Rayne Wothbaum

Amazing lol

@mickeychiku Prayers up, G-tubes (and all types of tubes, really) are a good reminder of how barbaric even “modern medicine” can be

There is nothing that can happen in your professional life that will matter if your only child is unhealthy or unwell, physically or mentally. No Michelin star meal tastes good when your Gtube fed child never had a real food. No business class travel feels good when only travel your child can do is between home & hospitals!

@BlaseBio That’s the cool part, you don’t!

All these ophthalmology companies use the same 5 KOLs. How does anyone trust these guys anymore?

@hamsarris6 @BussinBiotech en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E…

Rest of the response: "The formal Army decision on NGSRI is expected by October 2026. You’re in the middle of the decision window. Management at Investor Day was unusually tight-lipped — they said they had “no update” on NGSRI and would only share what Lockheed Martin shares publicly, citing sensitivity and strict constraints. That kind of silence around your biggest program typically means something is actively happening. The “somebody knows” case The chart breaking out today — in a macro selloff, with the broader market getting hammered — on a name where: ∙The biggest binary catalyst in company history is weeks/months from resolution ∙Management can’t say anything publicly ∙Defense names are getting a bounce from the Middle East escalation (Israel/Lebanon, Strait of Hormuz) ∙Resistance sits at $11.52, $12.05, and $12.87 — if it’s closing through $11.52 on volume, that’s a real signal The other pillars supporting a move Beyond NGSRI, LPTH is also positioned for Space Development Agency IR tracking satellites ($3.5B program for 72 satellites initially, with 300–500 more planned), plus FPV drone lens supply to European defense customers. And management said it was shipping first units for the Navy’s SPEAR program and expected LRIP “any day,” with SPEAR potentially worth up to $20M per year. Bottom line: NGSRI is the sleeper. It’s not priced in because management can’t talk about it. The October 2026 decision window + LMT’s flight test progress + a stock moving against the tape on elevated volume = the “someone knows something” setup has real merit here. This is a name worth sizing into on any pullback to the $10-10.50 zone given the asymmetry.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​"

I wake up. Check $LPTH IR page pre-market. No NGSRI. I sleep. I check after hours. No NGSRI. I sleep.

@pemulisking @BlaseBio Success isn’t defined as stat sig on paper here. There’s multiple ways for this to fail/lose/be irrelevant and one of them will come to fruition

@RayneWothbaum @BlaseBio It's not gonna fail in SOL-R

Still blows my mind people looked at the $OCUL data and said this thing doesn't work. Assumptions for the control arm were wildly unrealistic. TKIs are dirty molecules, but they work (ref $EYPT). May be hard for some to swallow.

"we have announced a strategic partnership with Ginkgo Bioworks which enables roboticized, high throughput data generation to feed our AI-enabled drug discovery" bruh.

@CloisterRes ok boomer

Feel like I’m living in the future…taking a waymo home from work for the first time. Surreal.

"you have such great energy" thank you i am on stimulants

@LiteratureBios Think you know we da PuMPaHs own enough of this shitco to not want more side action rip

@LiteratureBios Imma pump dat ass

@A_May_MD Look no further than who is President for evidence of how very wrong this is

@RayneWothbaum I refuse to believe that public beclowning is good for business

You'll never guess which of these two dosing intervals Wedbush says "may not be viable" for $NKTR Rezpeg moving forward. Won't mince words - This firm is responsible for the worst sellside work I've ever seen. Sorry to be harsh, but it is what it is🤷‍♂️

@Cattletech @A_May_MD Eh there is no evidence Wedbush reports move the market

@RayneWothbaum @A_May_MD I thank them deeply for the buying opportunities

@MBbiotech @idalopirdine The answer is no. No EMA was priced in by everyone already

@idalopirdine Not 100% sure what's baked into the numbers or not but has to be a negative for the management team.

$SLNO Now we know why they sold the company so cheaply. Soleno withdraws European application for Prader-Willi syndrome drug April 7, 2026 7:08 AM Soleno Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: SLNO) has voluntarily withdrawn its European marketing authorization application for VIOKAT, a diazoxide choline prolonged-release tablet for treating Prader-Willi syndrome.

@AnotherBio Agreed there's nearly no moral hazard for $LLY to delay timelines. Nitpicks aside, the orexin drugs aren't that different and prob one of the most validated developmental MOAs out there. Speed to market should be well worth the chump change in CVR

$CNTA Started nibbling a bit at the CVR. Let´s say closing August 1, 99% PoS and Break 27$ -> 37.44$ for the cash part (38$). That´s pretty much 2$ for the CVR, reverse engineered that to see what the market implies: ~50/35/25 PoS for the 3 payments respectively (ofc dozens of other combinations possible). What I think is interesting is, how much $LLY paid in cash. This is all very rough math, I´m aware: Consensus peak sales for ORX750 were ~2.3B$, let´s put 20% on top of that so we´ve got peak sales of 2.76B$. Usual multiple of 3 -> 8.28B$ in "Total Value". $LLY pays equity value of 6.3B$ or 76% of that total value, implying a VERY high PoS in their view more than double than what the CVR implies here. Additional risks: Timeline slip, LLY pivoting to next-gen (tbf just another form of timeline slip) but given the competition in the space (ALKS, TAK) I think LLY is highly motivated to speed up the process and the timelines absent the "any approval till Jan1 2030" aren´t that crazy (CNTA is / was about to initiate pivotal trials this Q). Any pushbacks? Not the opportunity of a lifetime, but I think the probabilities implied by the high cash price for CNTA and those in the CVR are an interesting and meaningful discrepancy.

@CloisterRes Fleshlight*

VP and MD across with the flashlight. Associate and analyst are SOL. Done in 10 mins.

Sometimes I think this job is too fckin competitive and want to give up but then I remember there is real trading demand for thematic basket products named “MLFOMORX – BofA Fear of Missing Biotech” and immediately feel better because dafuq is dat lol

TFW watching $GRCE recover from -30% to only -20% intraday

@semodough Being this thirsty for what is demonstrably a shit ass drug is the equivalent of calling the soft 4 at Applebee's the "hottest girl you've seen"

$SLNO Baird Skorney Deal should go through barring a competitive offer. We do think there is potential for a competitive acquirer to try and make an offer over the top, considering the price is modest, but Soleno is a name we expect has also been on many potential acquirers' radars already.

@BiotechAutist @jy201506 "pasted the options chain in AI" lololol ded

@jy201506 I pasted the options chain in ai told it my estimated post crl price. Then had it calculate highest ROI strategy. The 1 dollar put makes it a limited risk setup so you can't lose more than your net debit.

1/ I'm all in short on $REPL They got rejected because the filed study was not adequate and well-controlled. Their answer was not to produce a new study. Their answer was to run the same one back. CRL is coming🧵