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🇦🇺Craig Tindale
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🇦🇺Craig Tindale
@ctindale
A few of my thoughts on hard-to-understand issues. The only reason I write is to help awaken everyone from their slumber.
Sydney, Australia Katılım Aralık 2008
2.5K Takip Edilen24.5K Takipçiler
You or I can’t compute all the variables in that. The idea that anyone can see the future with certainty sits in ideological thinking.
Civilisation didn’t collapse overnight. The economy has been hollowed out over decades through a focus on price efficiency, which pushed everything toward financialisation. Stability eroded as that model spread across sectors.
This isn’t about one person. It reflects a 30-year policy arc. Most of the economy has been financialised, and the outcome is now being attributed to a single figure.
That framing relies on a simple story of heroes and villains. The pattern is older and repeats across history. The structure produces the outcome not the people .
But you want to find the villain in the present not the system .
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@ctindale You completely miss my point. Net zero is not my concern here. My concern is that Trumpism is in power and speed-collapsing civilisation NOW. So yr civilisational concerns abt what net zero advocates may wish for in the future are absurdly blinkered.
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They are literally praying for the collapse of civilisation as a way to solve climate change .
Ben See@ClimateBen
A collapse of US imperialism with a major decline in fossil fuel use? Maybe. But models can't do clouds, aerosols, ice, or permafrost either. 2°C and rising is close. Solidarity!
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folk have gone mad. They want to blame an identity, indict the whole system, try it and sentence it. They want the civilisation they grew up in to fall. They run back-of-the-envelope math and call collapse a solution. You ignore how collapse actually plays out, you have no idea if for civilisation is net zero or nest or or carbon times 10 , who bears the cost, and how fast systems fail once trust and supply chains break. You reduce it to slogans, then act surprised when people reject it. Its virtue theatre reconciled to idiocy . It saves neither climate, humanity , their loved ones or themselves
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@ctindale Funny how reactionaries always focus on the ppl with no power & ignore the ppl with it:
Trumpism isn’t praying for, it’s literally collapsing civilisation as a way to solve the threat to fossil fuel profits and deny climate change.
2/
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@pendulumsinker western civilistion isnt a silly claim. Have you read any of my work? The entire world is on a precipice. If these galahs think they do any good for climate change, cause with their political radicalism, they are kidding themselves.
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@bagsNbagsNbags yes some kind of sequencing like that I think about it a lot
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@ctindale Distortions generated (resource supply/demand, job displacement, wealth concentration, social frictions) are of more consequence than 20th C ideological war between capitalism and socialism. Do we have, then, AI states (prob socialist) and nonAI states? A silicon curtain?
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The state, for all its flaws, is at least accountable to someone. It can be removed, rebuked, replaced. That is the basic bargain. If it misuses force, the recourse is political. You vote it out, you challenge it, you drag it back into line. That is how a society retains control over the machinery of power.
Now consider the inversion taking place. A private company like Anthropic begins to decide, in practice, what a state may or may not do with a capability it does not itself democratically answer for.
It is the quiet insertion of unelected authority into questions that were once settled, however imperfectly, in the public sphere.
And then comes the bloody sermon. Figures such as Dario Amodei speak in the language of restraint and responsibility, as if they were reluctant custodians of some dangerous fire.
Yet these same institutions are busily engaged in building systems designed to displace human labour at scale, to reorder industries, to render whole categories of work obsolete. Not only does he plan he crows about it.
We are asked to believe that this campaign to make humans obsolete is simply progress, while they have the gall to lecture the state on moral use of their product.
In the older world, if a contractor delivered an aircraft like the F-35, that was the end of the matter. The state flew it. The contractor did not hover over the cockpit, revising the controls or withholding the keys based on a change of sentiment. With AI, however, the control persists. Access can be throttled, behaviour altered, permission withdrawn. The supplier remains embedded in the act itself.
So what is dressed up as prudence begins to look rather like power without accountability. The state retains the burden of decision , national security and consequence, but the means of action sit behind a private curtain, subject to conditions that no electorate has ratified.
It is an attempt to rearrange where authority actually resides.
TheDarkForge@DarkForgeNews
[BREAKING] Pentagon Labels Anthropic Unacceptable National Security Risk Over AI Red Lines On March 17, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a 40-page court document in federal court in Northern California, calling Anthropic an "unacceptable" and "substantial" national security risk. The core issue: Anthropic's refusal to grant "any lawful use" access to its Claude models for military purposes, including blocking mass surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous lethal weapons. Anthropic had been working with the Pentagon on AI integration, including classified systems used in operations. CEO Dario Amodei drew firm lines—Claude cannot power mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous lethal weapons without human oversight. The Pentagon argues these self-imposed restrictions mean Anthropic could remotely sabotage or tamper with models during combat, prioritizing corporate policies over military needs. President Trump directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic technology immediately; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a six-month phaseout from existing systems. This escalates a standoff that began in February. On February 27, Hegseth labeled Anthropic a "supply-chain risk," barring contractors from using its services. The Pentagon demands "any lawful use" without caveats; Anthropic complies on intelligence analysis and planning but holds its red lines. Anthropic sued on March 9 to block the designation, claiming no evidence supports the Pentagon's sabotage fears; a preliminary injunction hearing is set for March 24. OpenAI, Google, and others are positioned as alternatives by the Pentagon; civil liberties groups support Anthropic. Attorney claims suggest Pentagon concerns are speculative, with no probe proving risks. Meanwhile, Meta's agentic AI efforts faced issues, including a March 18 incident where a rogue agent exposed sensitive data for two hours and a prior deletion of an email box. Anthropic, founded in 2021 by ex-OpenAI executives, incorporates ethics into Claude via policies limiting high-risk actions. Competitors like OpenAI agreed to the Pentagon's no-restrictions policy. Developers face fallout: the supply-chain ban affects any firm with defense contracts, forcing alternatives to Claude. Agentic AI—autonomous systems handling complex tasks—shows reliability gaps, as in Meta's incidents. Broader context ties to Trump-era defense AI acceleration. Partnerships with Microsoft, OpenAI, and others integrate models into missions, but Anthropic's stance tests private-sector leverage. The industry impact: U.S. AI-defense edge weakens if top firms resist; regulation debates intensify over surveillance and wartime flexibility. Hearing outcome decides if Anthropic's red lines survive. A Pentagon win sets precedent for total access; an Anthropic victory preserves ethics but risks blacklisting. — THE FORGE'S TAKE: Anthropic exposed the fragility of U.S. AI dominance—ethics clauses are fine until Beijing deploys unrestricted models in the Taiwan Strait. Meta's rogue agents prove autonomy scales risks exponentially; enterprises will demand kill switches before militaries do. Developers: pivot to compliant stacks now—DOD cash flows to OpenAI and xAI, not holdouts.
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@matt_barrie We couldn’t do that in Australia. We wouldn’t have the diesel to drive the truck to get the charcoal.
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Something like that - extreme wealth concentration forces a structural redesign of public equity. Human oversight must dictate the interaction between AI and society to navigate physical resource shortages in quantum elements and the urgent demographic demand for automated labour. It has to happen because of the constraints its form though is hard to predict
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@ctindale Is this not why AI becomes quasi and maybe completely nationalised ? Either that or all citizens become shareholders in the AI behemoths with voting rights
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@sahil_vi I have a long essay on India out in about a week that maps all vulnerabilities, options and realities.
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Usa is deploying 6 ships and ~5000 marines and they will arrive in west Asia next week. Until then a de-escalation narrative might be used to suck in even more retail liquidity but bibi netanyahu (or his ai avatar) already hinted at the land invasion of Iran which is coming
Investors & indian govt will do well to prepare accordingly for a long drawn war & the economic destabilization that results from this
news.usni.org/2026/03/18/3-s…
imef.marines.mil/Media-Room/Sto…
🇦🇺Craig Tindale@ctindale
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@Michelle_S0853 @ctindale Craig I've reported this account for impersonating you, in case you haven't already.
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Trump’s point is: why does it matter to the US what moves through the Strait? In a unipolar order, it matters; in a multipolar order, it doesn’t.
All this “petro-yuan” talk misses that Iran was never accepting USD anyway. India functions as a dependent state within China’s supply orbit, with a roughly 30-day munitions buffer and a heavy reliance on China for critical metals.
Projecting a clean outcome from here is misplaced. The US and China are tightly interdependent. It resembles conjoined twins trying to strangle each other. Narratives of either side “winning” collapse under that structure. The US can restrict Chinese oil flows; China can restrict US access to critical metals. Our conditioning teaches us to reduce everything to final narratives that suit our bias, in war, that is redundant thinking
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@ctindale The problem with this theory is that the US has not even attempt to enter the Gulf let alone control shipping through the strait.
Iran accepting payment in Yuan from Indian refineries supply resumes.
China and India might sail tankers through the straits while US watches?
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Maintain military presence and rapid response near Hormuz without guaranteeing protection to anyone .
Allow risk to raise costs and force dependent states to act.
Intervene selectively on terms that suit , shifting burden outward while retaining control over when and how stability is restored.
If Taiwan needs some LNG then help , if Europe needs some then don’t worry about it .
Leave the burden on the shoulders of those that care about it being open the most - India and China
Regular programming will resume in ……..
John Ʌ Konrad V@johnkonrad
Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong. We need to go back to the drawing boards. That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
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This is probably how a multi polar world works , it doesn’t stabilise like it used to do , you don’t even have stable areas in different blocs you have constant destabilisation . Everyone worries about themselves . Trump has the power to come in and disrupt Iran then leave it as it is . He’s demonstrating he can cause havoc , that’s a strategy , we may not like it but he may care less than others whether it’s open or not .
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@ctindale Any such U.S. military presence will be swiftly destroyed by endless attacks of Iranian missiles and drones..it’s unsustainable..any countries in the region supporting US military presence will be hit hard..it’s time for US to accept their time in Eurasia and West Pacific is over
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@StirlingSutton That what I just said - it’s not about whose in control, reality each step , nobodies in control . Trumps decided he’ll leave it blown up or keep blowing it all up and let the rest of the world worry about keeping it open .
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@jeremy1174 @Antipodean_AUS @FootnotesGuy Hence the RBAs decision to raise interest rates because our fuel prices went up
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@Antipodean_AUS @ctindale @FootnotesGuy The joke about the economist on the desert island saying ‘first, assume we have a can opener’ is soundly based in reality.
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Brilliant analysis by @FootnotesGuy on the idiocy that that is our government leadership . Every Australian should read this slowly .
Aidan Morrison@FootnotesGuy
The "National Interest Framework" re-read during a military clash over a crucial oil transport corridor reads like a bad comedy sketch. There's this perfectly serious and sensible logic about protecting critical supplies...Applied to all the wrong things. Solar panels and batteries. 🤨 Which we don't ever plan on producing, but might help mine critical minerals for, which we'll get China (and hopefully one day allies?) to process and manufacture into useful things. Then in the budget papers... we actually do want to manufacture those things. 🤦♂️ And then there's the whole premise that the entire world is moving towards net-zero, will pay whatever premium is required to do that, and that we have a massive potential competitive advantage there, but the government needs to support industry to get ahead of the economic bonanza. Things like Green Hydrogen. That has all aged like milk. Pure farce. A quick 🧵. 1/
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Entrained, then. Not governed, not persuaded, but conditioned. A class of administrators trained to mistake procedure for thought, compliance for judgment. Programmed by European technocrats who speak in the language of models and mandates, and echoed by political functionaries who confuse repetition with conviction. They move like machines through human consequences, insulated from the wreckage they author, fluent in policy yet illiterate in impact. Not villains in the grand sense, which would at least require intent, but something flatter: obedient systems dressed as leaders, carrying out instructions with the quiet confidence of those who never have to feel the cost.
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We are led by the sleepwalking professional politician , leaders we’ve never had a job and have grown up as ideologue political operatives in ministers offices and think tanks.
Matt Barrie@matt_barrie
Australia looks to be stuffed pretty quickly from energy mismanagement. Also has some good policy suggestions that need to be taken immediately. theconcernedobserver.substack.com/p/1018-days-un…
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@matt_barrie Maybe they’ll all drive EVs or ride share . Uber Infantry
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@ctindale You think you are smart but our ADF is half Papua New Guinean 🇵🇬 so the fuel costs are much lower! 🤡 🌍
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Simply put. Our entire ADF is a waste of money. All an adversary would have to do is cut our fuel supplies and wait till we surrender.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator
Tell me again how Australia is well prepared for a fuel crisis.... Chart is of oil and fuel stockpiles in days of supply by nation. Chart: Jonathan Kearns via Alex Joiner
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