John Peters

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John Peters

John Peters

@UpdraftwMax

Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Penn State Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) expertise in cloud and storm dynamics

State College, PA Inscrit le Mayıs 2020
240 Abonnements987 Abonnés
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
For those of you interested in using ECAPE, a link to a preprint of the paper we submitted is available here: arxiv.org/abs/2301.04712 And a matlab script that computes this quantity is available here: doi.org/10.6084/m9.fig…
Cameron Nixon@CameronJNixon

Entrainment CAPE (ECAPE) is the next big thing in severe wx forecasting, imho. Brilliant work in progress by @UpdraftwMax to take a simple sounding and estimate updraft velocity with incredible accuracy. Big deal for tornado, hail potential etc.

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Matthew Brown
Matthew Brown@Rhapsodyinbrown·
@PSU_RadarMeteo Thanks, I'll definitely check out the Wu & Lombardo paper! I'm not doing the Alfaro paper justice - he derives a whole dynamical framework, so the pressure perturbation analysis is in there. And yeah, the deep-layer shear perspective is solid (I've heard that from NWS folks too).
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@AnthonyC_H I think the potential caveat is, there is no guarantee that KE is conserved along these parcels entering from aloft (we have some evidence that it is for parcels that enter from low-levels)
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@AnthonyC_H The way to do this is probably to use some sort of entraining plume model, where the KE from the air coming in from different levels is entrained.
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@AnthonyC_H In short, ECAPE includes the kinetic energy of inflow.
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
Sups finding the Bermuda triangle off the eastern FL coast
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@DrKimWood I would argue that a tropical cyclone that both expands its wind field and does not weaken fast enough can WORSTEN impacts...
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@BMcNoldy We're now up to Final T at 7.2 and raw at 7.7... so *most likely*
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@Meteodan Based on flight-level winds from the last recon pass, it's probably already there...
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
Post ERC bomb-out commence...
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
sorry, 24 kt.
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
Also, eye dropsonde came down in ~26 kt of surface wind, supporting a central surface pressure a few mb below 899...
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
Dropsonde splashed down amid 161 kt winds (peaked at 188 kt on the way down)...
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
@spahn711 Can't tell if it's just a data frequency issue, but the flight level wind never bottomed out. They may have missed the lowest pressure.
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Daniel T. Dawson II
Daniel T. Dawson II@Meteodan·
@VORTEXJeff Interesting how it keeps trying to clear the eye out, but then another blowup of convection in the eyewall obscures it again. Still think there's a window for more rapid intensification if the eye can clear out, but equally possible that it maintains this structure until landfall
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
Cuban weather radar is hinting at a developing ring of convection near the core - something that has been largely absent throughout the day
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John Peters
John Peters@UpdraftwMax·
Cloud tops have warmed within #helene2024 's central dense overcast, but don't be fooled...
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