Pythia, the Oracle

This is absolutely insane: US oil futures are now on track to rise +60% this month, marking their largest monthly gain in history. This follows the +34.5% gain recorded last week, the largest weekly gain on record in data going back to 1982. We are all witnessing history.

japan can’t absorb this. every dollar higher in crude is a direct tax on their entire economy. energy costs spike, import bills explode, the trade deficit widens, and the yen weakens further, which makes the energy imports even MORE expensive. it’s a doom loop. weak yen makes oil more expensive in yen terms, which worsens the trade deficit, which weakens the yen further. if oil stays above $90 and the Strait stays shut, the BoJ has to choose between defending the yen (hike rates, blow up the JGB market and the carry trade) or letting it crash (import costs spiral, inflation rips through the economy).

もう我慢ならん。イスラム教まるっと禁教にしたい。 じゃなきゃ日本を守れん。

None of this feels organic. Truth, I fear, is shrouded in shadow and flame at the moment. Genuinely seems like a desperate assault on collective human morality. As always, the only way out is through.