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I've been thinking about artificial intelligence and the job market a lot recently, so I wrote a piece on what I see as the most immediate economic threat posed by generative AI (and it's not automation).
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Jack Meyer 🏛️
13.3K posts
Jack Meyer 🏛️
@Jackbmeyer
Economist. Researching Institutions, Intellectual Property, Innovation, and Inequality. MPhil Student, on leave from @OxfordEconDept, MSc @LseEcHist (RT!=E)
Vermont/Oxford Inscrit le Mart 2015
991 Abonnements18.9K Abonnés
If academics play the moment right, the R v Python wars could be a thing of the past. We’ll need that energy for the Claude v ChatGPT wars
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There's something encouraging about the fact that the pace and uncertainty around technological improvement has stripped away the financial motivation behind what you might decide to study. Your safest bet is to simply pursue what interests you
Kevin Xu@kevinxu
friend’s kid asked what they should major in college i almost cried what do you even say anymore
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@BeatrizGietner @StefanFSchubert Last time they let the dual-mandate pendulum swing in favor of running the economy hot if it meant keeping up employment. I fear if the next chair is an inflation hawk, this outcome might not be out of the question
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I’ve been warned that prospective employers might be looking at my social media. Unrelated, but I just wanted to express how passionate I am about conducting rigorous data-driven analysis, developing reproducible workflows, and translating research for non-technical stakeholders
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Despite their best efforts, AI detection software still seems prone to false positives. Checking on my work through the editing process, I’ve found human revisions can increase the confidence that a text is AI generated, but maybe that’s just a feature of economic writing
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Jack Meyer 🏛️ retweeté
Many of us are trying to figure out where the AI labor market transition may be going. But that's fundamentally unknowable. So instead of trying to predict the future we can instead look back to try to figure out what may be coming...by reading 19th c english literature 1/
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Jack Meyer 🏛️ retweeté
a trillion dollars spent on ai risk teams and no one thought to hard code into the model to not tell Bernie Sanders that you do crime
Sen. Bernie Sanders@SenSanders
I spoke to Anthropic’s AI agent Claude about AI collecting massive amounts of personal data and how that information is being used to violate our privacy rights. What an AI agent says about the dangers of AI is shocking and should wake us up.
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We're still only at the outset of this shock, but over the next few months are going to realize the fiscal consequences in our already strained state and local budgets
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At the start of the year I worked with a legislator on indexing senior meal delivery funding to match regional inflation and get a better sense of expected annual cost increases. Needless to say, relatively low gas prices were the only thing keeping the program budget in check...
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Jack Meyer 🏛️ retweeté
To sum up: this is now officially a macro shock that will be felt across multiple commodities and sectors. It will raise the average oil price band for the year $15-20 higher than where it was in February. Same (or worse) for natural gas prices. It will show up in CPI. It will move CB policy (it may have already).
But it's also a strategic earthquake. Old assumptions will be tossed out the window. Uncertainty will reign. Hedging will be the order of the day.
Old world dead. New worlds struggle to be born. Watch out for monsters (and missiles).
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“This easy,” you say. Really? Easy for who, exactly? What are we looking at here, an outfit? So called “prep propaganda”? And who is being propagandized to? The American people? You have to ask yourself, what’s really going on here?
Prep Propaganda 👔@prep_propaganda
It’s literally this easy
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For those wondering why public economic sentiment continues to deteriorate despite rising material living conditions:
Brooks Otterlake@i_zzzzzz
I love goods. But sometimes services just hit
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Any push for nuclear at the expense of renewables investment is a bit strange given the largest barrier in most regions, at least in the US, is still unit economics
night brain@_night_brain__
I get that gas and nuclear are epic and based, but Growth and Progress-oriented individuals might discuss accelerating renewables deployment, if that's not too passé
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@tonyannett In spite of increasingly fragmented international trade oil deliberately remains one of the most liquid commodity markets. Domestic production capacity really isn't much of a buffer against a global price shock
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This is completely ass backwards.
First of all, oil is traded in global markets and has a global price.
Second, gas markets are more segmented - cheap in US, expensive in Europe. Because of reliance on Russia!
It’s renewables that will save Europe from the tyranny of Putin.
Michael A. Arouet@MichaelAArouet
The US is energy independent. It can do whatever it wants Europe sacrificed its economy, relevance, and foremost geopolitical security at the altar of the green religion. It will get really nasty now. Don't blame Trump, you did it to yourself. Blame your left-green politicians.
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Jack Meyer 🏛️ retweeté
Jack Meyer 🏛️ retweeté
Economists making their articles less readable as a way to signal they are not AI-generated is perfectly on brand. Incentives matter.
Soumaya Keynes@SoumayaKeynes
…but on a couple of readability indices, they became harder to read! Suggesting that word complexity has risen. This is, uh, not what I would expect from AI. But I can’t think of what else might have generated the shift below…
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"In this paper we estimate the causal effect of national language on life satisfaction, identifying the 2025 Canadian federal election as a plausibly exogenous shock to the primary language spoken by the head of government"
Stefan Schubert@StefanFSchubert
The English-speaking world is falling in rankings of life satisfaction (The Economist)
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I know it's surprising but I'm going to make the controversial claim that funding outlook is not great right now
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Disheartening to think that on several running projects I've probably spent more time applying for funding than actually working on the research
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