Devin Baker

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Devin Baker

Devin Baker

@devbakes

@__comma__ | a new-paradigm crypto fund at the frontier Joyful, relentless, adventurous excellence

DUMBO, NY Inscrit le Ağustos 2021
1.3K Abonnements367 Abonnés
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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
1/ Some excerpts shared with our investors in our annual letter. Very timely amidst the widespread panic. Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers. We still believe in the opportunity ahead. The big picture: Our vision of the future We see a world where some of the most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies. Innovations like language, writing, money, legal codes, democracy, capitalism, the limited liability company, the printing press, railroads, the telegraph, the internet - to name a few - expanded the trajectory and possibilities of humanity in a continual process of progress. At its core, crypto is a coordination technology. And we believe that crypto is another one of these paradigm-shifting forces - one that will touch many parts of our world, from community and culture to capital. Crypto gives us new tools to coordinate human, financial, and technological capital more effectively - enabling humans to do what we do best: imagine and paint the vision of a better future, muster resources behind that vision, and act to make it real. By reducing the friction of coordination, crypto amplifies the impact of harnessing all that's necessary to build together. It blows open the surface area of what's possible. And it does so while simultaneously promoting values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy. These world-changing outcomes don't just happen overnight. This vision demands a multi-year, multi-decade time horizon. This long gaze doesn’t just guide where we’re going - it also guides how we respond to the inevitable turbulence along the way. It is this vision, and this time horizon, that inspire the work we do at Comma.
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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
Comma Partners, February 2026 update --- The Straight of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is up. The dollar is up. Yields are up. Inflation expectations are up. And yet - crypto is up too. We’re still bullish for the year, but increasingly wary in the short-term. Full update in the reply 👇🏼
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Devin Baker retweeté
richroll
richroll@richroll·
I think David Senra is an incredibly talented podcaster and I have tremendous respect for his commitment to the craft. That said, successful entrepreneurship isn’t by definition a proxy for wisdom. Just because someone is obscenely wealthy or powerful doesn’t mean we should take their ludicrous galaxy brain takes seriously. Sure, things like fear and self-doubt unnecessarily interfere with action and momentum. And many people would indeed benefit from cultivating a proclivity for decisiveness. But promoting the idea that introspection is a problematic artifact of modernity we’d all be better off without is patently wrong, horrible on its face, and arguably pathological. Not only does the unexamined life devoid of self-reflection detach one’s self from things like accountability and empathy, as Socrates said it’s actually not worth living.
David Senra@davidsenra

Great men of history had little to no introspection. The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself. @pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about: David: You don't have any levels of introspection? Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible. David: Why? Marc: Move forward. Go! I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection. Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up and was like: I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again. Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective. All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s. Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff. The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology. And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self criticize. The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past. It never resonated with me.

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isaac
isaac@theisaacmed·
I am a massive Founders pod fan. I say this kindly. This take is bad. Marcus Aurelius was a literal philosopher Socrates Julius Caesar wrote Gallic Wars and Civil war while literally doing war Alexander The Great was personally tutored by Aristotle Abraham Lincoln wrestled deeply with depression and meaning his whole life Benjamin Franklin. Inventory, and had an autobiography that was deeply introspective about self improvement. Andrew Carnegie funded 2500+ libraries. You think he didn’t spend a lot of time reading and thinking about what wealth was for? Charlie Munger…. I could keep going endlessly.
David Senra@davidsenra

Great men of history had little to no introspection. The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself. @pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about: David: You don't have any levels of introspection? Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible. David: Why? Marc: Move forward. Go! I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection. Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up and was like: I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again. Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective. All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s. Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff. The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology. And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self criticize. The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past. It never resonated with me.

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qw
qw@QwQiao·
continue to believe that zcash is the last possible 1000x in crypto. gov overreach, money printing, rise in socialism, quantum. all massive multi-decade tailwinds. as with btc, don’t trade it. accumulate during periods of apathy and hold it for 10-20yrs.
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qw
qw@QwQiao·
trading is fundamentally a zero sum game where in order to make money u have to outsmart ur competitors long term investing is a positive sum bet on a better future. why banging ur head against the wall trying to win a difficult and competitive game when u can play a far easier game with almost no competition?
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Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal@RaoulGMI·
I can see how despondent everyone is about crypto and the pure chartists are telling you it's all over, but I don't agree... Global Liquidity is the most dominant macro factor in history with a 90% correlation to BTC and 97% to NDX since 2012. It is growing at around 10% a year and is not slowing. GMI financial conditions lead it by 6 months. They are still easing. The air pocket was US Total Liquidty which was curtailed by the shut down. It leads crypto by 3 months and is accelerating from its low 3 months ago. The business cycle is the key driver of earning and thus risk. It is accelerating. The eSLR is the mechanism by which banks can increase liquidity via credit and absorbing treasury issuance. This liquidity is rising too and will accelerate. Tax refunds land on bank balance sheets and add to propensity of credit creation and thus liquidity. China is accelerating expanding its balance sheet. More rate cuts are coming in the US and will add to disposable income and thus risk taking. CLARITY Act will likely get agreed and adds to flows. The wall of banks and asset managers wanting to use this technology is enormous and this bill sorts that out. Stablecoins are accelerating and issuance grew 50% last year and is accelerating. Volumes are in the trillions of $'s and are accelerating. We have the most supportive government for crypto ever in the US. Finally the agents are coming and will hyper accelerate. They are an entirely new TAM The crypto market is still in fear and by most measures the most oversold in history. Weekly DeMark indicators would give a very solid base in 2 weeks (you can now get them officially on Trading View). Daily DeMark's are stack up too. Any weakness from here will complete the dailies and the weeklies indicating full trend reversal potential. The risk factor is how long oil prices stay up. The next 2 weeks are the key focus. I think this all resolves positively. Higher.
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Mippo 🟪
Mippo 🟪@MikeIppolito_·
Continue to think that crypto has bottomed here. Headline after headline of horrendous news but BTC and ETH can't make new lows. The market rarely gives you such a clear signal.
Dan Tapiero@DTAPCAP

Just an ol guy watching price action. Ol school comment. Oil at 120, korea stocks crushed, theoretical vix probably near 40 if it were open. And eth holding well. Along with btc feels sold out..ie we've been going down for almost 7 months. Break of 2250 heads back to 3300.

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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
Comma Partners, January 2026 update --- Crypto is oversold and misunderstood. AI fears are actually crypto tailwinds. We still believe. We are buyers. Full update in the reply 👇🏼
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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
THIS
Sam Ragsdale@samrags_

With all due respect to Hasseeb, I completely disagree with this take. Chris was and is a mentor to me, I'm not pretending otherwise. But neither Chris nor Haseeb are builders in the category. I have spent the last year in the trenches trying to build non-speculative consumer crypto usecases. Ignore "non-financial". That's a useless umbrella. I care about non-speculative. Here's what I know with total clarity: Three years ago it was 100% impossible to ship a good consumer crypto experience. Not hard. Not early. Impossible. The wallet experience was complete and utter dogshit. Injected wallets are an unacceptable UX. Seed phrases, unacceptable. Blind signing, unacceptable. Bridging, unacceptable. Here's your onboarding experience for a consumer media flow: 1. Install a fox-faced browser extension 2. Write down a 24 word seed phrase and hide it under your fridge (btw now some romanian dude's gonna break int your house) 3. Select a chain if god willing you understand what that means 4. Go find a bridge (Wormhole, LayerZero, ...) if you guessed wrong 5. Sign hexadecimal strings with very scary error messages 6. "Transaction pending... would you like to increase your gas price" (wtf is gas? they'll say) Thats is before you even fund the thing. But I'm not done, on ramps were even worse. If you wanted to use some "web3 media" app, you had to open an exchange account. The UI looked like DraftKings for slop-maxxed decentralization jargon. Spin the wheel to get decentralized compute coin on Arbitrum or turbo DNS coin on Polkadot! Last cycle nonsense. Before you buy anything you need to go through a rigorous KYC process. SSN, address, Drivers License verification, transfer to your mobile device, liveness check on your face, transfer back, "a human in a remote country will check this asynchronously and we'll get back to you". Now we sign into Plaid, put our bank credentials into some random form on this new DraftKing exchange, now they can auto-draw down money. Perfect. Now god willing you've found UDSC and bought it on the right chain. You're ready to transfer out. You paste in your 40-character Hex address to the fox-head app. That'll be 24-48 hours before it arrives due to ACH fraud risk. Aaaand now you can use the web3 media app. And KYB on ramps for enterprises? Rectal inspection. I need not go deeper. Consumer apps are viral flywheels. If there's too much friction on the axle, the flywheel never spins. Crypto had superglue on the flywheel. So when we say "the market rejected consumer crypto," we should ask a basic question. Did we ever actually ship it in a form that normal people could evaluate. Finance worked because the users were willing to tolerate absurd friction. Traders will jump through flaming hoops when their perceived EV is +infinite (because they're a genius and have alpha or astrology signals or whatever). Media and other consumer activities do not get that tolerance budget. Now enough with the pessimism of the past. Let's fast forward to today (or next 3 mo). - Embedded wallets are real - OAuth style onboarding is real - Headless custody is real - In app onramps are real - Stablecoin onramps are real (this is a distinct thing and is critically important and I don't have time to explain in this post) - KYB capable providers are emerging Privy. Bridge. Stripe. Zerohash. Coinbases' new stack. This stuff is recent. Widely usable versions are maybe two years old. Broad developer adoption is even newer. For the first time you can do something like: - Sign in with email - Wallet created under the hood - Buy stablecoins inside the app - Transact instantly No exchange account, no raffle spinny wheels for decentralized slop, no fox icon, no seed phrase under your fridge. That stack did not exist in a usable form when most of the "consumer experiments" were run. After teh blood sweat and tears out of the L1 engineers, L2 engineers, the cryptographers, the wallet teams, the exchange teams, the compliance teams, and the onramp providers, we are finally getting something that resembles a sane consumer stack. We are just getting the grease. That does not mean consumer crypto is inevitable. It does mean we are only now in a position to run the experiment honestly. It's the best time to build in crypto, in the history of crypto. If it fails from here, with real UX and real onboarding and real distribution, then fine. I'll eat my shoe. Call it dead.

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Devin Baker retweeté
Yat Siu
Yat Siu@ysiu·
Respectfully disagree. The defining property of blockchain is digital ownership which makes it possible to own your digital assets, create new forms of digital art and human expression, scale IP formation and protection (NFTs), self-sovereign IDs, governance systems (eg. voting), Supply chain traceability or even @dominic_w reply on on-chain cloud, the initial vision of the world computer etc. the list goes on. Blockchain allows for digital ownership through which financialization is possible but it is not its core purpose. Its core purpose is the evolution of a sovereign truly decentralized internet in which all of us can own a stake in it. While that has the clear potential for financial value it is not its core purpose because it would imply that the core human purpose is finance. It is not, and if we keep framing it that way, we will continue to struggle on our path to mass-adoption, because people are complex and finance for most of us is a means to an end, not an end in itself. When you scale tech and innovate there are no misadventures, there are lessons and continued experimentation. Gaming and NFTs are far from dead but there are lessons there that have evolved since, same is true for Meme coins, DAOs and many other experiments that will continue to evolve and grow. As always things are never one size fits all especially because we're Human. Capitalism is only possible with property rights and blockchains enable digital property rights so there is no doubt that finance is a key powerful reasons but it is so much more than that. George Washington put it best; Freedom and Property Rights are inseparable. You can’t have one without the other. To us that’s the core purpose of a decentralized, blockchain-powered internet: to secure our digital property rights and the freedoms that flow from them, with financialization as one critically important expression of that.
Lily Liu@calilyliu

Blockchains have always been and always will be tech for finance. Their core purpose is financialization. That’s why architecting a chain to protect unification of liquidity is more important than practically anything else. I am happy the misadventures around things like gaming in particular are fully dead and over. More broadly, I felt the “read write own” / web3 articulation was too skeuomorphic and, frankly, intellectually lazy to transpire because new tech is never as simple as putting something on a blockchain and voila. You have to create new markets. This narrative functioned more as a fig leaf for a reason to put VC dollars into more unnecessary infrastructure to rationalize a desire to create a private asset that could become magical internet money. The more folks that launched projects to attract price based on selling a narrative to the wild Wild West of internet liquidity, the harder the legitimizing narrative machine worked to ascribe value to all this as the third coming of apps - “all the stuff you do today, but now it pays you” In reality, the opportunity is immense, and bigger than our most creative minds can imagine, but not as it’s been articulated over the last few years. This blockchain adventure has always been about finance: open financial rails for anyone and everyone on the internet. This makes it newly possible for capital formation and internet formation to happen anywhere in the world, and for the ensuing innovation and progress to take hold. Open finance enables greater economic freedom and with it individual sovereignty and agency.

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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
Fortunately the work in the "middle" is becoming - counter-intuitively - more human. 200 years ago, the "middle" was tilling your land so that you could eat. Now, the "middle" is figuring out what matters, why, and how we live it. This is evolution - and it's a good thing.
Will Manidis@WillManidis

x.com/i/article/2019…

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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
5/ 2026 outlook Our conviction in the long-term thesis remains intact. Geopolitics has been the dominant risk factor. Even when we get the broader macro call right, a single headline can spark the fire of market corrections. In a world more volatile than ever, with a President more volatile than ever, this idiosyncratic risk is real and difficult to model. Beyond geopolitics, crypto faced several structural headwinds in 2025. Lots of early crypto holders who sat on massive holdings over the past decade took advantage of liquidity that was now deep enough (with ETFs and massive institutions now embedded into crypto markets) to realize their gains. Reaching key psychological price levels - like $100K Bitcoin - exacerbated this. Token unlock schedules from last cycle’s crypto projects created persistent selling pressure. Still-elevated rates continued to keep friction working against long-duration risk assets. Narratives also shifted. Gold captured the debasement trade, with sovereigns’ gold hoarding further fueled by a global shift away from the American dollar complex as the US firmly stepped into a process of decoupling from the globalist economic paradigm. And AI captured the growth trade. Our base case for 2026 is that it becomes the year that we expected 2025 to be. Despite facing structural headwinds in 2025, we see tailwinds building. Stablecoin market cap grew throughout 2025 even as prices fell. DeFi protocols worked seamlessly during October's flash crash while centralized venues had malfunctions. Regulatory clarity is being cemented, with the GENIUS Act passed in July and the CLARITY Act in the Senate after passing in the House. And the infrastructure our thesis depends on - sub-penny fees, near-instant finality - is finally here. At the same time, a plethora of macro signals are converging. Global liquidity continues to rise. The USD is down 10% from the beginning of 2025, Treasury yields are down more than 0.5%, and oil is down 20%, continuing to ease financial conditions. Bitcoin - and crypto broadly - is the sole major risk asset not tracking this recovery. We believe October 10th was a market structure break - the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history ($20B in 24 hours) - that sparked a deviation from the underlying trend, not a regime change. The macro signals point to dramatic recovery. Crypto prices reflect fear. Importantly, alarm bells like credit spreads and bond volatility are calm. If recession were on the horizon, these alarm bells would be ringing. Real-time inflation measures like Truflation are falling, keeping the Fed engaged in their path towards more neutral (read: lower) rates and preserving the liquidity backdrop. We see a structural setup heading into 2026 that is much better than the price action suggests. Unless recession materializes - which is not our base case - the setup for 2026 is more attractive than it was entering 2025. Crypto-specific headwinds are priced in. Macro alignment is strengthening. The gap between price and fundamentals is wide. Either crypto knows something the rest of the market doesn't, or there's a gap that will slam closed. Decision-making under uncertainty requires probabilistic views, not absolute ones. A summary of our current framework for 2026 is as follows, with a more comprehensive version included further below: - Bear case (20%): Recession, re-inflation, or further geopolitical chaos. Bitcoin $50K-$100K. Alts down more. - Base case (50%): Modest disinflation, stable conditions, no major shocks. Bitcoin $100K-$150K. Alts outperform. - Bull case (30%): Liquidity accelerates, USD weakens further, PMIs climb. Bitcoin $150K-$300K. Material alt season. These frameworks guide positioning - and we're skewed constructive. Lead dominos we're watching - USD strength/weakness - 2Y Treasury yield - 10Y real yield - Global liquidity - High-yield credit spreads Key downside risks - Geopolitical or economic policy shocks induce further fear and chaos, leading to a risk-off flight to safety. - Financial conditions tighten, driving liquidity contraction (USD strengthens, inflation accelerates, rates increase, QT/liquidity withdrawals return). - The real economy doesn’t accelerate (e.g., PMIs stay below 50 and/or contract). Key upside catalysts - Geopolitical or economic policy further stabilizes. - Financial conditions ease further, driving liquidity expansion (USD weakens, inflation approaches 2% target, rates fall, QE/liquidity injections accelerate). - The real economy accelerates (e.g., PMIs climb into the 50s/towards 60).
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Devin Baker
Devin Baker@devbakes·
1/ Some excerpts shared with our investors in our annual letter. Very timely amidst the widespread panic. Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers. We still believe in the opportunity ahead. The big picture: Our vision of the future We see a world where some of the most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies. Innovations like language, writing, money, legal codes, democracy, capitalism, the limited liability company, the printing press, railroads, the telegraph, the internet - to name a few - expanded the trajectory and possibilities of humanity in a continual process of progress. At its core, crypto is a coordination technology. And we believe that crypto is another one of these paradigm-shifting forces - one that will touch many parts of our world, from community and culture to capital. Crypto gives us new tools to coordinate human, financial, and technological capital more effectively - enabling humans to do what we do best: imagine and paint the vision of a better future, muster resources behind that vision, and act to make it real. By reducing the friction of coordination, crypto amplifies the impact of harnessing all that's necessary to build together. It blows open the surface area of what's possible. And it does so while simultaneously promoting values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy. These world-changing outcomes don't just happen overnight. This vision demands a multi-year, multi-decade time horizon. This long gaze doesn’t just guide where we’re going - it also guides how we respond to the inevitable turbulence along the way. It is this vision, and this time horizon, that inspire the work we do at Comma.
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