Theo

1.2K posts

Theo

@The0_o7

astrophysics/polisci - data science - opinions are my own

United States Katılım Ekim 2025

254 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler

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Theo@The0_o7·3d

I have an important announcement to share today. I am joining @VoteHub for the 2026 election cycle, where I will be contributing toto primary and general election coverage across the country. I am very excited for the opportunity, and I am grateful to @GarrettHerrin and the team for bringing me on ahead of a cycle this consequential. My work will focus on primary elections summer early on, and on general election races up and down the ballot into November. I am looking forward to getting started, and I will have a lot more to share in the weeks ahead. Thank you to everyone who has supported the work so far.

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Theo@The0_o7·1h

As you can see from the 2018 Senate election chart, Beto consolidated over young and lower income voters.

Theo@The0_o7

As you can see from the 2024 presidential election chart, Talarico's electorate looks more like Trump's.

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Theo@The0_o7·1h

Andy Burnham makes this seat slightly leaning towards Labour, gaining back almost all of their 2024 votes.

Theo@The0_o7

Working on a detailed analysis for this seat, coming this afternoon.

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Theo@The0_o7·1h

As you can see from the 2024 presidential election chart, Talarico's electorate looks more like Trump's.

Theo@The0_o7

Attempted for the Texas 2026 Democratic Primary

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Theo@The0_o7·1h

Attempted for the Texas 2026 Democratic Primary

Owen Winter@OwenWntr

The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards

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Theo@The0_o7·5h

GIF

InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

2028 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES 🔵 Harris 22% 🔵 Newsom 15% 🔵 AOC 13% 🔵 Buttigieg 12% 🔵 Sanders: 11% 🔵 Kelly 6% 🔵 Booker: 4% 🔵 Shapiro 4% 🔵 Klobuchar 2% 🔵 Pritzker 2% 🔵 Whitmer 1% —— 🔴 Vance 37% 🔴 Rubio 16% 🔴 Trump Jr 13% 🔴 DeSantis 7% 🔴 Haley 4% 🔴 Vivek 3% 🔴 Carlson 2% 🔴 Cruz 2% 🔴 Cotton 1% 🔴 Gabbard 1% 🔴 Hawley 1% 🔴 Youngkin: 1% Verasight | 4/21-23 | 864 adults #key-takeaways" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">reports.verasight.io/reports/variet…

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Theo@The0_o7·11h

Which margin was closer? (2024 presidential election)

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Theo@The0_o7·11h

Biden won Bronx 83-15 so it is safe to say that there is an ongoing trend connected to demographics. Bronx is 56% Hispanic.

Earthy 🦆🌎🌱@EarthoOS

Look how much we’ve fallen off 😭

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Theo@The0_o7·15h

Working on a detailed analysis for this seat, coming this afternoon.

Theo@The0_o7

I’m curious of Conservative voters’ behavior for this election. Green and LD voters will most likely will lean towards Burnham.

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Theo@The0_o7·1d

I’m curious of Conservative voters’ behavior for this election. Green and LD voters will most likely will lean towards Burnham.

Josh Housden@JoshHousden

This is INSANELY high risk / high reward

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

This is not a great internal to release for Goldman.

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Schoen Cooperman Research poll | 5/1-5/4 US House 2026 | New York's 10th congressional district Democratic primary 🟦Brad Lander 47% 🟦Dan Goldman 42% (incumbent) 🟦Nickie Kane 3% Undecided 8% (Pollster from super PAC supportive of Dan Goldman) cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/…

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

@dazzy_rueng Marist also shows a lead for Democrats that is above 10%

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𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞 • 🇬🇪🇦🇲🇺🇦🇵🇸🌹@dazzy_rueng·4d

@The0_o7 prolly faux weighting cause no other poll shows that

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

Last AtlasIntel poll was from December and it was D+16.

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

AtlasIntel will be releasing a national poll on Tuesday at 8AM ET

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

D+8 is the new D+6

Political Polls@PpollingNumbers

New - Generic Ballot poll 🔵 Democrats 52% (+8) 🔴 Republicans 44% 🟤 Trump approval - Disapprove +15 Financial times #B - RV - 5/5

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

@ryanjmccomb Desperately in need of a reputable pollster to poll this race

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Ryan McComb@ryanjmccomb·4d

Dire for Steyer

InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

CALIFORNIA POLL - Governor (top 2 advance) 🟥 Steve Hilton: 22% (+4) 🟦 Xavier Becerra: 20% (+10) 🟦 Tom Steyer: 14% (-2) 🟥 Chad Bianco: 13% (-1) 🟦 Katie Porter: 9% (+1) 🟦 Matt Mahan: 9% (+5) 🟦 A. Villaraigosa: 1% (+/- change vs 4/12-18) —— Kreate Strategies | 5/5-9 | 900 LV kstrat.net/press/californ…

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

This type of coalition does not look impossible for Osborn. Democrats, Independents and some Republicans.

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

All of Osborn’s internals were around +1 and -1, take it with a grain of salt but this is important.

Dan Osborn@osbornforne

🚨 BIG NEWS 🚨 Dan Osborn leads Pete Ricketts 47-42 in a new poll! Pete Ricketts didn't earn his Senate seat. His daddy bought it. Nebraskans are ready for someone who actually has their back. tavernresearch.com/research-and-w…

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

@peltolamentum I needed some money so I maxed out all the taxes. It wasn’t election time so nothing happened.

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murk 🦕@peltolamentum·4d

@The0_o7

GIF

QME

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

They didn’t like my short term tax plan.

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

This isn’t a hot take for anyone born after 1960s

Matt@sixringsofsteeI

This might be the greatest Knicks team I’ve ever seen

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Theo@The0_o7·4d

This midterm election features a lot of independent candidates. A lot of data for future campaigns on coalitions.

Brian Bengs@BrianBengs

I’m running for Senate to put South Dakotans first. Not Chuck Schumer, not John Thune, not big money donors. Give our new ad a watch.

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Keşfet

@dazzy_rueng @ryanjmccomb @peltolamentum @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates