
grindingmacro
1.6K posts

grindingmacro
@grindingmacro
Philosophy, literature, war.






1/11 $PRZO — Israeli counter-drone micro-cap that it is still quite unknown but which numbers improved notably. Forward EV/Sales (FY26E): $PRZO 1.3-2.3× ($17M) $RCAT ~20× ($1.5B) $UMAC ~30× ($700M) $DRO.AX ~10× ($2.2B) $KTOS ~10× ($17B) A short thread on this company.




1/11 $PRZO — Israeli counter-drone micro-cap that it is still quite unknown but which numbers improved notably. Forward EV/Sales (FY26E): $PRZO 1.3-2.3× ($17M) $RCAT ~20× ($1.5B) $UMAC ~30× ($700M) $DRO.AX ~10× ($2.2B) $KTOS ~10× ($17B) A short thread on this company.

















Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking. Aggregate TAM would increase 9x: From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B. What the actual? Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging). This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.


Ouster CEO Angus reaffirmed last night at the NVIDIA GTC special edition ROS By-the-Bay event that the company has shipped over 150k sensors. He last mentioned this on February 9, which implies that Q4 ’25 plus the first ~40 days of Q1 ’26 account for roughly 13k units. Since we know they shipped 8,100 sensors in Q4, that suggests about 5,000 sensors were shipped in the first 40 days of Q1. At this pace, they could ship approximately 11,250 sensors in Q1. Assuming total shipments of 11k units at a $4.8k ASP, that implies about $52.8M in Q1 revenue—well above the company’s guidance of $45M–$48M. ASP has not fallen below $5k since Q1 2023, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some discounts on high-volume orders, such as Amazon Proteus robots. As long as gross margins remain in the 35%–40% range as guided, some pricing pressure is acceptable, especially if it reflects cost reductions from scaling. Now consider @Stereolabs3D. They generated $16M in revenue last year, with over 60% coming from the second half, per the CFO. This implies roughly $5M from the first half. Assuming 40% growth, we could expect around $7M from Stereolabs in the first half of this year, with approximately $2M attributable to the final seven weeks of Q1 and therefore contributing to consolidated Q1 results. This would suggest total Q1 revenue of around $54.8M when @ousterlidar reports in early May. Conservatively, $50M should be the floor. $OUST






