Saagar Enjeti
13.8K posts
@esaagar
girl dad. host of Breaking Points
Q: "Why didn't you tell U.S. allies…about the war before attacking Iran?" President Trump: "We wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"
I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…
“They are gonna try and destroy this man.” Saagar Enjeti says Republicans will come after Joe Kent for resigning and saying Israel got the U.S. into war with Iran for nothing. “This is the National Director of Counterterrorism, highest security clearance in the entire United States government.” “I guarantee you they will try to indict him.” “They’re gonna say he breached his security clearance by sharing information, that he was never a real patriot, that he’s a snake, that he’s an anti-Semite.” “The full stop of the pro-war machine and the US government are going to try and destroy this man.” “Just watch and wait.” “This should be wall-to-wall news.” “We never even really had high-profile resignations like this under Iraq.” “And I mean, I think the fact that you have a high-level security official with the top security clearance saying this is Israel’s war, that they manipulated the intelligence… you have to ask seriously about all of the lies that have been told by this White House.” “And I think second, what did he know to have to resign at this point?” “He knew no end in sight.” “And that’s why he decided to do it now.” @esaagar @joekent16jan19
QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar
🚨MAGA support for war sliding, vast majority want Trump to declare victory and go home. Voters under 50 driving the trends. NEW QI/TAC polling today. responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-war-maga/
Donald Trump was overwhelmingly elected by the American people to be our President and Commander in Chief. As our Commander in Chief, he is responsible for determining what is and is not an imminent threat, and whether or not to take action he deems necessary to protect the safety and security of our troops, the American people and our country. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence is responsible for helping coordinate and integrate all intelligence to provide the President and Commander in Chief with the best information available to inform his decisions. After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.
We are watching a high stakes narrative battle where the Pentagon brass is trying desperately to convey the narrative that Trump was fully briefed on all the worst case scenarios This is not fully true: They tepidly warned of what could happen but painted a very rosy picture
NEW: President Donald Trump WAS warned that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against U.S. Gulf allies — despite his claims on Monday that Tehran's reaction came as a surprise sources w/knowledge of U.S. intelligence tell @JonathanLanday @ErinBanco @phildstewart
Diesel— lifeblood of the US freight, agriculture and construction industries— is above $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022.
