Financial Sense

Interview with Mark Mills on oil, Iran War, AI, and more: Global Markets Experiencing Dramatic "Recoupling" to Oil and Commodities @MarkPMills @EnergyRealities Listen here >> financialsense.com/podcast/21600/…

Navy ships and submarines have fired more than 850 Tomahawk missiles in the first four weeks of Operation Epic Fury. Replenishing inventory after this campaign will take time, and creates near-term risk for the United States. More from @CSISDefense: csis.org/analysis/850-t…

Must read: US-China Battlefield Flows Through Critical Materials, Industrial Power, and Global Chokepoints financialsense.com/blog/21602/us-…

BREAKING: Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG contracts through May 2026, canceling obligations to customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, accounting for 20% of global LNG production.

John Roque at 22V Research Issues Market Warning: Internals Breaking Down, Potential Downside Ahead @daChartLife $SPX #oil #IranWar‌ Listen here: financialsense.com/podcast/21599/…

Pentagon prepares for massive "final blow" of Iran war trib.al/puzc4h6

This chart has been doing the rounds since oil spiked again. But before jumping to conclusions, a few things worth noting. First, the chart only goes to 2022 — and many people glossed over the fact that the 2022 spike never led to a recession. That's a false positive hiding in plain sight on the right edge of the graph. Second, the indicator missed 2 out of 8 recessions entirely — it's not the crystal ball it's being sold as. The natural inclination is to look at the 6 correct calls and say "6/8=75% chance of recession." But that ignores the false positive, the base rate of recessions, and some basic probability. When you plug the full track record into Bayes' Theorem — 6 hits, 2 misses, 1 false alarm, and the fact that recessions only occur about 7% of the time — the probability of recession based on this signal alone comes out to roughly 33%. Less than a coin toss. The 2022 false alarm is especially relevant. It showed that today's economy can absorb an oil shock without tipping into recession — something that wasn't true in the 1970-1990's. And there's a fundamental reason for that: back then, the U.S. was a net oil importer, meaning every price spike was a direct hit to the economy. Today, the U.S. is a net exporter — so an oil spike is actually a tailwind for a significant chunk of domestic industry. If anything, the false positive rate for this indicator may be rising over time, not falling. So before treating this as a guaranteed recession signal: who's to say we're not simply looking at false positive number two?

Breaking news: Ukraine Knocks Out 40% of Russia's Oil Export Capacity in Baltic Drone Strike $uso oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…

Breaking news: The Middle East crisis will fuel a surge in US inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest in the G7, according to an OECD forecast ft.trib.al/27ocdxe

✨🇨🇳A Chinese company, Unipath, has launched a household robot that is now in real-home use. It can wake users up on time, operate home appliances, organize storage spaces, and even cook meals automatically.

Critical Chokepoints and "Unrestricted Warfare": A Conversation with Craig Tindale (@ctindale) financialsense.com/podcast/21593/…

The Iran war has caused the gravest energy shock of all time, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, adding that it could take six months or longer to fully restore oil and gas flows from the Gulf. ft.trib.al/oyV13Oa

Israel struck South Pars — the world's largest natural gas field, shared between Iran and Qatar's North Dome/North Field. QatarEnergy confirmed "extensive damage." IRGC issued evacuation orders for energy assets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE simultaneously — a tacit admission that retaliatory escalation against Gulf energy infrastructure is now active policy. Qatar responded by expelling Iran's military and security attachés from Doha. South Pars produces approximately 500 million cubic metres of natural gas per day and supplies the majority of Iran's domestic energy needs alongside significant LNG export volumes. South Pars is not a marginal facility — it is the single most important energy asset in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq complex. Its damage has cascading implications for Iranian domestic energy, regional LNG supply, and European gas markets that have not yet fully priced the strike. One of the developments taken from today update of "The Grand Chessboard" at recessionalert.com/grandchessboar…

JUST IN: Iran is reportedly now considering letting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if the oil onboard is traded in Chinese yuan rather than the U.S. dollar.

What just happened to Iran's Kharg Island? President Trump just said the US has carried out the "most powerful bombing raids in Middle East history" on Kharg island. This is a MAJOR escalation for oil markets. Here's why: Kharg Island has been described as the "crown jewel" of Iran's oil industry. It is a vital, tiny island in the northern Persian Gulf that manages ~90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Kharg Island alone handles ~2% of global oil supply. In the lead up to the war, Iran was exporting as much as 3 MILLION barrels of oil per day from Kharg Island. Trump said that the US military has "chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island" for now. However, President Trump also said he will reconsider this decision should Iran "do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz," which Iran is clearly doing right now. In other words, President Trump appears to be paving the path for the destruction of oil infrastructure on one of the world's most crucial oil ports and islands. It's no coincidence this came just 2 hours after markets closed for the weekend. Buckle up for a busy weekend ahead.