🇦🇺Craig Tindale

Old enough to remember VW were going all in EV 100% , a skateboard concept , common drive train and batteries deck . . A Tesla killer strategy . They were entering the China market , about to clean up .

Yeah - I’ve crawled all over it . I bought much much lower so I’m less stressed . You know there’s a number of factors. I think the refresh rate on the AI chips are probably gonna be five times that everyone thinks they’re gonna be. It’s gonna have to take this we waste and coal / red mid recycling line and Indium are a smart mob as good as you get in material science and they want a 10 year relationship. The engineering quality is also good with Knight .

@ctindale Good stuff. Not necessarily related but have you seen this?: reddit.com/r/Metallium_Li… These guys are going to be huge in my opinion. Take care!

Stop calling them separate crises. Hormuz, Ukraine, Crimea, Taiwan, Philippines, Cuba, Korea, Venezuela, Lebanon “ theatres”. One war, a dozen theatres, and that’s only the geographic ones. Then let’s widen the frame to what the Chinese call it themselves “ unrestricted warfare” . That means war in any domain using any means . And then those domains become theatres too: cyber, chemicals, materials, tungsten, gallium. It’s doesn’t stop there either there are dozens of layers of interlocking complexity All interlocked in ways neither side has fully mapped. Pundits score it for one side or the other. Look closely and it’s fine-tuned and weighted on both. Because both sides are constantly looking for an “ exploit “ of the other . Go even deeper there is state AI working on rival exploit plans of the other . Gamify as a software game in your head . It’ll help you understand how to think about it . I often use the metaphor of conjoined twins choking each other , it’s supposed to infer the futility of human to human rivalry . That is to say ; the complexity between the nation states has got to the point where nobody can prevail but the conjoined twins continue to do so it’s more of a impulse that can’t be stopped.. Maybe I should’ve used the metaphor of millions of conjoined AI twins because we seem to be having rivalry on every field of conflict. All being simulated a billion times in AI Neither can destroy the other without wearing the consequences. And nobody can see the whole board. Not us. Probably not them. Each side is an iceberg to the other , and partly to itself. The balance doesn’t hold because both sides can see it’s balanced. It holds because neither can see enough to be sure it isn’t. Ambiguity is the restraint. That’s the great stand-off , stable exactly as long as nobody believes they can see the whole stage. Nobody knows for sure what’s really going on . Which is the irony because of our conditioning —— we have so many assuring us they know for sure . No they don’t that’s the irony the impulse to claim you do is the delusion. So let’s quote Field Marshall Blainey , great Aussie military thinkers don’t often get much of a run and Blainey was extremely competent . Also Blainey didn’t give a F , he just did him . They called him abrasive just because he thought most folk were tedious . We need more people who couldn’t care less about attention . “ peace is an unresolved measurement problem; war is what happens when the question gets answered” At the moment we have an “ unresolved measurement problem “ Let’s hope it stays that way .

Would PTJ have done well in another century ? . I know he’s famous for understanding the fiat macro trade and the asset inflation offshoring trade . But that’s not the trade any more. Now we have this fragile multi polar weaponised supply chain , maybe everything has to change and it’s not about the “ trade” anymore . There’s a deeper point here and I’m not sure the answer but the so-called free trade philosophy can be gamed , it’s good to optimise your returns but the maintenance of a cohesive state is ultimately the goal . It’s not Elon whose later French Revolution it s PTJ. Yes, he can tell us which way the wind is blowing, but that’s not what we need

@SteveBigpond @liminaluminal Yes literally hundreds / thousands prob

@ctindale @liminaluminal Agree The Great Game 21st century edition Covid was also another theatre

@sepp92522964 @aeberman12 @acidiclemon2 FFS you go on . I agree with you on Covid .

@ctindale @aeberman12 @acidiclemon2 What you climate grifters need to do is get the IPPC to announce that 97% of scientists agree: we scammed humanity and cost them trillions of dollars by our constant fear mongering. All the covid grifting doctors too. Science grifters have besmirched the reputation of "science"

I will post a comprehensive essay on climate change in a week--this was the trailer @acidiclemon2 The complexity is enormous & the climate & civilization systems are adaptive That doesn't mean a good outcome It means we should stop imaging the future & start understanding the present

@Tennkay1 Ha I did that era as well - Switzerland forest festivals , Glastonbury flown in by helicopter with a band , swimming in the castle moat at the Big Chill in Hereford , 7 Burning Man’s . I still prefer the 70s

@ctindale I'll take your 70's and toss up the late 90 - early 00's. Key upgrades: Nokia 3310 Festival food Cheap international travel Ecstasy Key downgrades: Sniffer dogs Emo's Bintang singlet wearers

The 70s probably the greatest fun ever had in human history - blessed to live through it youtu.be/-6ZGIBfSF-k?is…

@phl43 Neither of us have any idea we are 3 levels down on the Intel hierarchy stop pretend you know it’s perfectly ok not to know

I think the inability to understand this point stems from the fact that, as I often point out, people dismiss political constraints and talk as if they were somehow less real than physical/economic constraints, but they aren't. People find it absurd that the US can't defeat Iran because they have in mind a scenario where the resources that the US is committing to the war is only limited by what it's physically/economically able to do. Of course, in that case, things would almost certainly turn out very differently. But in practice the amount of resources that the US government can commit to the war is much more limited than that. At the end of the day, there just aren't enough people in the US who care so much about Iran that Trump would have enough support to commit the resources it would have to in order to overthrow the Iranian government, so he just won't do it because in a very real sense he can't. The only reason why he tried in the first place is that he underestimated how difficult and therefore costly it would be. It doesn't matter what the US could do in a world where those political constraints don't exist, because we don't live in that world. You can lament that more people don't share your obsession with Iran, and you may even be right about that (though you aren't), but it won't change the fact that in practice there aren't and this severely constrains what Trump can do realistically.

Cant win ffs ? - you have have zero idea about what can or can’t happen - neither do any of us - we are all 3 levels down in the Intel hierarchy yet some professes certainty derived exclusively from their own ego . Stop having yourself on and trust your own team . If X has existed when Pearl Harbour was around you’d be screaming surrender the Japanese have us . This war is existential now you “ can’t “ lose it .

@jamesericwebb Cool… well given we CANT win here… nobody cares.

There is simply no justification for the United States pushing through vessels along the Omani coastline in the Strait of Hormuz. You can cry and scream about "freedom of navigation", but at the end of the day, the Memorandum of Understanding was very clear that Iran would control the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the initial 60-day window. Time and time again, the United States has shredded the MOU by attempting to retroactively alter the terms because they didn't "like them". Of course you didn't like them. They suck... because you LOST. Oil sanction waivers a la Article 10? Torched. No new sanctions a la Article 9? Blown up. Iranian administration of traffic a la Article 5? Nope. You can whine all day long about how it's "wrong" for Iran to strike those vessels, but this is a rational response to a war of choice from the United States. You don't get to claim "right vs. wrong" when the Trump Administration is solely to blame for this situation in the first place. The Strait of Hormuz was open before this war started. The REASON that the United States was attempting an Operation Freedom 2.0 along the Omani Route was BECAUSE they were trying to actively undermine the Iranian control of the Strait. They were trying to actively push through enough vessels in a short enough period of time to shift the strategic landscape of the conflict. I have seen time and time again people claim, "Iran doesn't know what's best for them. If they just didn't strike vessels, they would get massive sanctions relief"... No, they wouldn't. Because President Trump and the United States had no INTENTION of sticking to the MOU. The goal was to use this 60-day window to shift the landscape so that they could topple the regime or secure outcomes they could not have in the initial MOU. This isn't "the US operating in good faith and those pesky Iranians messed everything up". This is the United States blatantly trying to unilaterally alter the terms of the MOU by shredded the oil waivers, sanctioning new entities, and pushing vessels through the Omani Route.

@adamscrabble What I loved about him was his timing . The ability to hit a chin instinctively with everything moving in chaos - those lefts on Jose & Chad - so fluid and loose

Ya, I’ll never forget how amazing and confident he once was. Changed the whole sport - suck fluid loose movement. Prior to him it was wrestlers who could box and boxers who could wrestle and alphamale chad mendes types - Tito Ortiz era and Chuck Liddell mini-me’s. There is no UFC without him.

@JonnyCapitalist @geofflangdale Certainly- more like a cartel structural .

@ctindale @geofflangdale That’s not a politically palatable or stable end game in any Western style adversarial democracies…most likely a transitory phase towards something much uglier..

Australia’s Democratic Demographic Lock-In Australia is not being gerrymandered with rigged boundaries. The AEC still draws maps on population. What Labor is doing is more efficient: demographic engineering through lawful policy. High-volume skilled migration (especially from India), new housing in growth corridors, and compulsory voting combine to tilt key marginal and suburban seats toward Labor for the long term. It’s a gerrymander work around to seize permanent power . India is now Australia’s largest migrant source and biggest overseas-born group. As of mid-2025 there were ~971,000 Indian-born residents , more than double a decade earlier. They settle in outer-suburban corridors where new housing is exploding: western Sydney (Parramatta, Riverstone) and outer Melbourne (Tarneit, Wyndham). These are exactly the swing and formerly conservative seats that decide government , Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, Aston. Polls show Indian-Australians lean Labor: 43-45% some up to 60% primary vote for the ALP versus 27-39% Coalition, with even higher two-party-preferred support in high-density areas. The pattern is unambiguous and accelerating because the incentives align with even more votes towards Labor . Let’s face it if you’re Indian it makes sense . Compulsory voting is the multiplier. Since 1924 Australia has required citizens to vote (90-95% turnout). In voluntary systems new migrant cohorts often abstain at first, blunting impact. Here, once naturalised (usually after four years), they vote. Their concentration in target seats facilitated by housing development approvals and planning converts directly into ballot-box weight with almost no lag. Preferential voting adds nuance, but the primary lean still favours Labor in these growth zones. This is textbook demographic engineering: deliberate population change to lock in political advantage. The starkest parallel is Vietnam’s post-1978 occupation of Cambodia. Hanoi encouraged Vietnamese settlement to create facts on the ground and secure control. Cambodian nationalists called it “Vietnamization” or colonisation. Australia’s version is softer and fully lawful , visa programs, housing supply, citizenship pathways , but the logic is identical: change the people, change the power balance. Lawful does not mean benign. The policy settings are public, the settlement trends are in the census, the voting lean is in the polls. Yet when a government selects high migration from cohorts that lean its way and settles them in the precise electorates it needs, the result is power consolidation through population replacement. Compulsory voting removes the one natural brake (abstention) that exists elsewhere. Voters are pushing back. Housing strain and infrastructure pressure forced Labor to slash net overseas migration from its post-COVID peak. The electorate still decides , but only if it understands the mechanism. Demographic engineering for electoral advantage is real, transparent, and effective. Australia’s system makes it unusually potent. The debate should be equally direct. This is what Labor refers to as “ multiculturalism” , population replacement to achieve permanent electoral control and that’s why they call you a racist if you want to talk about it because they have to put it in place as quickly as possible to achieve success . Even the ABC “Insiders” acknowledge it now . When @matt_barrie first raised it a few years it was considered a conspiracy theory . Turns out he was right from the beginning . Now it’s mainstream political discussion .

@SteveBigpond @GeorgeFruk @AaloAtomics Elon & Jenson have a killer move that China can’t match

@ctindale @GeorgeFruk The west has lost its way thru complacency. There is a lot of momentum going down the wrong path, and it will not be an easy way back. But China has enormous demographic challenges ahead. This ain’t over. Innovation like @AaloAtomics gives me hope.

The scoreboard shows the present, yet we mistake it for destiny, as if evolution were a game where one nation wins and another loses.. Griffin’s billionaire badge is not foresight. Humanity is on both sides. Wang understands it’s not over by a long shot . Elon is right not many folk understand what the x10 per annum compounding of compute per watt means to all of humanity .

It’s deflationary - a form hyper stagflation where asset fall in value but shortages cause supply side inflation that is hard to solve -watt cost of intelligence falls by 1000% compound per annum - aging demographics accelerates but all that assets depreciate - most of the asset are concentrated in +55y and there are less young folk to consume- less tax receipts limit govt spending so they tax everyone more - it’s a new era - even the wealthy folk get much poorer

@geofflangdale @ctindale How do we avoid the inevitable inflationary spiral associated with easy asset-debts finance and diminishing productive skilled labour force/capacity? Import skilled labour(India/China)and offshore industries for more affordable cost of living(mostly rely on China)..or bubble pops

@Eachwayjasetoo @VoteNo_01 @DHughesy @CraigHill01 And that’s fair enough but isn’t it a classic that the politicians talk to him . His entire resume is made up .

@VoteNo_01 @ctindale @DHughesy @CraigHill01 Craig genuinely does have mental illnesses. Probably has a personal collection of them. Even used it as an excuse in his recent court case with Drew Pavlou. His accusation towards Hughesy is just him looking at the mirror.

Look at this exchange and you’ll see the Moral Translation force I talk about in this essay and many other operating in real time. Craig Hill gets a critique from @dhughesy rooted in material reality, tax settings, property investment, the everyday pressures squeezing families trying to buy a home or keep the lights on, and what does he do? He doesn’t engage the substance. He doesn’t offer numbers, lived experience, or policy outcomes. Instead he translates it instantly into moral failure: “personal attacks against people you know nothing about,” “try to do better,” “this is not humour,” and a condescending offer of a mental-health chat thrown in for good measure. Notice the process Material complaint goes in. Moral verdict and character lecture come out. This is the mechanism I described. The governing class and its propagandists live separated from the consequences they help create, then use moral language to police anyone who notices. The real strain on ordinary Australians, housing costs, bills, service collapse, disappears behind accusations of bad character or insufficient virtue. Once you see the pattern, you see it everywhere. The debate is never joined on the ground where people actually live. It is moved to the courtroom of false moral decency, where the critic is put on trial , denounced and the system walks free. That’s how the squeeze is maintained. x.com/ctindale/statu…

@TerryAnder8503 @DHughesy He’s a 30 year scammer he’s on NDIS for mental disorders. and now interviews politicians on his own podcast it’s symptomatic of where we are in Australia craighillchinadailymail.blogspot.com/2013/04/hello-…

@ctindale @DHughesy LOL......

It’s actually a lot more interesting than that and I guess appropriate for our era . Research is my thing . He’s an NDIS receiver . On different posts he claims to be autistic , a PTSD sufferer and schizophrenic caused by a hostage situation when he was teaching at Goulburn and sometimes Townsville prison , he claims to have been a prison officer but he’s reason for leaving I’d dubious Yet here he is interviewing our politicians I let loose Fable 5 on him 143 public claims 123 unprovable - false able because times and dates don’t match up or just simply false He’s a long term notorious scammer claiming to be many things he’s not craighillchinadailymail.blogspot.com/2013/04/hello-…

@ctindale @DHughesy What a flog @CraigHill01 is here. He throws down the accusation of mental illness at @DHughesy then when challenged he plays his own fragile mental health PTSD card. Wants to have it both ways

@TerryAnder8503 @DHughesy He blocked me :)

@ctindale @DHughesy Great response Craig. One thing about you, you bring the data first.