“Hey buddy, yous needs advice on petchem or something pal? I got a guy.”
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Ryan Cummings
4.9K posts
Ryan Cummings
@weakinstrument
Chief of Staff @SIEPR. PhD'ing @UW. I research energy markets during the transition and consumer sentiment. Views my own.
Palo Alto, CA Katılım Mart 2020
1.9K Takip Edilen2.8K Takipçiler
This is why Odd Lots is so GOATed honestly. What other podcast do you listen to that has a petchem guy like an old Italian man has a guy that they call whenever something breaks in their house?
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
@MattNoahSmith I don’t see how it wouldn’t. But we should have our petchem expert back on
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
The West Coast is part of Asia as far as the oil market is concerned. It is getting hit very hard right now.
(It's also the only part of the country that imports ME crude in large volumes).
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin
You know those "dubai physical barrels" you hear so much about? Well, in California, they're exposed to that price because the asian refiners that the state imports gasoline and components from are buying Gulf oil @weakinstrument heatmap.news/energy/califor…
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Updated from me and @nealemahoney. After slowing down last week, the surge in gasoline prices is starting to run away from the spike observed after Russia/Ukraine.
90 cents/gallon increase in just 19 days, or ~5c/day. >$375M consumers are paying every day than before the war.
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
You know those "dubai physical barrels" you hear so much about? Well, in California, they're exposed to that price because the asian refiners that the state imports gasoline and components from are buying Gulf oil @weakinstrument heatmap.news/energy/califor…
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@mtkonczal @greg_ip Don’t listen to them Mike. They’re jealous
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@greg_ip Table 1 here + Claude chats + vibes.
I'm being told by those who sweat these details the overall number feels high. 🤷
federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/t…
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Does this quick multiplication feel ballpark right, given where we are?
Jeff Stein@JStein_WaPo
SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for the Iran war supplemental, sources say Some White House aides think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress
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@atrembath The cognitive dissonance b/n “progressives” that liked him and the genuine eugenics/white supremacist undertones of his arguments is astounding. He literally came up with his whole hypothesis because he visited India and thought it was too dirty and there were too many Indians!
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Paul Ehrlich is not anyone’s hero (except the climate scientist quoted most frequently by mainstream media 😬)
Levi Henze@HenzeTimon
Not my hero, not anyone’s
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If oil gets to $138, we'll likely have national gas price averages in excess of $5.25/gallon, breaking the previous record of $5.02 set in June 2022.
Greg Ip@greg_ip
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war. wsj.com/economy/econom…
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
Ryan Cummings retweetledi
These barrels were going to China. It was just a matter of price. Unsanctioned, Iran will only get a better price.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
.@SecScottBessent: In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.
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@marthagimbel I typically put as much in mouth as possible and hold it there for as long as I can
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We’re going to use Iranian barrels against the Iranians by giving them upwards of $14 billion in immediate revenue which can then be used to manufacture and purchase even more weapons
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
.@SecScottBessent: In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
Since the U.S. launched military operations against Iran, and especially since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, gas prices have spiked.
But pain at the pump is just the beginning, warn @weakinstrument and @nealemahoney in @TIME .
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
Reminder: Moscow is the single greatest beneficiary of the Iran War.
Credit where due, the Trump admin had actually seriously squeezed the Russian oil trade over the past ~6+ months.
And now all the progress have been unwound in 2 weeks.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
INDIA BUYS OVER 30M BARRELS OF STRANDED RUSSIAN OIL – WSJ
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
@redbuckman I anticipate a lot of “sorry I had to step out of the room”’s
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What do we call rising prices, higher unemployment, and slower growth....
Kevin Gordon@KevRGordon
The dilemma for this Fed: *Unemployment rate still in an uptrend over the past couple years *National average price of gasoline about to reach its highest since 2022
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We estimate that if the SoH wasn't closed, national average gas prices for the month of March would average ~$3.00/gallon (up from $2.90), but instead are set to average $3.70.
So similiar to Patrick's intuition, ~90% of the increase in gas prices is from Iran, ~10% is seasonal
Patrick De Haan@GasBuddyGuy
great question- it's a nuance- depends on state/location dynamics, but nationally, I'd estimate >~90% of the rise is due to the Iran situation and <~10% is the seasonality
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Great chatting with @JeanneKuang
Whether it's federal or state, suspending the gas tax is not a serious or responsible proposal. But there is an opportunity for policymakers to re-evaluate how we collect money for our roads and public infrastructure.
calmatters.org/politics/2026/…
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