheway @thevirdas If they open and close it in a sequence at the speed of light, would it look closed or open? Remember, this is not a drill. This is real.

@AniketFiles @thevirdas It’s not all that simple or clear-cut. Some of them are closing up, while others are starting to open. Sometimes what looks like a strait turns out to be just a bay.

Public humiliation, online trolling, and bullying using digital means constitute a cybercrime in India, primarily governed by the Information Technology (IT) Act, 2000, and supplemented by the Indian Penal Code (IPC). Section 500 IPC (Criminal Defamation):Punishes anyone who defames another person, including through abusive emails or social media posts. Punishments for these offenses can involve fines up to Rs. 10 lakh and imprisonment ranging from 2 years to 7 years, depending on the severity and whether it is a subsequent conviction.

Meet Priyanka Deshmukh Self identified Radical Bahujan Feminist She's calling parents of Martyr Anshuman Singh Rape abettors Claiming she would have packed them in Blue Drum if she was in place of Smriti Singh Anshuman's father Subedar Ravi Pratap Singh is also an Army Veteran This is the most disgusting post I have seen for a family that's sacrificed so much for the nation Please report this post : x.com/i/status/20457…

@shiladitya4u If I can add one more, pick one good backtested strategy and just stick with it. Even if the win rate is 50% and R:R is a conservative 1:2, your portfolio will still be green.

If you are in the markets for a couple of years or more, and you are still underperforming the broader indices, like - Midcap 150, Smallcap 250, Microcap 250 It's time for you to take a hard look at what you are doing wrong... Steps to improve your performance : 1. Measure - If you can't measure, you can't improve. The Zerodha equity account value in dashboard is good one, but better to have your own spreadsheet. The only thing that matters is portfolio performance, not individual stock performance. 2. Acknowledge - Improvement starts from acknowledging that your performance in not up to the mark !! 3. Define what kind of trader or investor you are ?? Your methodology could be anything - technical, fundamental or techno-funda. Your time horizon could be short, medium or long term. There are 100 ways to make money in markets. You can use growth, value, breakouts etc.. Find a methodology which suits your skills and midset. This is the key to success in markets - you can't copy others & be successful. 4. Have a well-documented process - Irrespective of whatever methodology you follow, your process should cover - entry criteria exit criteria position sizing risk management. 5. Have a trading journal - Each and every transaction needs to be documented in the journal along with the reason why you are making the transaction. This is the best way to learn from your mistakes and improve continuously. Like any other field be in engineering or medicine or sports - success in markets requires passion, time, effort, discipline, perseverance. There's no silver bullets, no shortcuts. Only the good old fashioned grind day in and day out 😀😀 Also, my suggestion is to start with a small capital (lets say 10% of your networth), put the rest in good mutual funds. Once you see you are performing well & you gain confidence, then slowly start moving more capital towards direct equity. At least, that's what I did !! Sorry for the long rant .. Hope it helps !! 🙏🙏

Crude Oil is fire right now. You might burn your hands there. Totally dependent on the war. If something happens in the night, and it jumps up sharply by 6-7%, your GTT Stop loss will trigger but won’t square off your position due to huge gap up. Can result in huge loss depending on your exposure.

@Cryptified_Soul what is your POV on crude oil futures shorting? is there good enough momentum there to NOT miss ?

Selling right now is like losing the actual momentum zone. This is where you get abrupt spikes, big ones. Remember, not all stocks will run in a single day; therefore, they will take turns. So don’t jump around. Enjoy! I am not talking about today but this short time cycle till we reach the levels I have already provided. Don’t lose the momentum zone