Quartz Sea Research

Return on capital in European chemicals: lowest point in 25+ years. Operating rates at 70%, far below the 81.3% historically required for margin sustainability. Structural issue. Read our primer 👇 quartz-sea.com/primer-the-eur…

Three scenarios for 2026: 1) Baseline (0.9% growth, 2.6% inflation). 2) Adverse (near-zero growth, 3.5% inflation). 3) Severe (recession, 6% inflation). The Eurozone is tracking toward adverse. quartz-sea.com/to-hike-or-not…

Coming up next week: the Initiating Coverage report of Colt CZ Group, a mid-cap with potential to soon become a key player in the defense space. 8k words, all models included: subscribers will receive it straight to their inboxes. Not in the list yet? Click the link in bio.

Our European Chemical Sovereignty Score, a proprietary index designed to track the structural bifurcation of the European chemical sector, is vastly outperforming the STOXX 600 Chemicals. Primer below: subscribe to get the next ones early (link in bio)

Defense spending booms are large and persistent: 60% real outlay increases within three years of onset, averaging ~2% of GDP. The buildup hits military equipment hardest, but personnel and operating expenses scale alongside it. Read our report: quartz-sea.com/the-global-war…

No wonder defense is the hottest sector right now

Eurenco secured a €300mn syndicated loan, the largest financing of its kind for a defense chemical, to build a new MACS plant in Slovakia. Online 2028. Output: several hundred thousand artillery charge units annually. Read our primer 👇

European natural gas prices: 2.5x to 3.0x higher than the US. Ethylene production in Europe: costs 3.2x more than North America. Ammonia production: 3.5x to 4.0x cost multiplier. The energy gap isn't closable.

This development can't be understated: whether this leads to de-escalation or reinforces strategic autonomy, the implications for defense budgets and sovereign capability buildouts are very significant. Hypothetically, given the 2030 NATO target is €635bn (3.5% GDP): - De-escalation: slower growth, still reaching €550-600bn by 2030 (procurement commitments already locked in) - Strategic autonomy: business as usual, we surpass the target (our baseline projects 5%)

Sweden’s NATO integration has shattered the political glass ceiling: this means unprecedented access to high-growth procurement markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Read our report: quartz-sea.com/the-scaling-of… @Saab

QuartzSea Research initiates coverage on SAAB AB (SAAB.B-SE) 🔹Rating: Outperform 🔹Target: SEK 602.61 Full report available here 👉 quartz-sea.com/the-scaling-of… @Saab

@wartranslated 2.8m drones at €2k each = €5.6bn in FPV drone procurement alone: that's roughly 233k units per month through EOY, well above current European production capacity. Long Saab? We think so We recently mapped the European missiles/UAVs ecosystem 👇 quartz-sea.com/the-european-i…

Around €30 billion from the EU's €90 billion loan for Ukrainian forces in 2026 will go to drones, ammunition, missiles including long-range, and air defense systems per Evropeyska Pravda sources. The first batch will buy 2.8 million drones at roughly €2,000 each.

Last week, the ECB held rates at 2.0%. Lagarde called it "informed but based on insufficient information", but the truth is that raising rates can't produce oil or clear chokepoints. But it can worsen growth further. quartz-sea.com/to-hike-or-not…

The European missile sector: consolidated, high-volume, scaling fast. The UAV sector: fragmented, experimental, software-intensive. Two distinct industrial logistics, but shared supply chains. quartz-sea.com/the-european-i…

Germany's defense spending in Jan–Feb 2026 vs 2025: +43.2% Total government spending growth: +5.2% Defense is growing 8x faster than the rest of the budget. This isn't a one-time adjustment: it's a permanent shift in the German budgetary psyche. quartz-sea.com/the-global-war…

The ECB is trapped in a poetic position: inflation surging because goods can't move, the economy stalling because consumers can't buy. And raising rates won't clear the Strait of Hormuz. quartz-sea.com/to-hike-or-not…

Return on capital in European chemicals: lowest point in 25+ years. Operating rates at 70%, far below the 81.3% historically required for margin sustainability. Structural issue. Read our primer 👇 quartz-sea.com/primer-the-eur…

@grindingmacro Absolutely, it has been added to the queue. Ideally, covered by EOM