Ryan Cummings
5.2K posts
Ryan Cummings
@weakinstrument
Chief of Staff @SIEPR. PhD'ing @UW. I research energy markets during the transition and consumer sentiment. Views my own.
Palo Alto, CA Katılım Mart 2020
1.9K Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
One of the fun byproducts of high gas prices is I get to do fun math word-problems with my kids deciding how far to drive to get cheaper gas and still makes it worth it
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Question for #OOTT . Are Platts and Argus the only two players with decent alkylate price series?
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@arpitrage Oh so now it's a method 🙄🙄🙄. "Public" economists truly know no shame.
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Wait if "health, education, and welfare" are seperate from Public, then what is Public??
The people who say they do Public Econ need to provide some answers! No one is believing that you can Voltron together like 9 fields and just call it "Public."
The jig is up, folks!!!
Noah Williams@Bellmanequation
The AER published *3* papers on macroeconomics in 2024
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
@arpitrage I unironically do think the health benefits of drinking with others as a way to form community are seriously underestimated.
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@weakinstrument Wow Wisconsin must have really bad health outcomes
*checks notes* hmm
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Never ask a woman her age,
A man his salary,
And a firm the shape of their marginal cost curve.
Sean Frank@Seanfrank
Every negotiation with suppliers: “Hey we want to add an extra zipper, how much would that be?” “Zippers? Prices have been going up. It will be $2 dollars to get another zipper on here” “Oh okay, let’s skip it and let’s actually remove the one we have then to save $2 on cogs” “What? Zippers are cheap. Removing the zipper might only save you 10 cents. Best to keep it”
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@Jabaluck @instrumenthull @RadishHarmers It's not my field, so don't want to get out of my lane, but it is hard to see from first principles why this would be so distorionary without making some extreme assumptions. Happy to understand why it would be, though.
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That not as bad as $10 million but I don't think anyone would advocate for a cap with a 100% marginal tax rate at $1 billion except as a second best policy with the (dubious) rationale that a better policy couldn't marshal public support. The view that wealth taxes should be high enough that it's almost impossible to accumulate $1 billion would probably be advocated by a few, although still a very small fraction.
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This is a very bad take that would not be endorsed by any mainstream academic economist. It would seriously impede the development of large firms, which likely play a central role in productivity growth and helping low-income countries reduce poverty @RadishHarmers
Sridhar Ramesh@RadishHarmers
It doesn't matter if you're a moral person. You still don't deserve to be a billionaire. No individual deserves so much more unilateral power than others, which is harmful to society, and nothing useful is lost in incentive difference between $10 million or so and billionaire.
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@instrumenthull @Jabaluck @RadishHarmers Idk about $10 million but I think there's a lot of respectable economists who would say there's probably pretty limited incentive effects once wealth exceeds $1 billion? In fact I think to argue that there is requires some extreme assumptions on bequests and curvature of MUc?
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@Jabaluck @RadishHarmers Fun proposal to identify respect
Copenhagen, Denmark 🇩🇰 English
@talmonsmith Me, as a small business owner selling my goods and services into the free market: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!
Me, as a small business owner buying labor services in the free market: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.
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"I'm on a livestock farm and it is impossible to find help. Any warm body expects $20/hour for what should be a minimum wage job."
^^somebody tell this guy about the concept of a Reservation Wage
Kevin Gordon@KevRGordon
The latest NFIB small business labor report is filled with concerns over finding workers, as well as labor quality. A standout quote is: “The economy isn’t nearly as bad for my business outlook as the upcoming workforce is.”
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Hard not to feel like econ blogging died a horrible death in the late 2010s but has risen like Lazarus and is perhaps even better now than it was before. Incredible analysis being generated by so many high-quality folks. You love to see it!
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦@lugaricano
We stopped everything to write an answer (link below) to Paul Krugman's two posts of today (one informal, one with a simple model) arguing that Europe is broadly not falling behind the United States. The change measured by the Draghi report, he argues, is mostly due to growth in the technology industry, which has distorted GDP numbers without actually leading to higher standards of living. We should believe our eyes when we walk around France and walk around Mississippi. Krugman is wrong. The measures he uses understate European stagnation. This matters enormously. Divergence with the United States is the strongest evidence for reform in Europe. 1. The growth numbers Krugman compares the United States, France, and Germany at purchasing power parity in current prices. On that measure, France's and Germany's position relative to America has been roughly constant since 2000. But current price comparisons miss productivity gains in sectors where prices fall. If America produces twice as much software while the price of each unit halves, the value of American software output looks unchanged even though the volume has doubled. Most economists therefore use constant prices, which fix the base-year PPP level and apply each country's real output growth on top of it. American output growth has concentrated in tech, where prices have fallen tremendously as productivity rises. In terms of the volume of things produced, America has pulled away from Europe. 2. Is it all the tech industry? Krugman concedes this tech divergence but says it is not welfare-relevant. The American growth lead is an accounting artefact of measuring more iPhones at base-year prices, not a sign that Americans are actually richer, because Europeans buy the same iPhones at the same world prices. This is not the right way to think about the world today, as an earlier Paul Krugman would have argued. His model assumes tradable goods, interchangeable workers, marginal-cost pricing, and no profits. Each assumption fails. Most of what households buy is non-tradable: housing, healthcare, childcare, education. When American tech firms bid workers from haircutting to coding, American haircut wages rise. Germany has no growing tech sector to do the bidding, so German wages stay flat. Technology is not priced at marginal cost. Apple's margins are around 40 percent. Anthropic's inference margins are at 70 percent. The major platforms enjoy network effects, switching costs, and lock-in that hold prices well above what a competitive market would deliver. A large share of the productivity gains in technology stays as profit. A lot of the value of American technology dominance shows up in equity, not in wages. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon together are worth $21 trillion, more than the entire combined stock market value of all European stock markets. Around 60 percent of US equity is held by American households. The median French or Spanish household holds almost no equity. The median employee at Meta, a company with almost 80,000 employees, earned $388,000 in 2025. This advantage is not going to go away. Krugman's own 1991 paper, cited in his Nobel prize, showed that comparative advantage in modern industries is produced by increasing returns to scale, specialized labor markets, supplier networks and the agglomeration of suppliers, workers, and ideas in particular places. Once an industry concentrates somewhere, the concentration is self-reinforcing. Europe is being pushed away from the next round of technology industries (AI!). 3. What about inequality? Another retort is that GDP per capita hides substantial inequality, and so even if America is rich on average, this is mostly due to the super wealthy. But despite the US's high pre-tax income inequality, it also achieves higher median incomes than Europe, in part because of such a high base, and in part because it actually redistributes more than many European countries. The cleanest comparison is median equivalised disposable household income: income after cash taxes and transfers, adjusted for household size and purchasing power. According to the OECD's 2021 numbers, the median American earns 30 percent more than the median Dutchman, about 31 percent more than the median German, and about 52 percent more than the median Frenchman. 4. What about hours worked? Krugman points out that while American GDP per person is higher, most of this is because Americans work more. For this divergence to be an hours worked story, Americans must work more relative to Europeans now than they did in 2000. The opposite has happened. Birinci, Karabarbounis, and See in a 2026 NBER paper show that about half of the American-European hours gap that existed in the 1990s has reversed by the end of the 2010s. Americans work fewer hours per person than they did in 2000, while most Europeans work more. 5. Is America not a bad place to live? Walk around Alabama and France: surely the former cannot be substantially richer than the latter? American cities often have poorer centres and richer suburbs or exurbs. European cities preserve richer and more attractive historic cores. A visit to a city as a tourist in America compared with a city in France will leave one having seen different spots on the income distribution. Americans in Europe go to the nicest and richest European cities. Rather than a walking around test, do a driving around test. Go to the periphery of any modern American city and see a level of new-built material wealth that is extremely uncommon in Europe, with thousands of enormous four- or five-bedroom homes. In the South, in places like Nashville and Austin, drive around the downtowns to see hundreds of luxury apartment buildings springing from the ground. This construction boom is replicated virtually nowhere in Europe today. The other question is generational. Housing often costs more in Europe than in the United States, despite the quality of the housing stock generally being much better. Europe has nice city cores but these are inaccessible to young Europeans. Consider the salaries available to entry-level workers. The starting pay for a London police officer is $57,000. In Washington, DC, $75,000. The entry-level Deloitte consultant job in Madrid pays around €28,000, roughly $33,000 per year. In Charlotte, the entry-level Deloitte job pays $63,000. There are many things to dislike about life in America. But relative to 25 years ago, the gap in material wealth has shifted dramatically in America's favor. siliconcontinent.com/p/european-sta…
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
NEW @YahooSports:
If last night was truly LeBron James’ final game as a Laker, he’ll walk away knowing he had a Hall of Fame career *based solely on his 8 Lakers years.*
LeBron has now stacked 4 HOF careers, and I shared all the data to prove it: sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/ki…
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For those tracking the vibecession debate, Daniel+@econJaredB have come as close to solving the puzzle as anything I've seen.
They find the reason sentiment has diverged from data is not that inflation jumped, but that it jumped from away from trend after decades of stability.
Daniel Posthumus@danielposthumu2
1/ New piece out with the incredible @econJaredB. We dig into what's been on everybody's mind — affordability, consumer sentiment, and whether we've cracked the mystery of the vibes puzzle: siepr.stanford.edu/publications/p…
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
9/ We drop this variable into the model that had been failing to predict sentiment. Suddenly the vibes gap closes. The puzzle is solved once you account for people’s surprise at how high prices are, relative to their pre-COVID expectations.
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
8/ Then, measure the gap between where prices actually are and where the pre-COVID trend said they'd be. We call this the “price-spike” variable.
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California's jungle primary system is apalling. The legislature should 1) get rid of it and 2) implement ranked choice voting.
And if Democrats nationally want to be the party of "democracy," then it should push its most visible state to be at the vanguard of these efforts.
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Ryan Cummings retweetledi
This reader comment on a NY Times column where Ross Douthat ponders that maybe God is speaking to us through A.I. is an absolute fastball on the corner with movement, and deserves a column. "Lightening was once mysterious too; mystery did not make Zeus correct" is perfect.
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Easy explanation: 85 year olds didn't have access to twitter 50 years ago. Now they do. It's good for the brain.
Nicolas Badre@BadreNicolas
The odds of having dementia at age 85 were close to 1 in 3 in the 80s; now they are 1 in 10. I don’t think we have a great explanation: better cardiovascular health, diet, and education are often mentioned. Good news nonetheless. Carnall Farrar. (2025, March 27). Dementia trends.
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