sirmoco

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sirmoco

@sirmoco

Eat the rich. Dissolve pax americana.

Portugal Inscrit le Kasım 2023
408 Abonnements72 Abonnés
sirmoco retweeté
Hassan Ahmadian حسن احمدیان
Iran attacks damaged 16 US installations in the region—the majority of US positions in the region—and some of them are vertically unusable now!
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
Every weekend half my feed expects a sudden breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and the other half expects a sharp resumption of bombings. Of course, the most likely outcome is that absolutely nothing changes and we do this again next week, down another ~100 million barrels in global stocks.
GIF
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sirmoco@sirmoco·
@pepball112 @citrinowicz What are the main reasons for the current nuke owning countries to have not used them yet, do you think?
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cityball
cityball@pepball112·
@sirmoco @citrinowicz a nuke on ppl like this is totally impossible to even imagine the stuff of nightmares lol ppl who believe in holy fatwas and bringing the mahdi by nuking isreal who chant death to America in Parliament daily the world is concerned only far left & Islamists are not which are you
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Today, Iran is ruled by an ultra-hardline regime that possesses close to a ton of enriched uranium including roughly 440 kilograms enriched to 60%. We have now seen firsthand that there is no purely kinetic (military) solution to this problem. This reality is a direct result of the belief that Iran’s nuclear program could be eliminated through force alone. Had Iran remained in the nuclear agreement, many second-order effects, impossible to fully quantify, might have unfolded: the strengthening of more pragmatic political elements, greater engagement with the West, and internal dynamics moving in a different direction. Instead, the withdrawal from the deal led us to the opposite outcome: a more extreme regime, far closer to a nuclear weapon, operating with reduced oversight and fewer constraints, and with a much shorter path to weapons-grade enrichment. This is the reality we face today. And it is the strategic failure that followed the decision to leave the agreement. The most striking conclusion, however, is this: if the goal is to push Iran back into a framework that includes reducing or removing its enriched uranium stockpile and restoring meaningful oversight, we will have to return to the same basic logic of the original nuclear deal, meaning limits on the program in exchange for economic relief. There is no alternative mechanism that has proven viable. The past 39 days of conflict have made that reality unmistakably clear: military force can disrupt, delay, and degrade, but it cannot replace a diplomatic framework when it comes to controlling and rolling back a nuclear program of this scale. Therefore, the decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement stands as one of the most consequential strategic mistakes in the campaign against Iran. Its effects are not theoretical, they are the reality we are living with today. And they will continue to shape the security landscape, with costs that are not only ongoing, but likely to grow in the years ahead. #IranWar
Andrea Stricker@StrickerNonpro

This merits a response. JCPOA proponents always focus on the enriched uranium stockpile and not its underlying infrastructure, which the JCPOA freed up to expand — legally and massively — starting in 2024, following sunsetting arms and missile restrictions in 2020 and 2023. Under the JCPOA, Iran was always permitted to engage in R&D on advanced centrifuges and to deploy them starting in 2024. Just a few hundred advanced centrifuges are sufficient for a secret enrichment plant to go to weapons-grade uranium. At what point in this timeline would Iran diplomatically renegotiate? After Oct. 2025, when it would have been freed from the enrichment suspension and have no incentive to do so? That same year when it would be allowed to legally import anything it desired for its nuclear program? But let's say the JCPOA was still intact. In 2020 and 2023: • UN conventional arms embargo on imports to and exports from Iran lapsed (Oct. 2020); • Select UN-sponsored visa bans on Iranian officials lifted; • UN-sponsored ban on imports/exports of missile-related equipment and technology expired (Oct. 2023); • UN prohibition on Iranian ballistic missile launches ended; • U.S. and EU/UK sanctions on select proliferation-linked entities lapsed; • UN-sponsored asset freezes on select entities terminated; Iran's permitted activities from 2024-2026: • Up to 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges would have been allowed to enrich at Natanz; 1,044 IR-1s held idle at Fordow; • Tests with up to 30 IR-6 and 30 IR-8 centrifuges would have been permitted; manufacture of up to 200 IR-6 and 200 IR-8 per year - without rotors - would have been allowed; • JCPOA procurement channel would have dissolved, removing oversight of nuclear-related imports; • Past UNSC resolutions related to Iran's nuclear program would have terminated - in particular, the demand for a suspension of enrichment and reprocessing; • "Snapback" mechanism to restore international sanctions would have expired Oct. 18, 2025. From 2027-2029: • 2,500-3,500 IR-2m or IR-4 centrifuges would have been installed at Natanz - output potentially exceeding all 5,060 permitted IR-1s; • IR-8 infrastructure would have been installed at Natanz; rotors fitted to stockpiled IR-6 and IR-8 machines under IAEA monitoring; • Uranium tests in cascades of up to 150 IR-6 and 84 IR-8 would have been permitted. By 2029: • No further limits on advanced centrifuge manufacture or enrichment would have applied; • Up to 1,200 IR-6 and 1,200 IR-8 centrifuges could have been stockpiled by this date; • Breakout time would have been reduced to weeks or less - Iran would have been a de facto nuclear threshold state. By 2031: • No cap on enrichment purity level or enriched uranium stockpile would have applied; • Enrichment at Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant would have been permitted; new enrichment plants permitted; • Plutonium reprocessing prohibition would have been lifted; heavy water reactors permitted; no cap on heavy water production or stockpiling; • No limits on centrifuge types or quantities would have remained; • Powered by a fully deployed fleet of advanced centrifuges, Iran would have faced near-zero breakout time - able to produce weapons-grade uranium within days In fact, the JCPOA was a very specific plan to progressively allow a state sponsor of terrorism and growing threat to the U.S., Israel, and their allies to enrich uranium legally and on an industrial scale with zero breakout time! Instead, thanks to military strikes: • These thresholds were never reached. • The JCPOA was formally terminated Oct. 18, 2025. • Iran is not enriching uranium for the first time in nearly 20 years. • No functioning enrichment facilities, feedstock production, or accessible enriched uranium stockpile currently exist. • Strikes have eliminated Iran's entire enrichment fuel supply chain: the Isfahan uranium conversion facility that produced UF6 feedstock has been destroyed; the Isfahan tunnel enrichment plant under construction has been struck and buried; the centrifuge manufacturing base that would have built the advanced machines has been demolished; and the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow that would have run them have been severely damaged or rendered inaccessible. • Without UF6 feedstock, functioning centrifuges, or operational enrichment halls, Iran cannot produce the enriched uranium fuel required for a nuclear weapon. • The uranium metal conversion and fuel fabrication lines at Isfahan - essential for fashioning enriched material into weapon cores - have also been eliminated. • Iran's plutonium pathway has been closed by strikes on the Arak reactor. • UN resolutions once again prohibit enrichment and reprocessing. The near-zero breakout timeline has been foreclosed. • Snapback restored all UN prohibitions on Iran's imports of arms and missiles. And most importantly, the United States and its allies are no longer bribing Tehran with sanctions relief and other incentives to directly augment its threat capacity — they instead eliminated the great majority of these threats militarily.

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sirmoco
sirmoco@sirmoco·
@pepball112 @citrinowicz So your argument is that Iran having nukes is a problem because they are a revolutionary theocratic dictatorship who hang ppl from cranes? You are aware that the countries who currently own nukes are no saints? Are they a problem too?
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António Guterres
António Guterres@antonioguterres·
The longer the Strait of Hormuz is choked, the higher the cost to humanity. My message is clear: Open the Strait. Let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again.
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محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf
If you build two walls, one from NYC to the West Coast and another from LA to the East Coast, the total length will be 7,755 km, which is still about 1,000 km short of Iran’s total borders. Good luck blockading a country with those borders😁 P.S. For Pete Hegseth: 1 km = 0.62 mi
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf tweet media
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Babak
Babak@ChronicBabak·
Obama slow walks JCPOA sanction relief despite Iranian compliance Trump tears up JCPOA Biden fails to re-enter JCPOA Trump bombs Iran during negations Trump bombs Iran during negations again Robin Brooks: how do you bring Iran to the negotiating table in good faith?? smfh
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks

@RKelanic What's your alternative to a blockade if you want to bring Iran to the negotiating table in good faith?

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Financial Times
Breaking news: ExxonMobil and Chevron have defied calls from the White House to increase oil production, resisting pressure from an administration that is struggling to end the biggest energy crisis in decades. ft.trib.al/dVi4ll3
Financial Times tweet media
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هنر جنگ
هنر جنگ@dolfiniran·
۱۶:۱۶/ ۱۱ اردیبهشت سنتکام یک طرح عملیات محدود به ترامپ ارائه کرده است. این طرح شامل یک حمله چند روزه است که امریکا تصور می کند می تواند آن را در زمان محدود خاتمه بدهد. هدف امریکا ایجاد اختلال مجدد در سیستم رهبری و ارائه خدمات عمومی در ایران است. ایران اجازه محدود ماندن هیچ جنگی را نخواهد داد و در دوران آتش بس شگفتی های زیادی برای تداوم نبرد آماده کرده است.
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sirmoco
sirmoco@sirmoco·
@SICNoticias Quem votou neste panhonha é que podia desenterrar a cabeça da areia e pensar muito bem em quem vai apoiar nas próximas legislativas. Eleitores do PSD só trazem problemas para todos os outros portugueses.
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SIC Notícias
SIC Notícias@SICNoticias·
Luís Montenegro garante não "meter a cabeça na areia" face aos problemas económicos #Echobox=1777554117" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">sicnoticias.pt/hotfolder-vide…
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sirmoco retweeté
João Ferreira
João Ferreira@joao_ferreira33·
Na reunião de câmara de hoje todas as perguntas ficaram sem resposta. O que parece é. Haja indignação, haja protesto. Ou não ficarão por aqui a desbaratar o que é de todos para alimentar clientelas e uma minoria privilegiada.
João Ferreira@joao_ferreira33

Empresa cujo dono ajudou o presidente da Câmara a ser eleito organiza evento comercial no espaço público. Entradas a 150-300€. Empresa é isentada do pagamento de taxas devidas pela ocupação de espaço público e a Câmara ainda oferece 75.000€ para compor o evento com um concerto.

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sirmoco@sirmoco·
@antonioguterres Não está na hora de te reformares e deixar de trabalhar para os EUA e Israel? Calado eras poeta.
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António Guterres
António Guterres@antonioguterres·
I’m deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights & freedoms in the area of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing & food markets & strangling the global economy. All of humanity is paying the price. Consider these three scenarios: 1: Restrictions are lifted today Supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices Global economic growth will drop from 3.4%to 3.1%. Global inflation – which had been declining – will climb from 3.8% to 4.4%. 2: Disruption drags on through midyear Growth falls to 2.5%. Inflation hits 5.4%. 32 million people are pushed into poverty. Fertilizers run low, and crops yields fall short. 45 million more people will face extreme hunger. 3: Severe disruptions persist through the end of the year Inflation skyrockets past 6%. Growth plummets to 2%. Immense suffering takes hold, especially among the world’s most vulnerable populations. We confront the spectre of a global recession – with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability.
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Seyed Abbas Araghchi
Seyed Abbas Araghchi@araghchi·
The Pentagon is lying. Netanyahu's gamble has directly cost America $100b so far, four times what is claimed. Indirect costs for U.S. taxpayers are FAR higher. Monthly bill for each American household is $500 and rising fast. Israel First always means America Last.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi tweet mediaSeyed Abbas Araghchi tweet media
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Trita Parsi
Trita Parsi@tparsi·
Iran’s latest AI Lego video marks a significant pivot. Instead of taunting the US military, it reflects a new chapter in which Tehran will seek peace by reaching out directly to the American people, bypassing the US government. It's a mirror image of the US strategy of the past decades. Some of the lines are quite noteworthy and will likely resonate with the anti-establishment sentiments prevailing among American youth in particular: "I love the constitution, the way it was meant. But not the way your leaders bypass consent..."
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Trita Parsi
Trita Parsi@tparsi·
If you watch these militant Pahlavi supporters, marching as an army in a manner reminiscent of Hitler's brown shirts, and you have the audacity to doubt their ironclad commitment to democracy and freedom, you must be a supporter of the Islamic Republic. Clearly. (sarcasm)
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