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@MrFixedIncome

Oil and Gas analyst moonlighting as a crypto “professional”

Inscrit le Mayıs 2018
738 Abonnements2.5K Abonnés
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
This meme was just a year and a half too early
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@JamrockHobo Planescape Torment… which I am sure most Disco Elysium fans have played
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Jamrock Hobo
Jamrock Hobo@JamrockHobo·
Sacred and Terrible Air... which I'm sure most Disco Elysium fans read...
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
> new ai paper saying ai sucks > models from 2 years ago > like clockwork
Nav Toor@heynavtoor

🚨SHOCKING: Apple just proved that AI models cannot do math. Not advanced math. Grade school math. The kind a 10-year-old solves. And the way they proved it is devastating. Apple researchers took the most popular math benchmark in AI — GSM8K, a set of grade-school math problems — and made one change. They swapped the numbers. Same problem. Same logic. Same steps. Different numbers. Every model's performance dropped. Every single one. 25 state-of-the-art models tested. But that wasn't the real experiment. The real experiment broke everything. They added one sentence to a math problem. One sentence that is completely irrelevant to the answer. It has nothing to do with the math. A human would read it and ignore it instantly. Here's the actual example from the paper: "Oliver picks 44 kiwis on Friday. Then he picks 58 kiwis on Saturday. On Sunday, he picks double the number of kiwis he did on Friday, but five of them were a bit smaller than average. How many kiwis does Oliver have?" The correct answer is 190. The size of the kiwis has nothing to do with the count. A 10-year-old would ignore "five of them were a bit smaller" because it's obviously irrelevant. It doesn't change how many kiwis there are. But o1-mini, OpenAI's reasoning model, subtracted 5. It got 185. Llama did the same thing. Subtracted 5. Got 185. They didn't reason through the problem. They saw the number 5, saw a sentence that sounded like it mattered, and blindly turned it into a subtraction. The models do not understand what subtraction means. They see a pattern that looks like subtraction and apply it. That is all. Apple tested this across all models. They call the dataset "GSM-NoOp" — as in, the added clause is a no-operation. It does nothing. It changes nothing. The results are catastrophic. Phi-3-mini dropped over 65%. More than half of its "math ability" vanished from one irrelevant sentence. GPT-4o dropped from 94.9% to 63.1%. o1-mini dropped from 94.5% to 66.0%. o1-preview, OpenAI's most advanced reasoning model at the time, dropped from 92.7% to 77.4%. Even giving the models 8 examples of the exact same question beforehand, with the correct solution shown each time, barely helped. The models still fell for the irrelevant clause. This means it's not a prompting problem. It's not a context problem. It's structural. The Apple researchers also found that models convert words into math operations without understanding what those words mean. They see the word "discount" and multiply. They see a number near the word "smaller" and subtract. Regardless of whether it makes any sense. The paper's exact words: "current LLMs are not capable of genuine logical reasoning; instead, they attempt to replicate the reasoning steps observed in their training data." And: "LLMs likely perform a form of probabilistic pattern-matching and searching to find closest seen data during training without proper understanding of concepts." They also tested what happens when you increase the number of steps in a problem. Performance didn't just decrease. The rate of decrease accelerated. Adding two extra clauses to a problem dropped Gemma2-9b from 84.4% to 41.8%. Phi-3.5-mini from 87.6% to 44.8%. The more thinking required, the more the models collapse. A real reasoner would slow down and work through it. These models don't slow down. They pattern-match. And when the pattern becomes complex enough, they crash. This paper was published at ICLR 2025, one of the most prestigious AI conferences in the world. You are using AI to help you make financial decisions. To check legal documents. To solve problems at work. To help your children with homework. And Apple just proved that the AI is not thinking about any of it. It is pattern matching. And the moment something unexpected shows up in your question, it breaks. It does not tell you it broke. It just quietly gives you the wrong answer with full confidence.

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Mini Modu
Mini Modu@MinModulation·
Resident Evil...Which I'm sure most Resident Evil fans have played...
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@meatballtimes There will be no mass unemployment. You only assume so because you cannot imagine what jobs will be created from freeing up human capital via automation. The jobs of tomorrow will be unimaginable to the jobs of today, but there will still be abundant jobs
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meatball times@meatballtimes·
Governments won't take action on AI unemployment until the riots start. I am optimistic long term, but I see no way to convince governments to prepare. At the worst of the great depression unemployment was 25%. That will seem mild compared to what's coming
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FleetingBits@fleetingbits

@boazbaraktcs i think it is a mistake to think that there ever can be societal readiness for a disruptive technology before the disruptive effects are felt. governments can move very fast in a short time when faced with an obvious effect (e.g. 2008, covid) but not otherwise.

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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@BullyEsq This guy has been in the foreign ministry for 30 years
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@Tophmilio I know. I just reconnected with him 2 months ago and we shared a brief dm exchange. I don’t know what happened.
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
Rest in peace yv
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roycedefi9
roycedefi9@btc_borghini·
damn Rest In Peace YV. 😔
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@midascabal Moron. This is an etf of us oil companies. You are looking for CL
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Midas@midascabal·
Oil is now at $112. Good luck bulls. Many do not understand what is coming.
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cool man 🜂
cool man 🜂@coolpatiens·
correct me if im missing something: these Iranian "launchers" are really just what like, a truck with a pneumatic lifter to vertical the missile?
cool man 🜂 tweet mediacool man 🜂 tweet media
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@formershell 4gb of extra ram just to have mumbaisoft break notepad and try to sell you shit in the settings app
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@LRH_Superfan Not just any Chinese dude. Chiang Kai-Shek
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Chairman@LRH_Superfan·
The airforce got a Chinese dude chained up ready to blow up Iran?
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

.@SecRubio: "We're going to unleash Chang on these people in the next few hours and days. You're going to really begin to perceive a change in the scope and intensity of these attacks as, frankly, the two most powerful air forces in the world take apart this terroristic regime."

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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@fuckyourputs Dude has been shit talking Fani Willis and endorsing candidates in between taunting Iran and providing war updates
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@fitnessfeelingz So you’re saying we should’ve sacrificed thousands of US troops in our bases to get a casus belli we didn’t need? After we bombed Natanz and Ifsahan the last time there is no way Iran would hold out on us after getting pelted by Israel again
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MyFitnessFeelings
MyFitnessFeelings@fitnessfeelingz·
Why not let Israel attack first, alone, wait for Iran to lash out at us unprovoked, then use Iran's own DoW against us as a casus belli? Something is very off here & I haven't seen anyone point it out.
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
@StevenGlinert Europe is willing to drop the international law schtick when we do something that benefits them in various ways.
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emissary@MrFixedIncome·
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