Dan Rothem

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Dan Rothem

Dan Rothem

@drothem

Baseball and politics | some other cool stuff | policy analyst @IsraelPolicy4m | baseball analyst @sport5il | opinions mine, or somebody else’s | RT ≠ 🤗

Earth, for now. Inscrit le Ağustos 2009
1.8K Abonnements855 Abonnés
Dan Rothem retweeté
Firas Maksad
Firas Maksad@FirasMaksad·
Significant 🇱🇧 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 1/ #Lebanon and #Israel are likely to announce a cease-fire after rare direct talks between their representatives in Washington on Tuesday. A cease-fire to salvage Hezbollah is a key #Iran demand for negotiations with the US to continue. The framing will be important.
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Dan Rothem
Dan Rothem@drothem·
"...During the period from 1992 to 1996, Itamar Rabinovich was Israel's ambassador to Washington, and the chief negotiator with Syria. In this book, he looks back at the course of negotiations, terms of which were known to a surprisingly small group of American, Israeli, and Syrian officials..."
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Aaron David Miller
Aaron David Miller@aarondmiller2·
Given the level of the negotiators -- Ambassadors all --and the apparent lack of urgency, (next week)these talks are likely largely performative. The big question --will Trump press Netanyahu to stand down in Lebanon -- will be answered in a different conversation🙂
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨A senior Israeli official says the direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will begin next week. The first meeting will take place at the State Department in Washington. The U.S. side will be led by the Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa. Israel will be represented by its Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter. The Lebanese side will be represented by its Ambassador to Washington Nada Hamadeh-Moawad

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Dan Rothem retweeté
Gabriel Epstein
Gabriel Epstein@GabrielEpsteinX·
A few questions about format and scope of these (welcome) talks: Ambassador-level seems too low unless each is empowered by their leadership to make hard choices or directly represents the leader. The latter might be true in the case of Amb. Leiter as a stand-in for longtime Netanyahu emissary Ron Dermer, but very unclear for the others. Is this to see if there is enough potential to warrant higher-level negotiations, an attempt to limit scope and retain control of the issue set, or a way to play for time? Has anything fundamentally changed in the Lebanese state's will to disarm Hezbollah in a meaningful way? Without such a shift (and political or material support to back it up from Arab states), meaningful progress doesn't seem likely. How broad will the issue set be? Disarmament, IDF withdrawals, and some sort of formal or informal (like a U.S.-Israel side letter) understanding on Israeli freedom of action vis-a-vis Hezbollah seems likely, but what about land border demarcation, diplomatic relations (at a very low level), or planning for a continued diplomatic process after a ceasefire, should one be successfully negotiated?
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨A senior Israeli official says the direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will begin next week. The first meeting will take place at the State Department in Washington. The U.S. side will be led by the Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa. Israel will be represented by its Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter. The Lebanese side will be represented by its Ambassador to Washington Nada Hamadeh-Moawad

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Dan Rothem
Dan Rothem@drothem·
🎸 @HansZimmer + noise canceling headphones in Israel (2026 edition): 🎧 Cons: can't hear sirens. 🚨 🚀 Pros: if I'm going out, I'm going out to the @Interstellar suite. 🪐🧑‍🚀🌠
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Dan Rothem retweeté
Israel Policy Forum
Israel Policy Forum@IsraelPolicy4m·
However the war with Iran ends, the U.S. must at least ensure that it defangs Iran’s nuclear program. A focused nuclear-only deal would be a bitter pill, but it is the most feasible path forward, @mkoplow writes in this week's Koplow Column. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/03/31/jud…
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Israel Policy Forum
Israel Policy Forum@IsraelPolicy4m·
The Iran war has shifted focus from Gaza: a post-ceasefire “negative equilibrium” of low-level conflict, Hamas/IDF consolidation, and constant aid needs. Status quo preferences, disputes, and distracted mediators have stalled progress. israelpolicyforum.org/gaza-in-the-sh…
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Dan Rothem retweeté
Israel Policy Forum
Israel Policy Forum@IsraelPolicy4m·
The Iran war has worsened pressures in the West Bank: accelerating settlement expansion/legalization, surging settler violence, mass Palestinian displacement, and bureaucratic moves toward de facto annexation. israelpolicyforum.org/the-west-bank-…
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Dan Rothem retweeté
(((Michael Koplow)))
(((Michael Koplow)))@mkoplow·
"Shadowy Jews and Israelis deceived the president so now we are at war" is precisely what I expect from an antisemitic conspiracy theorist. Fine to resign a job over principles, but there is nothing brave or admirable about darkly blaming Jews on your way out the door. Trump had many reasons to go to war, and Israel is clearly on board. Claiming that he doesn't realize what he's doing is dumb, and pinning the whole thing on an Israeli and Jewish psyop is vile.
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Dan Rothem retweeté
(((Michael Koplow)))
(((Michael Koplow)))@mkoplow·
We are in the high point of U.S.-Israel relations, as the two operate hand in hand against Iran. But this unprecedented cooperation, made possible by Trump, is almost inevitably going to lead directly to the U.S.-Israel relationship being degraded israelpolicyforum.org/2026/03/04/the…
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Dan Rothem retweeté
Israel Policy Forum
Israel Policy Forum@IsraelPolicy4m·
The joint U.S.-Israel war against Iran may neutralize Israel's greatest national security threat. But it also has the potential to imperil Israel's greatest national security asset: its relationship with the U.S., argues @mkoplow in this Koplow Column. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/03/04/the…
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Dan Rothem
Dan Rothem@drothem·
My rapid reaction: From Israel’s perspective, the joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran continues a long campaign to dismantle a core strategic—some argue existential—threat, with U.S. participation signaling real enforcement of red lines. If sustained, it could unlock deeper regional integration, but without a political strategy surrounding Gaza stabilization and a dramatic shift in West Bank dynamics, that window will close. Read more super-analysis by my @IsraelPolicy4m colleagues.
Israel Policy Forum@IsraelPolicy4m

U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran | Rapid Reactions Brief insight and analysis from our team of experts: @mkoplow, @RCBrandenburg, Amb. Michael Ratney, @drothem, @TheFarahBdour, and @GarrettNada. Read here: ipf.li/us-israel-iran…

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Dan Rothem retweeté
Firas Maksad
Firas Maksad@FirasMaksad·
Add Jordan to the list of Arab countries attacked by #Iran’s ballistic missiles today. Key question- will Jordan & the GCC lift restrictions on US offensive operations from their territories? Possible, but for GCC that would risk retaliation against energy infrastructure.
Dana Zureikat Daoud دانا زريقات@DanaZkat

STATEMENT: #Jordan strongly condemned today the Iranian attack on its territory involving ballistic missiles, as well as the attacks targeting the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait. In an official statement, the @ForeignMinistry affirmed that Jordan will continue to take all necessary measures to safeguard the security of its citizens and to protect its sovereignty and national security. The Ministry reiterated Jordan’s unwavering solidarity with these countries and its firm support in the face of any aggression that threatens their sovereignty, security, or stability. The statement further emphasized that Jordan will continue to work closely with regional partners and international allies to de-escalate tensions and strengthen security and stability across the region. The Ministry underscored the importance of restraint and reaffirmed that diplomatic solutions and dialogue remain the only viable path to resolving crises and preserving regional peace and stability. 🇯🇴

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Dan Rothem
Dan Rothem@drothem·
7/ The objective isn't a temporary or symbolic “defeat” but rather a single, legitimate Palestinian monopoly on force in Gaza. For more, read @IsraelPolicy4m’s new report – co-authored with the relentless @CelineTouboul, who manages to be both the frighteningly sharpest mind in the room and the unstoppable engine behind this issue. I learned a ton, and rewrote my drafts more times than I'd like to admit, thanks to her. israelpolicyforum.org/disarming-hama…
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Dan Rothem
Dan Rothem@drothem·
6/ Legitimacy is the center of gravity. If disarmament is seen as imposed by Israel, it will be resisted and unsustainable. But if it is framed as an internal reorganization of Palestinian governance – backed by Arab states and the U.S. – it can gather legitimacy. Durable demilitarization requires Palestinian ownership, regional backing, credible enforcement and a political context that provides meaning. Without legitimacy, guns go underground.
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Dan Rothem
Dan Rothem@drothem·
1/ Disarming Hamas is not just a military question. It’s a legitimacy challenge. Here’s what that means –and what might actually work. 🧵
Israel Policy Forum@IsraelPolicy4m

To prevent a return to war, Gaza must be demilitarized. Our new policy report by @drothem and @CelineTouboul lays out the most durable path to do so: a Palestinian-led disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration campaign to disarm Hamas. israelpolicyforum.org/disarming-hama…

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