Theo

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Theo

@The0_o7

astrophysics/sociology/film - news writer

United States Inscrit le Ekim 2025
201 Abonnements585 Abonnés
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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
You can now access to my forecast model from the link below. - forecast and nowcast - ratings - polls - swingometer - past elections (in progress)
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Theo@The0_o7·
I wonder if we will ever see a poll with 20s % approval for Trump.
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Michael
Michael@Socdem_Michael·
@The0_o7 Bernie would have won the nomination in a 45 state landslide in 2020 if the base back then was as anti-establishment-pilled as they are now. Lmao
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Theo@The0_o7·
When both aisles run a moderate candidate, independents look more likely to vote Republican than Democrat. I am gathering evidence on this.
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Theo@The0_o7·
@bd1939_ The political environment is way too polarized than 2020. So I don’t think it would have any effect in favor of Collins. But yeah you are right.
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bd1939
bd1939@bd1939_·
@The0_o7 Don’t forget about the 2020 Maine polling miss. I think Platner will win too but it’s important to consider that Maine polling is dodgy at best and Collin’s always outperforms polling
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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
Platner is by far the favorite to hold this for six years. He is currently leading by 12.7 points over Collins. link below
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Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Emerson poll | 3/21-3/23 LV US Senate Maine Democratic primary 2026 🟦Graham Platner 55% 🟦Janet Mills 28% Someone else 4% Undecided 13% —— US Senate Maine 2026 🟦Graham Platner 48% 🟥Susan Collins 41% (incumbent) Other/undecided 12% — 🟦Janet Mills 46% 🟥Susan Collins 43% (incumbent) Other/undecided 11% —— Favorables (net) 🟥❌Susan Collins (-19) 🟦❌Janet Mills (-14) 🟦✅Graham Platner (+4) emersoncollegepolling.com/maine-2026-pol…

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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
Strongly approve is at 18%
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

Pew Research: Do you approve or disapprove of Trump's handling of U.S. military action against Iran? Approve: 37% Disapprove: 61% —— 54% expect U.S. military action against Iran to last at least six more months, including 29% who believe it will continue for a year or longer. —— Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force in Iran? Right decision: 38% Wrong decision: 59% 3/16-22 | 3,524 A pewresearch.org/politics/2026/…

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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
RATING UPDATE MAINE SENATE -> LIKELY D link below
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Theo@The0_o7·
AOC 2nd place in New Hampshire.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Emerson poll | 3/21-3/23 LV 2028 US presidential primaries (New Hampshire) 🟦Democratic Pete Buttigieg 19.7% AOC 11.8% Gavin Newsom 11.6% Mark Kelly 10.1% Kamala Harris 8.4% JB Priztker 5.1% Josh Shapiro 4.4% Andy Beshear 2.7% Someone else 2.5% Undecided 23.6% —— 🟥Republican JD Vance 42.8% Marco Rubio 17.7% Nikki Haley 6.2% Ron DeSantis 4.5% RFK Jr 3.1% Ted Cruz 2.6% Someone else 2.8% Undecided 20.3%

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Theo@The0_o7·
@Socdem_Michael They don’t need him anymore. So they might as well move on, if it hurts them in a way they even lose Texas.
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Michael
Michael@Socdem_Michael·
@The0_o7 Trump has built a strong enough cult that I think 30% is basically his floor. He could be caught on 4k video diddling kids with Epstein and that 30% wouldn’t budge.
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Theo@The0_o7·
@AlexBalderas118 @NewEnglandDLM Paxton is exactly like Trump. Trump won Texas by 15 points so I don’t expect Paxton to create a huge difference. I know a lot of people that does not like Paxton but would vote for him because they are Republican leaning (sometimes even conservative independents)
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SpaceXSfuffandthangsTexas
SpaceXSfuffandthangsTexas@AlexBalderas118·
@The0_o7 @NewEnglandDLM Well definitely have to see what’ll happen because Paxton scandals are loud and clear bribery, criminally charged, adultery and Dems will go all out on his scandals. Especially Christian fight between him and Talarico. Paxton not popular with independents either.
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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
Yes James would be the only anti-establishment candidate in the race and therefore win against Cornyn. Case of Talarico-Paxton is different, two anti-establishment candidates basically move people out of anti vs establishment chamber and give us back the old party lines. As we saw with 2024 NC GOV race, the party lines are strong, Mike Robinson got 40% of the votes despite all the scandals — only 8% swing from AG race. Paxton’s scandals are not as much impactful as Mike Robinsons.
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SpaceXSfuffandthangsTexas
SpaceXSfuffandthangsTexas@AlexBalderas118·
@The0_o7 @NewEnglandDLM Isn’t James also running on anti-establishment including talking about billionaires and puppet politicians. Question is who do you think has the better anti-establishment messaging Talarico or Paxton. Because people love Talarico message for being antiestablishment.
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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
The evidence we have points at the opposite. The evidence isn’t clear because it’s maybe two or three polls but MAGA attracts anti-establishment voters —especially in Texas. If the Republicans put an establishment conservative, they cannot win. The Conservative movement exists because they have added anti-establishment voters —in the name of MAGA—
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SpaceXSfuffandthangsTexas
SpaceXSfuffandthangsTexas@AlexBalderas118·
@The0_o7 @NewEnglandDLM You two are right about Paxton his polarization will be massive. Not even including the brutal runoff him and Cornyn will go through. Talarcio won’t have to say or do much about Paxton. Cornyn Will certainly be harder.
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Theo
Theo@The0_o7·
@ModRightPatriot My thought is that Republicans continue to be polarized without Trump, if they lose the midterms in a landslide.
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Theo@The0_o7·
@NewEnglandDLM It will definitely be historic to see a more than a decade old era of politics to change. We'll see how it will go down.
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Doug
Doug@NewEnglandDLM·
@The0_o7 True, but he would still hold sway with many Republican voters, and his endorsement, or lack thereof, would matter a lot. Whether the Republican like it or not, they've tied themselves to him. If he goes down they go down.
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Doug
Doug@NewEnglandDLM·
@The0_o7 @AlexBalderas118 I think Texas does runoffs for their General Elections, so Talarico would need to get 50.01% of the popular vote to win in the first round. I don't know if the Libertarian taking votes from Cornyn would matter that much if there is a runoff system.
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