Kristian Ulrichsen

Pleased to announce the publication of Qatar and the Gulf Crisis, now available from @HurstPublishers in London. The book will be published in North America by Oxford University Press on May 1, 2020. hurstpublishers.com/book/qatar-and…

@FDjerejian @Baker_CME It all so awful in every way

I wrote about the significance of Ras Laffan in a 2020 book about Qatar

'On my visits to the region in fall 2025, it became clear that many officials in the Gulf viewed the ceasefire that ended the 12-day war as, at best, a temporary cessation of hostilities & feared that the next round of fighting would be far more damaging, for Iran & the region.'

The West Coast is part of Asia as far as the oil market is concerned. It is getting hit very hard right now. (It's also the only part of the country that imports ME crude in large volumes).

The administration now faces a stark choice—one it can no longer avoid. A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it. B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric. What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win. The longer the administration pretends otherwise, the higher the cost will be #IranWar‌

NEW: Sources tell me frustration inside the Trump White House is mounting over Israel’s latest strikes — with one person familiar describing them as “very reckless.” Qatar has privately warned U.S. officials that targeting energy infrastructure “needs to be stopped,” the source says. More from my reporting with @politico colleagues @scottpwaldman @EliStokols @SophiaCai99 👇 politico.com/news/2026/03/1…

My latest analysis for @ArabCenterDC on responses in GCC states to the war on Iran arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-g…

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen argues that the US-Israeli war on #Iran has exposed the #Gulf states to severe economic and security shocks about which they warned but failed to avert. The crisis may lead #GCC leaders to strengthen cooperation as they rethink regional security, energy infrastructure, and their reliance on external partners. @Dr_Ulrichsen arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-g…

Qatar state-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has published a statement detailing the overnight damage, providing more granularity (particularly around the damage of the GTL plant).

Dismayed that the head of the @WashingtonPost comms team would post so disparagingly about our laid-off colleagues. There is so much solidarity and respect among and between those who remained and those who were cut. This is the opposite.

Pearl GTL has been hit – and is now offline. This cannot be understated. Pearl is not just another facility. It is the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant, one of the most complex and capital-intensive energy projects ever built. Operated by Shell, it taps directly into Qatar’s North Field and converts gas into high-value liquid fuels at massive scale: • ~140,000 b/d of GTL products • ~120,000 b/d of NGLs and ethane This is not marginal supply. This is core, high-quality barrel substitution capacity. The project itself is enormous: – $19 billion capex – Fully integrated from offshore wells to export – Two GTL trains online since 2011 – One of Shell’s top three assets globally by value And now it’s offline. This is a structural hit, not a headline. What makes Pearl even more critical is not just scale – it’s what it produces and how it reaches the market. Shell’s downstream and global supply chain is a key advantage in monetising these specialised GTL products. Much of the base oil output feeds directly into Shell Lubricants, anchoring a high-margin value chain. The slate is unique: • ultra-clean diesel and kerosene • naphtha for petrochemicals • n-paraffins and premium base oils QatarEnergy also plays a central role in marketing, with years of experience placing GTL products into global markets. And Pearl is not just big – it is exceptionally reliable. Known for uniform, high-quality output, it has carved out premium niches: – aromatic-free fuels used in urban environments like the Paris Olympics – high-performance drilling fluids that helped Shell capture share in the US Take this offline, and you don’t just lose barrels. You lose specialised molecules, premium margins, and deeply integrated supply chains. At a time when LNG is disrupted, crude flows are constrained, and refining systems are under pressure, this removes one of the most sophisticated conversion hubs in the global energy system. The market is not just tightening. It is losing quality, flexibility, and resilience – all at once. 🛢️

QatarEnergy CEO and Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida Al-Kaabi says the fallout from the Iranian attack is enormous: Three affected facilities are tied to about $20 billion in lost annual revenue, while rebuilding the damaged infrastructure would mean replacing assets that cost roughly $26 billion to construct. The attack damaged 2 of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and 1 of its 2 GTL plants. The export hit is equally severe: Qatar’s LNG exports are down 17%, condensate exports are expected to fall by about 24%, and LPG exports by 13%. Al-Kaabi warned Qatar may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years, adding that any restoration of production first depends on an end to hostilities.

My take on yesterday's developments and what the attacks mean for Qatar and the other Gulf States theconversation.com/targeting-of-e…

Indeed. Monstrously large and complex and expensive and slow to rebuild.

The latest on the situation was n Qatar by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s incomparable Anne-Sophie Corbeau #what_is_the_impact_of_the_recent_attacks_on_south_pars_and_ras_laffan_on_natural_gas_markets" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">energypolicy.columbia.edu/us-israeli-att…

US Vice President Vance plus other senior officials are meeting with the American oil industry today (at the API hq, rather than at the White House). It would be ironic if the US oil lobby was the one which put a brake on the White House's war campaign. I think that's likely.

@AburdeneOdeh @ishaantharoor 🙏

@Dr_Ulrichsen @ishaantharoor Kristian analysis is always on top of reality . His analysis shows knowledge , command of the facts and deep understanding of the energy industry .

“I woke up this morning and thought, ‘No, please no,’” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a former head of gas analysis at BP (...) “This has always been my nightmare scenario, my Armageddon scenario, the one I didn’t want to happen.” ft.com/content/5b66d9…

You have US officers sitting in IDF combat cells (and vice versa). Air campaign is tightly coordinated bw the 2 militaries. US military was - before yday - responsible for Iran's southern flank & waters. And as others have pointed out: no chance Bibi does this without Trump greenlight But we're supposed to believe US didn't know about South Pars strike ahead of time.