fxevolution
5K posts

fxevolution
@fxevolution
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We’ve been saying that as long as the VIX is hanging out below its 10-day moving average, markets tend to stay calm. That’s what’s kept us long through this monster rally, and it’s still our go-to for spotting risk early. Annualized S&P 500 returns... ...when VIX is below its 10-DMA: 2025 YTD: +60% Last 5 years: +26% ...when VIX is above its 10-DMA: 2025 YTD: -42% Last 5 years: +4%

Rolling 30-day flows across all Bitcoin ETFs — which we usually lean on to spot tactical tops — have flipped sharply positive, reaching their strongest levels since October after spending months deep in negative territory. We wrote about this in our Monday note (link in reply).













