@KobeissiLetter everyone says diversification is important.
then a new theme appears and suddenly capital piles into the same trade.
right now that trade is ai.
everything else is competing for leftovers
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Market Memory
429 posts
Market Memory
@MarketMemory_1
gm, we trying to invest. explaining stocks, markets, & price moves in simple ways that makes sense. just finance notes you can chat about over coffee
Denver, CO Inscrit le Mart 2015
88 Abonnements138 Abonnés
Chinese investors are dumping Hong Kong stocks at a record pace:
Hong Kong equity ETFs listed in China posted a record -$3.7 billion in outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow on record.
This marks the 5th consecutive weekly outflow and the 10th over the last 12 weeks.
By comparison, Hong Kong stock ETFs saw 11 weekly outflows during the entire 2025.
Capital is rotating into China-listed semiconductor and AI-linked stocks, which investors view as more direct beneficiaries of the AI boom.
Even a +10% surge in Tencent on Tuesday failed to stop the outflows, with mainland Chinese investors using the rally as an opportunity to exit ~$268 million worth of its shares during the same day.
Chinese investors are turning away from Hong Kong.
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@Kalshi a lot of people confuse forecasts with facts.
the market has a funny habit of humiliating both bulls and bears right when they're most confident.
that's why risk management matters more than predictions.
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@Barchart the average person probably has no idea the treasury can buy back its own debt.
the average investor probably doesn't realize how important debt market liquidity is.
boring markets move the world
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JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury completes buyback $12.5 Billion of their own debt 🤯👀
Barchart@Barchart
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury projected to buy back $12.5 Billion of their own debt this week 🤯👀
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@StockMKTNewz one of my favorite finance tricks:
convert giant numbers into companies.
suddenly "$350 billion" stops sounding abstract.
that's a netflix-sized move
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For anyone curious
$350 Billion is equivalent to the market cap of Netflix $NFLX
VanquishTrader@VanquishTrader
$AVGO JUST LOST $350B IN MARKET CAP
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@PolymarketMoney that's basically a bet on the next industrial revolution
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The U.S. and Japan are launching a $1B push across AI, quantum, fusion and biotech.
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strategic infrastructure changes how capital gets deployed.
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇯🇵 US and Japan announce $1,000,000,000 partnership to advance AI, quantum computing, fusion energy, and biotechnology.
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@WatcherGuru a lot of people still view ai as another software boom.
governments are treating it more like electricity, semiconductors, or the internet.
strategic infrastructure changes how capital gets deployed.
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇯🇵 US and Japan announce $1,000,000,000 partnership to advance AI, quantum computing, fusion energy, and biotechnology.
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@BullTheoryio $680 billion in five hours.
that's more value created than the entire stock market of many countries.
sometimes the biggest reminder that markets are emotional comes from the numbers themselves
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THIS IS INSANE.
S&P 500 is now up +1.03% from day lows and has added $680 billion to its market cap in just the last 5 hours.
It is now just 0.37% away from its all-time high.
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio
$400 BILLION has been added to the US stock market in last 1 hour as the S&P 500 rebounds +0.55% from intraday lows.
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@BullTheoryio if these allegations are true, this isn't a bad quarter.
it's a reminder that revenue is one of the most dangerous numbers in finance.
everyone looks at it.
almost nobody asks how it was generated.
the biggest risks are usually hiding in plain sight.
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🚨 INDIA MAY HAVE JUST WITNESSED ONE OF ITS BIGGEST ACCOUNTING FRAUDS EVER.
SEBI alleges that Rajesh Exports, one of India's most well known gold companies and a Fortune Global 500 firm, faked $158 billion in revenue, 99.8% of everything it ever claimed to earn over the last 5 years.
Rajesh Exports owns a Swiss gold refiner called Valcambi SA through overseas subsidiaries.
The parent company booked the full value of refined gold as its own revenue, even though it never owned the gold. It only held it temporarily for refining on behalf of customers.
Valcambi's own audited financials show it generated less than 0.5% of what Rajesh Exports was claiming as group revenue.
When SEBI asked for subsidiary financial records, Rajesh Exports repeatedly refused, citing Swiss privacy laws. SEBI is legally authorised under those same laws to request the records.
SEBI also found $1.3 billion in recorded transactions with a firm called Affluence Shares and Stocks.
Affluence told SEBI directly that Rajesh Exports was never its client, no agreement existed, and no trades were ever executed.
SEBI alleged those entries were fabricated to match gold derivative trades the owner was running through his personal account using company funds transferred without board approval.
Owner Rajesh Mehta has been banned from all securities market activity and a forensic audit has been ordered.
LIC, India's largest state insurer, owns 10.8% of the company.
The company has denied all charges and plans to contest the order.
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quick investing note before markets open —
SpaceX IPO is coming eventually and everyone's going to lose their mind when it does
just remember: the data on IPOs is rough. most go flat or lower for years after listing. the outliers that moon are rare, and they skew the averages in a way that makes IPOs look better than they are
the move is usually to watch the first few weeks, let the hype settle, and buy when everyone's bored of talking about it
the best time to buy an IPO usually isn't the IPO
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$500 billion gone. $250 billion back. market closes slightly red off a record high.
the S&P was at 7,566 mid-session. the indexes hit all-time highs yesterday.
we live in a market that can lose half a trillion dollars before lunch and the headline by close is "stocks slip on geopolitical tensions."
completely normal
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U.S STOCK MARKET TODAY
S&P 500 dumped 0.61% immediately after market open and wiped out $500 billion in just 18 minutes.
Then it recovered 0.21% in the next 25 minutes and added $250 billion to its market cap.
It is currently up 0.20% from the day lows.
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio
🚨 BIG CRASH IN US STOCKS. Over $500 BILLION has been wiped out from the US stock market in just 20 minutes as markets started dumping immediately after open.
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America is spending more building AI infrastructure than building roads, airports, and mass transit combined
data centers just outpaced all public transportation construction spending for the first time ever.
politicians have been arguing about infrastructure bills for decades. big tech just built a different country underneath everyone's feet
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BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +28% YoY in April, to a record annualized rate of $50.7 billion.
At the same time, public spending on transportation came in at $49.9 billion.
This means data center construction spending has outpaced government transportation spending for the first time in history.
Since 2022, spending on data centers has surged by +357%.
Over the same period, government spending on transportation has increased +16%.
As a result, data centers now account for 2.3% of all US construction spending.
The AI buildout is reshaping US infrastructure spending.
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@ToonHive the industry isn't losing money because the technology doesn't work.
it's losing money because nobody's figured out how to charge enough for something everyone now thinks should be free
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The AI industry has reportedly spent $1.4 TRILLION while generating just $613 BILLION in revenue, meaning it is still not profitable.
According to isaiprofitable.com, Nvidia is the only major AI company currently operating at a profit.
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@BullTheoryio Michael Saylor didn't just build a company.
he built a machine powered by belief.
and belief is incredibly powerful right up until the moment it's tested.
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🚨 SOMETHING MIGHT HAVE BROKEN INSIDE MICHAEL SAYLOR’S BITCOIN MACHINE.
$STRC was designed to stay near $100 forever. Strategy launched it in July 2025, raised $2.5 BILLION from investors, and used that money to buy more Bitcoin.
In return, investors got an 11.5% yearly yield paid monthly in cash.
The entire structure depended on one thing: keep the price near $100.
If STRC dropped below $100, Strategy could raise the dividend to attract buyers back. That is why STRC stayed stable for months.
Now the system is cracking and STRC just dropped to $94.84.
But Why?
Three things hit at the same time
• Bitcoin dumped toward $67K
• Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in 4 years
• Investors are now questioning how sustainable the dividends really are
The company sold 32 BTC worth $2.5 MILLION specifically to help fund STRC dividend payments.
That may sound small. But it completely breaks the never sell Bitcoin narrative Saylor built for years.
Markets are now pricing in the possibility that Strategy may eventually need to sell more BTC to support nearly $1.7 BILLION in yearly preferred dividend obligations.
At the same time, Strategy refused to raise the STRC dividend above 11.5% for the fourth straight month even as competitors started offering higher yields.
Strive is now offering 13% on a competing product. The entire trade now depends on one thing:
Bitcoin going higher.
Because if BTC keeps falling, pressure on the entire Strategy structure starts rising very fast.
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Gemini doubled from 400M to 900M monthly users in a year.
everyone talks about model quality.
almost nobody talks about distribution.
Google already owns Android, Search, Gmail, Chrome, Maps, and YouTube.
now imagine Gemini embedded across all of it.
ChatGPT won the opening round.
the distribution battle is just getting started.
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$GOOGL says Gemini now has 900M+ monthly active users, up 400M from a year ago while paid subscribers have reached 350M.
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@cryptorover Dalio's exact words: "the pricking is the converting of wealth into money."
translation: the bubble doesn't pop when people get scared. it pops when people try to get paid
paper gains are fine until someone actually tries to leave. then everyone tries to leave.
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🚨 RAY DALIO IS WARNING THAT AI STOCKS ARE STARTING TO LOOK LIKE 1999 AGAIN.
The founder of Bridgewater said today’s AI boom is showing classic bubble behavior:
• extreme valuations
• aggressive speculation
• huge debt-funded spending
• and stock prices rising much faster than actual cash flow
His biggest warning was this:
“The pricking is the converting of wealth into money.”
Meaning the moment investors start trying to cash out, the entire AI trade can collapse very fast.
Dalio said this is exactly how every major technology bubble works.
Companies are now spending enormous amounts of money just to avoid losing AI market share.
That is the same thing internet companies did before the 2000 crash.
Meanwhile the numbers are becoming extreme:
• AI-related capex for 2026 is projected around $527 BILLION
• AI startups raised $202 BILLION in 2025 alone
• Nvidia and AI chipmakers became the most crowded trade on Wall Street
• Big Tech companies are massively increasing debt and spending to build AI infrastructure
• Credit risks on major AI companies have already started rising
Even Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently promoted the “insane” returns investors made from betting on AI.
Dalio is not saying AI is fake.
He called it a “wonderful technology.”
But the internet was also a real technology in 2000.
The technology survived.
Most of the stocks did not.
The current AI boom is starting to look dangerously similar:
• record optimism
• massive leverage
• runaway spending
• and valuations pricing years of perfect growth in advance
If AI profits fail to catch up with the spending, this market could face a massive valuation reset.
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@MarketMemory_1 Perfect. Goes to show where the economic power truly is: in America.
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honest take: will AI capex pay off for the companies spending billions?
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the AI race isn't being driven by certainty.
it's being driven by the cost of being wrong.
if AI becomes as important as its biggest believers think, underinvesting could be fatal.
so everyone spends.
not because they know they'll win.
because they can't afford the possibility that someone else does.
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I don’t think we have ever seen a capital race of this scale before. We have multiple trillion dollar companies spending like the world will end tomorrow if they don’t win this race
They don’t even know what the ROI might look like. They have no idea whether this is even a winner take all market, or not. They just know that they must spend. There is no alternative but to spend
They will obliterate every last dollar of free cash flow. They will take on whatever amount of debt is needed. They will stop every last cent of stock buybacks and dilute their shareholders to oblivion
It is all hands on deck to see who can build super intelligence the fastest. Cost discipline will get thrown out of the question. The amount of dollars that will flow around the economy just from these companies alone are mind boggling
In the process, many new trillion dollar companies are being created. Many new millionaires minted. Many fortunes being exchanged
Truly amazing to watch
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