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"The schizo science behind 700K Dayrates by 2027"
I wrote an offshore article , would love to hear some thoughts. $VAL $RIG $SDRL #offshore
open.substack.com/pub/ruckingfet…
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Rucking fetard
2.1K posts
Rucking fetard
@FMetard
If investors can believe in NPV5s of levered shitcos, you can believe in yourself. 🙏 🙏
At the bar, Belgium Inscrit le Kasım 2020
1.1K Abonnements418 Abonnés
3. Scale/momentum of Iran escalation is strenght of Tungsten China v West decoupling mechanism.
Strategic relevancy up -> Economic reasoning export materially down
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2. Iran: The longer the “ceasefire” while actively U.S. relocating resources (ships/planes/men/cargo etc in troops) -> greater sunk cost -> likelihood of big event increases -> tungsten demand up, timeline of sourcing compresses
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$EQR.AX #Tungsten
Proxy drivers (Macro > Micro)
1. The *deeper* the Ukrainain strikes in Russia, the more aggressive Russia scales mil buildup & the more aggressive Rus will be vs enablers (EU).
-> EU timeline compress & volume ammo prod increases, same Russia
Bid Bird@BidBird10
SMM Rotterdam APT-prices unchanged this week despite the major haircut in China prices. SMM reported a -4% price decrease in Rotterdam price last week, but Fastmarkets remained flattish. We will see tomorrow if its Fastmarkets’ turn to go down this week. $EQR.ax #Tungsten
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Rucking fetard retweeté
3. Project resume, you got a DM/Call from mgmt hearing you solved X problem or did Y project, Your work does the pitching you never intended to do
You are a % of project value add structurally improving economics with insights, no corpo bs, pitching is a dm you send on your time
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2. Paper resume, you remove the dumb things and just list the projects you did, the skills you have visibly derived from those
Impressive work, good understanding, confidene through ability. You are a $/project value add. You pitch yourself with the quality you deliver
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Highly encourage people to cultivate a broad understanding of buisness / logistics / operations / economics.
Your resume becomes the first headache you removed/new insight you gave DM'ing the manager who usually hates DMs
taobanker@taobanker
If you're not lying on your resume you're losing opportunities to people who are
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@JoshYoung
@BisonInsights
Mind validating / invalidating this insight? Mostly oriented at canadian spot pipeline flow buyers
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Red indications: Pipeline capacity constraints assumed pre-Iran
Blue marked: Pipeline capacity post-Iran
Q42026/Q12027: flow redirection to the pacific keeps utilisation <100%
2029: Industry considers MLO2 speculative, Iran war 10x's likelihood that it gets build
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I know BoomerCapital Inc. shorts are reading this and thinking "heh if the Iran situation resolves, Mid-east supply displaces the cad oil pushed through the pacific & pipeline constraints add up again for OBE"
Current "fasttracked" oil infra dmg keeps bid for CAD oil >18 months
Rucking fetard@FMetard
$OBE Oil shitco The 2025 short thesis: 1. WCS diff blow-out (Pipeline constraints): Planned production growth of Canadian majors (Have priority contracted pipe flow vs OBE spot flow) strains pipe capacity >100% utilisation by Q1 2027, blowing up the diff for spot flow buyers.
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With variable parameters:
-delusion
-disregard of people's thoughts about him
Usually one can gauge that the person using this dynamic is losing strenght in his future assumptions as he jokes less / closes convo's quickly / more serious & direct.
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Psychoanalysis trick:
Person thinks he holds the cards / has more information will "power posture" with surface jokes as he assumes the future outcome will validate his nonchalance.
"i'm putting myself on the back foot acting foolish, stepping twice as far out in the future"
Energy Headline News@OilHeadlineNews
Trump: "We're not going to be traveling 15, 16 hours to have a meeting with people that nobody ever heard of. Too much travel. Takes too long. Too expensive. I'm a very cost-conscious person."
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@GavMcCracken Well with the short interest still this high, i'd assume the shorts are using a 2025 basis
Shorting it in 2026 is ludicrous, i think they forgot about the position and left it open
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I made arguments like "you guys realize Russia vs Ukraine took no global supply offline but oil hit $140 right? Now 12% of the supply is gone, oil is the blood of the global economy and there's been a stroke."
Then eyebrows would lift, but still not the interest that's deserved.
Gavin@GavMcCracken
Talked to four quantitative finance firms today. Can confirm finance people don't understand the depth of the strait of Hormuz oil crisis. No one even knew at least 11% of global oil production is offline, we have so much higher to go as this information is disseminated.
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@GavMcCracken Have you seen my 2025 short idea on $OBE? I don't think much has changed, the shorts are right to sunbath on the beaches of talum without checking their laptop
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We've got substantially higher to go oil bulls. Once the mid-term quants realize an amazing midterm trade involves predicting tanker traffic and how the current tanker disruption will inflect oil and fuel products, thats when a rerate occurs.
Until then the capital won't flow.
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>Blow up/martyr the main guy for discussions who is favourved & backed by the ones military/political power
>The plan to divide central control to 31 military independant regions is literally public
>Suprised he can't just phone a guy to do a deal with
The White House@WhiteHouse
“Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!” - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸
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Can the EU stop fagging around?
EU litterally threaded over a nuclear armed power's stated red line.
While leaving every discussion request as an unread e-mail, declaring it "insignificant & grey-zone territory" smugly smirking as the requests piled up..
WAR@warsurv
🇷🇺🇪🇺 Russia issues a serious warning to Europe Moscow says any country hosting nuclear capable aircraft linked to Emmanuel Macron could become a military target. Russia also warns it may update its list of targets if France expands nuclear deployments across NATO members. Europe’s push for strategic independence is increasingly colliding with rising nuclear tensions. Source: Live India
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I suggest the current shorts of 2026 open up their laptop. I know your wife said "no work" on your Tulum vacation but it's going to cost you the ability to pay those resort fees
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4. Dawson pilot delivered: Flattened production profile with consistent water injectivity, the injections are actively creating back-pressure pushing oil towards the wells, upgrading reserves & operational optionality.
Lessons learned to replicate the waterflood on other wells.
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$OBE Oil shitco
The 2025 short thesis:
1. WCS diff blow-out (Pipeline constraints):
Planned production growth of Canadian majors (Have priority contracted pipe flow vs OBE spot flow) strains pipe capacity >100% utilisation by Q1 2027, blowing up the diff for spot flow buyers.
Arturo@cervellette
I’ve allocated a large portion of my portfolio to $OBE.TO $OBE but what I did not consider was the short squeeze potential. CA & US exchanges have a total ~9.78 million shares sold short with total daily volume of 1.54mil: 6.4 days to cover (DTC)
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