joe white
6K posts

joe white
@cyberlocksmith
growth in the absence of change is impossible
San Francisco, CA Inscrit le Nisan 2009
1.1K Abonnements1.1K Abonnés

@MilesTaylorUSA patterns repeat
character doesnt
power doesnt create character
it reveals it

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@newrepublic institutional pathways are being tested and redefined
if criminal law weakens accountability doesnt vanish
it finds a new path

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A rundown of the Trump administration’s scandals and crimes resembles, with shocking likeness, the grave, sweeping charges laid out in the Declaration of Independence against the last American king. trib.al/Xc6hWuo
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@PenguinSix @nytimes @GettyImages nice!
the shot finds the one who stays
six hours of patience for one moment
well earned

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Six hours outside a courthouse with six entrances trying to find one person as he drives in a car with blacked out windows. In the end I just set the scene, but it made it in the @nytimes A18 tomorrow. For @GettyImages

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From @WSJFreeEx via @WSJOpinion: Barack Obama’s most conspicuous political failure is that he governed in a way that made the nation receptive to Donald Trump, writes @jackbutler4815
on.wsj.com/48RfnEr
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The Trump administration on Wednesday appealed a federal judge's ruling blocking key elements of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s push to reshape U.S. vaccine policy, including reducing the number of routinely recommended childhood vaccinations. reuters.com/world/trump-ad…
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To live in certain Ukrainian cities Odesa, for example, you must, at the very least, be prepared for these kinds of sights and sounds at night. Year after year, the world calls Ukrainians brave and resilient, but anyone would become the same in such conditions. Bravery isn’t something you are born with; it is something you acquire, either by choice or because of external circumstances.
The familiar view from the window of a peaceful Ukrainian citizen has become a constant reminder that in this world, anything can happen anywhere and at any time. Once, something like this might have seemed like a mere fantasy or thoughts about the wars of our ancestors; now, it is the reality of my people and my country. Ukrainians watch explosions from their homes and windows, while the world watches it from their phone screens. A modern world with its technology and development. It’s only a pity that people like the russians and those like them do not want to grow as human beings, to learn how to live without war and the destruction of their neighbors. After all, we are human beings just like them. ...though, no, we are different from russians, and it's a long list of differences.
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Hahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahbahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahhahahah
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
lmao! Bessent complains that Powell staying on the Fed board is a "violation of norms"
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In five years, when all the truths come out, people will not be able to believe the ineptitude of this man
Vatnik Soup@P_Kallioniemi
Trump: “I think Ukraine, militarily, they’re defeated. They had 159 ships. Every ship is underwater. Every one of their planes has been shot down.” Yes, he mixed up Iran and Ukraine. He really did
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@colbyLsmith @nytimes this is widely misunderstood
chair term ends on fixed date
governor term runs to 2028
institutional independence and not politics is the point
fomc sets policy
as a governor, powell remains part of that process
history will remember powell favorably for protecting the fed

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Wednesday's Fed meeting encapsulated the acute challenges that Warsh will inherit once he is confirmed as chair. Sharp divisions have emerged inside the central bank about the path forward for policy, Powell is staying on as a governor and Trump is not letting up on his demands for lower rates
nytimes.com/2026/04/29/bus… @nytimes
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Fed. Chair Jerome Powell:
I have said I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that. I'm encouraged by recent developments and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully. My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve. After my term as chair ends on may 15, I will continue to serve as governor for a period of time to be determined.
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@YourAnonCentral the question isnt the plan
its whether institutions resist it
rules can change
enforcement determines the outcome
legal power doesnt guarantee lawful behavior
the system doesnt fail at once
its tested piece by piece
do institutions push back or normalize the shift?

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@pierredelecto91 @AP speculation not fact
fed policy is about inflation and jobs not midterms
chair term ends
powell stays on the board through 2028
institutional independence is the point
fomc sets policy
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@AP Powell intent on destroying the economy further AND hurting Trump in midterms. approve Warsh and get Powell out!
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BREAKING: Jerome Powell says he plans to remain on the board of the Federal Reserve after his term as chair ends next month “for an undetermined period of time.” apnews.com/article/powell…
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Trump’s FCC chair, Brendan Carr, says he plans to punish and potentially revoke broadcast licenses for TV networks critical of the Trump administration:
“I’d be surprised if we don’t go down the path of license revocation for some. It will be up to them and their conduct.”
This is fascism. This is what they do in authoritarian countries.
This is cancel culture on steroids.
Where’s the outrage?
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@shanaka86 speculative narrative layering/misleading
trump did not "win" fed
chair term ends but powell remains a governor through 2028
institutional continuity not capture matters more than headlines
history will reward powell for rising above partisanship to protect the fed

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JUST IN: 13-11 party-line. Warsh advances.
The consensus formed inside an hour. Trump won the Fed. Powell is finished. Cuts are coming.
Then Powell spoke from the FOMC podium.
He is not retiring on May 15. He will remain on the Board of Governors for a period of time to be determined, citing the things that have happened in the last three months as the reason he had no choice but to stay. His statutory term as Governor runs to January 31, 2028. He said the decision was about protecting the Fed.
This is the first time since Marriner Eccles in 1948 that an outgoing Chair has remained on the Board.
Eccles stayed three years. From that exact Board seat, around February 1, 1951, he released the Federal Reserve’s account of a Truman White House meeting to the New York Times and the Washington Post, breaking open the political pressure campaign on the central bank. The leak forced the public negotiation that produced the Treasury-Fed Accord on March 4, 1951. The founding document of seventy-five years of central bank independence was authored by an outgoing Chair using a Board seat to defend the institution against direct presidential pressure.
Powell knows that history. He chose the same seat.
The FOMC vote on the same afternoon told the rest of the story. 8-4 split on the rate hold at 3.50 to 3.75. Most divided FOMC vote since October 6, 1992. Governor Miran dissented for an immediate 25 basis point cut. Three regional Fed presidents, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, dissented on the statement’s easing-bias language, pulling the other direction. Four dissenters across two opposite poles on a single vote.
This is not a captured Fed.
This is a fractured one.
Warsh inherits a committee already split four ways. His predecessor will sit at the table as a voting Governor with explicit institutional-defense intent and a personal record of dissenting on QE2 and resigning over policy disagreement. Fetterman is the only Democrat publicly committing to a yes vote on the floor. The full Senate confirms the week of May 11. Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16-17.
Now the part the consensus missed entirely.
CME FedWatch repriced after the announcement. Roughly 85 percent probability of no change through December 2026. The market did not price the easing the consensus narrative claimed was coming. The market read what the FOMC printed, watched Powell choose the Eccles seat, and de-priced the Trump cuts in real time.
The asymmetric inflation ratchet thesis just got tested at the source. Powell as Governor through 2028 plus a four-way fractured FOMC plus a market that has already withdrawn its bid for aggressive cuts is the inverse of the setup the consensus posted before Powell spoke.
The handoff is not the regime change. The 8-4 split is.
June 17 is the test.
If Powell dissents from the chair Warsh casts the rate vote, the Accord defends itself a second time and the asymmetric ratchet stalls in the open.
If Powell holds his low profile and the cuts come anyway, the market that just de-priced them will reprice them violently.
Either path produces the trade. Neither path produces the consensus.
Fifty days.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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