Gut feeling we get pretty decent relief bounces during the early hours tomorrow
The fuckery will kick in later in the US session where I think risk likely gets offloaded again into another weekend
All in all, im pretty happy with how ive played the week
But remaining nimble here
This is structural support for the indices, $BTC and many individual names
Should be an interesting end to what has been an entertaining week in markets
Look forward to seeing you in the books
Created a list of my favourite traders.
Apologies if missed anyone just done it from the top of my head.
Click follow and remove tons of noise from feed. x.com/i/lists/172387…
Large options expiraitons coming tomorrow and there is a lot that can happen between now and then
My main bias still remains bearish/neutral within confides of range, however, this is where I tp'd a good chunk on some shorts i had running on $BTC, $ETH as I feel this is a big zone to be defended if bulls are to show some cojones
I'd defo load my book again if we got green box but happy to book profits in this environment and hold % of core in the event this just crapshoots to the bottom end of range (in that event I will not be chasing/compounding as it is not my style)
Have a fab week
Quick note on the @EVEDEX competition:
If you didn't hit the top 50, it's not game over. There's still good reason to keep trading.
Volume prize is guaranteed. Doesn't matter what spot you're in, you get it based on activity.
Places 51–250 are still earning extra points right now. We all know why those points matter after seeing what happened with Aster and Hyperliquid.
If you're already active anyway, might as well collect both. There is plenty of two way volatility to play right now.
Get clicking🫶: invite.evedex.com/timeless101
(+10% cashback from the start)
$HYPE great move and defo stronger coins in the brypto verse
But this is qaurter resistance Might set up for a banger mean reverting short here
If i was long from the week this is where id aggressively be taking profit
Sri Lanka just declared wednesday a national holiday in an attempt to curb use of fuel
Phillipines is also having serious supply issues
Vietnam I hear has the highest prices bar none globally
And parts of Africa namely Southern African countries are also being hit tremendously hard as they are immensely energy dependent
I haven't even got to europe yet but I trust the issue remains sticky there as well
This can hit global credit markets as economies of scale scramble to pay debt and struggle with balooning energy prices
The US is the best positioned indeed to stomach the blow as they produce their own energy but that doesn't mean they are immune
My point is this isn't a simple taco moment. There are a lot of moving parts to this equation. This has the potential to metastitisize into something far more accute
The dollar is your friend rn
"NOTHING EVER HAPPENS"
Market so convinced that all the secondary, tertiary downstream effects are priced to perfection
Oil is ripping to multi decade highs and your first thought is: "transitory"
Complacent is an understatement
I will caveat my statement of bearish
Being bearish or bullish is a meme
We love memes here
#BTC spends approx. 80% of its time ranging
We have only been ranging since we broke down from our previous value accrued for just over a month now
We can range A LOT MORE (multiple months of value overlap)
In the context of this backdrop where do you think is sensible to position at the top side of value?
Because of that I simply think looking for qaulity shorts into the mid 60s and potentially lower (range lows) is a smarter more prudent play here
That is all
Again I don't give a damn to be right or wrong tbh
I come on this app and i treat it almost like a snapshot in time
What i say at the moment, motivations, positioning etc.
Consider it an insight into my trading journal
However, one thing I have been consistent on the last week is we are ranging and I don't think broad market participants are taking this War seriously
Alot is not priced to perfection and thus I think downside risks given context is very much present
That said, a lot can happen today and tomorrow so monthly VAH from Feb is the LIS and because markets don't move to and from lines statically and that it is likely to be a dynamic zone where participants battle it out I think the green box is a great thing to watch rn
Second chart is a broader yearly view: confluence with the yearly vwap and a downward sloping 90 day is another green box where I could see us have a few upward stabs in the 77-78 k region
TLDR: I am leaning bearish but I am not stupid and have a fairly broad invalidation zone to which I will likely flip my trading strats to chase momentum rather than being default mean reverting in nature
#BTC