AnotherBioInvestor

2.1K posts

AnotherBioInvestor

@AnotherBio

ShitCo connoisseur | focus on biotech | long form stuff might end up on the stack | Why so serious it´s only money | NFA

Katılım Şubat 2021

285 Takip Edilen2.8K Takipçiler

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·16h

$AVR 9$ holla. Stock is up 22% since this news. In other words: it re-rated from 16.5% to 20.2% of the MiRus valuation (equivalent of AVR at ~45.5). So even if you think AVR will catch only half of MiRus (don´t know why, haven´t seen data to support that) AVR should trade at 22$ and is more than a double from here. Substract a "near control premium" of your choice. This is so far off doesn´t matter. Shows the main reason why I still tend to like a decent amount of biotechs: There are still lots of stocks anchored to bear market prices and financings (=folks average) instead of sensible comps. Edit: smartass in comments makes a good point. The thought holds but it´s probably a bit less extreme.

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio

Reason for recent $AVR strength despite tough environment? Wildly different valuation (roughly 6X) for similar / practically identical development stage. On the negative side, probably makes one acquirer (BSX) less probable

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·16h

Hm you´re partially right I think, but you can do some interesting math based on that as well. Logically: You have the 3B IF successful + the portion of implied valuation of MiRus attributable to TAVR which was just paid + MiRus will still be eligible for "additional payments based on net sales of the SIEGEL TAVR valve" which could be quite frankly not much to a freaking lot. Will math around a bit when I got some time on my hands. But just back of the envelope doesn´t look like the result will be AVR is fine at 9$ as a comp?

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J@j65738·17h

@AnotherBio No. Mirus is more than Siegel tavr. Also, the 3B option to buy the rest of siegel tavr is tied to achieving specific clinical and regulatory milestones. So 3B for a DERISKED Siegel tavr.

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·22h

Yeah it´s likely and it feels to me like the company has maybe confirmed that the 1402-royalties are not materially below that, but can´t prove that. Tried a lot back then to get a closer estimate (other company filings and whatnot) but couldn´t find out anything meaningful. Hanall (they get the royalties in the first place) is sitting at 1.7B$ valuation - if you assume they get some value from their own business and there is a ~3/9% royalty split between the two, the valuations don´t seem to be wildly out of line. Hanall also gets decent milestones. It looks to me like $OABI still looks a bit cheaper than Hanall but it´s all guesswork without knowing the exact royalties

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808@prpl8·22h

@AnotherBio I talked with IR re IMVT-1402 royalty rate a while back they said "low-single digit royalty". They disclose average royalty rate for all programs is 3.4%. IIRC street estimates range from 3 to 3.5%

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·5 Kas

Using current weakness to add to / build new positions. Quick pitch on one new idea $OABI (1.38$) 1/x They own several platforms to develop drug candidates and then license them out for milestones + royalties (usually 2-4% percentage range as they license out very early).

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·23h

@monaco_biotech I´m actually long that crap

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Monaco@monaco_biotech·23h

@AnotherBio Haha, but whoever gets there first into this specific names will have the last laugh. I firmly believe they’re going to try to pull a pandemic on us. Because of supply shortages etc everything has to be scaled back to zero.

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Monaco@monaco_biotech·23h

$AEMD Aethlon Medical Monitoring Current Ebola Outbreak and Reaffirms Outbreak/Pandemic Preparedness prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·1d

I told Claude to engineer a SpaceX 2T$ valuation model for me and I gotta say, it has the junior analyst vibes down to a T

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·1d

@NJ_Capital_ yeah still long. My guesstimates didn´t really change. This transaction would value AVR at 45/share if you assume it was worth the same x.com/AnotherBio/sta…

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio

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NJ capital@NJ_Capital_·1d

@AnotherBio Are you still holding $AVR, and what is your current fair value range for it?

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·24 Mar

Haven´t put out anything in a while due to vacation. Some thoughts and random comments to random tickers. $XBI selling off on Iran is... Well, one reason why there is ample money to be made in biotech is that stocks love to sell off on stuff which has zero to minimal impact on the future business of the stocks (be it regional banks, government shutdowns or geopolitical concerns - some folks out there just love to sell exactly the stocks with the least impact to be had). This is just the same, we were due anyway so whatever. With half my feed turning into experts on the strait of Hormuz, LNG and desalination I´m not feeling uncomfortable adding to stuff I like at attractive prices. Whatever, turning to stocks. A 🧵, lazy vacation mobile edition. 1/X

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·1d

@ninghu0402 Like it here, am in and mostly in covered calls and short puts. Not 100% convinced though tbh

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Ning Hu@ninghu0402·1d

@AnotherBio How do you like $ENGN?

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·3d

$XBI Fun collection of more or less random stocks down 5-20% in 3 days on mostly nothing. 1 month-performance (pic2) also getting ugly. Adding exposure here and there, but I´m a bit wary with summer lull coming up $QNCX an interesting case study today, lots of "strategic alternative" names priced aggressively, often above forward net cash. Still own a decent list of them, but r/r only decent in selective names imo

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·1d

$IMVT okay please tell me why this train of thought is stupid: The RA data is clearly very strong (even if you assume a high pbo-response going forward) and with very likely sales in RA of 1.5-2.5B we have 40-60% of market cap of 6.6B covered by RA (with heavy discounting / future dev costs). BUT what is even more striking: These were the first efficacy data of 1402 poised to go for more than a dozen indications. And they completely blew it out of the water? Why wouldn´t the market extrapolate that at least somewhat to all the other indications and increase PoS just a bit on the.. 10-20B in potential peak sales?

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio

$IMVT 1402 destroyed Nipocalimab in RA, a sign of what is coming in, like the other *checks notes* 20+ indications? RA itself adding 1.5-3B$ (?) in sales if that profile is confirmed? $OABI almost a double now, but this has ways to go if market re-rates $IMVT on the back of this clearly BiC data (by extrapolating to other indications / vs. ARGX) Even with recent stock performance, OABI earning > than today´s market cap in peak year not out of the question.

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·1d

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio

$OABI Let´s try this again (1.4x ish), bought back all I sold

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·2d

@Space_Elon_1 @Sanctuary_Bio yes, "old" $XBI aka $BBC was 48 -> 40 or -17% from April peak earlier today. Still agree with him, it was raining dogshit for 4 years straight and now we have people losing their mind on an average biotech correction

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TheRealSpaceElon@Space_Elon_1·2d

@Sanctuary_Bio The ETF composition is vastly different than history with more weight in larger caps. Many mid and small cap bios are down 10-30% in a week or 2. You need to adjust for the different composition. Just citing historical XBI drawdowns is not the correct comp

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WC@Sanctuary_Bio·2d

some of the comments over the last few days lol Maybe I should remind you that in this decade so far, in EVERY year the $XBI at one point has had a 20% drawdown. -8% now, this is even close to real pain. idk how people invest in biotech with such shit temperament.

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·3d

$RPTX boom just paid 22.93 US-cents. The 5 mln from GILD were expected but the 5.7 mln true-up was substantially larger than expected. Would be a touch less spectacular if the 3mln from DCX were included, but cannot say. Just the remaining 3 mln from GILD will bring us to almost 30 cents, when DCx pays their 3 mln (unless included) we´ll get ~5.7 cents at a 90% participation rate. Debiopharm (Lunre) recently also had great news and was initially communicated with a near-term payment, my guess is they will pay 5 mln$ on choosing a P2 dose? Otherwise P2 initiation a highly likely trigger. And there are still other assets to monetize. I think this will return close to or more than 100% of last closing price within 12-18 months and that is before the real deal (the BMY assets) are considered.

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio

$RPTX the thingy closed as announced at ~2.20$. Biggest CVR investment for me so far by far. In the long run, this is all about BMY bringing the riches, but in the near term we´ll be probably looking at: - 3 million additional receivable from DCx (I suppose they are still in fundraising mode?) -> 6.6 cents - Potential payout of return of prepaid expenses + tax credits, maybe 6 centsish, not counting on anything here - 5 mln "completion payment" from Gilead on turning over complete package, 3 to 6 months? -> 11 cents - release of 3 mln holdback in 12 months -> 6.6 cents - 5 mln in potential "near term" from Debiopharm -> 11 cents All in all, we´re looking at potentially 35-40ish gross before any additional asset sales or payments from BMY. Decent chance we get our money back /mostly back in ~15 months? After that, it´s up to Debio and mostly BMY to bring the big guns. 176 mln (3.89$ per CVR) in total R&D / dev / reg milestones before any sales for each of the 7 BMY programs. I still cannot even.

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·3d

Nothing unusual imo regarding governance. Big Q is whether they dilute and what they do with their royalties (especially TEVA/IMVT) if the drugs are successful. Keep them? Sell them? If they sell, what do they do with proceeds? Think their might be a big topic of governance / capital allocation down the road, but PnL vs cash looks fineish for now as 1402 readouts are approaching

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Mika G@sbsc8928·4d

@AnotherBio What are thoughts on some of the governance changes that were filed in January? The top holders list is certainly not passive. I wonder if they are pushing for change?

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·5 Mar

$OABI Small update on the chicken-cow-human antibodies. Unimpressive earnings but narrowing deficit implies they might make it to profitability without dilution (I think it´s mostly a function of 1402 success?). What piqued my interest in recent weeks was this transaction between TEVA/RPRX. It´s still early, but say they proceed to Ph3. Then RPRX will have paid 500 mln$ for "a royalty". Let´s say it´s 10% vs 3% for $OABI, will imply a NPV of at least 150mln$ or 50% of market cap today IF Teva hits the Ph2b / RPRX opts in. We´re not there yet of course, but it´s a very fresh catalyst imo that basically just surfaced that clearly in January when RPRX/TEVA struck the deal.

AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·4d

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·14 May

2026 so far

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·13 May

$RVPH started a pretty speculative position. Down big on delisting, but that´s probably not too important. High level: Their drug had very decent results in the past in schizophrenia and one positive P3 study (RECOVER). Patent life on the molecule is too short though. So they developed an alteration large enough to go for a new patent (2046 CoM expiration targeted) and want the "go" from FDA to use that 2nd molecule in 2nd P3 and then use those 2 studies (as opposed to 2 fresh P3 studies with the new molecule) for their NDA. Feedback is expected mid-year. $SPRB was rescued from OTC. $NERV was re-capitalized with what looks like weaker data to me. $GRTX rescued from OTC via RM. They probably have like 85ish cents per share in net cash today, but will go negative during Q4 probably. So you probably win very big if their plan works. You would also win from here if FDA tells them to GTFO and they go full SA very quickly and pull a $GRTX Or you lose a substantial amount in a combination of can-kicking, slow-walking and negative FDA-feedback (aka "biotech base case")

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AnotherBioInvestor@AnotherBio·13 May

I like $RCKT here for its Danon program. Feel like stock can go up 1-2$/Q as long as there is no safety event. Safety event = pretty much game over, but I could see them get fresh money & institutional support in H2 after they´re aligned with FDA for the remainder of the study and the three fresh patients look acceptable on safety side

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Keşfet

@monaco_biotech @NJ_Capital_ @ninghu0402 @Space_Elon_1 @Sanctuary_Bio @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13