Robin Molenkamp

US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest level since May 2023 and above expectations. Main driver: - Energy prices surged due to the oil shock from the Iran conflict. - Gasoline and fuel oil saw the biggest increases. Key takeaways: - Headline CPI: 3.8% YoY (vs 3.3% prior) - Core CPI: 2.8% YoY (vs 2.6% prior) - Shelter inflation also moved higher - Monthly inflation remained hot This suggests inflation pressures are broadening again, not just limited to energy. Markets now face a difficult setup: - Rising inflation - Elevated oil prices - Sticky core CPI - Potentially higher yields for longer The key question: Does this remain an energy-driven spike, or does it spread further into the broader economy? Core inflation data in the coming months will probably become a market mover again.

US small business optimism remained weak in April. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 95.9, below the long-term average of 98.0 for a second straight month. Key takeaways: - Hiring sentiment weakened again - Businesses continue raising prices - Inflation pressures remain sticky - Uncertainty is still elevated Interesting part: NFIB says the Working Families Tax Cut Act could start supporting the private sector in the coming months through stronger consumer spending and business activity.

@pepemoonboy Broadening out of the market rally would be bullish, you can get a melt up scenario in that case.

@pepemoonboy Its important what happens next, does the rally broaden out or is it solely the AI theme that is going to make a correction and consolidate.

Everybody calm down. It's just a correction...this is healthy. Markets can't go up forever. We will be back at all time highs in no time.

$XBI $IBB

$HG steadily breaking out, looking to increase exposure to commodities/energy.

Inflation started to rise; today’s print was a bit hotter than expected. Nothing to worry about yet. Today’s pullback is likely due to liquidity. The key will be what happens in the coming days. 1. Does the rally broaden? 2. Do we get a sharper pullback concentrated around the AI theme? Time will tell. Observe.

@KobeissiLetter Short $TLT

The US bond market crisis is intensifying. While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown. The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025. Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve. At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year. The question then becomes: How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis? And, who folds first?

@HouseDemocrats Democrats are the reason the US is struggling.

Donald Trump’s war with Iran has cost American taxpayers $29 BILLION. Unacceptable. Americans didn’t vote for this.

BREAKING: Pullback incoming, market breath/momentum turns negative.

Market breath turns negative today, I expect a pullback.

Scaled down tech exposure today, markets look stretched. Will get back in on a pullback.

@Investingcom Markets are reacting ok so far, lets see what will happen when markets open.

⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. APRIL CPI INFLATION RISES 3.8% Y/Y; EST. 3.7%; PREV. 3.3% *HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2023 🇺🇸🇺🇸

Why $XBI is a better long than $IBB in this phase of the biotech cycle It comes down to structure: equal-weight small/mid caps vs large-cap concentration. In risk-on biotech regimes, that difference matters a lot. Full breakdown below: themetrader.substack.com/p/the-biotech-…

What will you do if inflation spikes?

US supercore inflation moving up. Short $TLT

unpopular opinion, but backtesting is massively overrated it mainly trains you to recognize idealized patterns in hindsight the nuances of live markets, uncertainty, imperfect conditions, and emotional pressure get neglected those are two very different skills

@Investingcom Core inflation will be key, I expect a miss.

⚠️WHAT DO YOU THINK TODAY'S US CPI NUMBER WILL BE? • ESTIMATE IS 3.7% 🇺🇸🇺🇸

@Investingcom Miss!

BREAKING: U.S. citizens are losing faith in Trump’s policies.