Allen

20.1K posts

Allen

Allen

@AllenPRC

Hong Kong शामिल हुए Ocak 2017
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Gordon G. Chang
Gordon G. Chang@GordonGChang·
Want to win this war? Make China pay. Want to lose the war? Keep trying to work with China. China is our enemy.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

BREAKING: An Iranian ballistic missile guided by Chinese BeiDou satellites, fuelled by Chinese sodium perchlorate, precisely navigated by Chinese gyroscopic sensors, and fabricated on production lines equipped with Chinese SMIC tools just struck the Neot Hovav industrial zone south of Beersheba. Israel’s largest chemical and hazardous waste complex. Nineteen plants. Adama. Teva Pharmaceutical. Israel Chemicals. A warehouse is burning. Route 40 closed. No injuries. No hazmat release. Fire contained. Four countries built that missile. One country appears at every layer of the supply chain. The same country that processes 85 to 90 percent of the rare earth magnets inside the Arrow interceptor that was fired to stop it. The missile cost Iran between $200,000 and $500,000. The Arrow 3 interceptor that attempted to stop it cost $2 to $4 million. If THAAD was fired, $13 to $15 million. If a Gulf state Patriot battery engaged a Shahed in the same wave, $4 million to stop a $20,000 drone. The cost ratio runs 5 to 1 at the lowest. 200 to 1 at the highest. The defender pays more to stop the weapon than the attacker pays to build it. Every single time. BeiDou is the variable that makes this ratio lethal. Before Chinese satellite integration, Iranian ballistic missiles relied on pure inertial navigation with a circular error probable of 500 to 1,000 metres. With BeiDou-3 hybrid guidance, the CEP drops to 50 to 200 metres. The missile that hit Neot Hovav did not land in the desert. It landed in a 19-plant chemical complex. BeiDou did not make the missile more expensive. It made the same cheap missile accurate enough to force the defender to fire the expensive interceptor every time. The cost of the offence stayed flat. The cost of the defence compounded. The Pentagon burned $5.6 billion in munitions in 48 hours. Israel has fired hundreds of Arrows since February 28, exceeding $1 billion in interception costs. The US requests $200 billion in supplemental funding. Iran’s total offensive expenditure: an estimated $200 million. $200 billion to stop $200 million. A 1,000 to 1 ratio at the strategic level. China is on both sides of the ledger. Chinese BeiDou makes the Iranian missile accurate enough to force interception. Chinese rare earth magnets make the interceptor that fires to stop it. Chinese SMIC tools build the production lines that fabricate the guidance chips. Chinese sodium perchlorate fuels the propellant. Every missile that forces an interception depletes an Arrow that contains Chinese rare earth magnets that are under export restrictions that China controls. The attacker’s supply chain and the defender’s supply chain route through the same country. The country profits from both the missile and the interceptor. The country that makes the offence possible also makes the defence expensive. This is not a war between Iran and Israel. This is a cost function. The cost function has one variable on the offence side: China. And one variable on the defence side: also China. The rare earth magnets in the Arrow motor. The BeiDou signal in the Emad guidance. Both made in the same country. Both consumed in the same exchange. One depleting the other. The war is a Chinese supply chain consuming itself at a ratio that bankrupts the defender before it exhausts the attacker. Neot Hovav is contained. No injuries. No hazmat. And none of that matters. The interceptor was fired. The stockpile shrank. The rare earth magnet was consumed. Tomorrow another BeiDou-guided missile will force another Arrow containing another Chinese magnet to fire at another ratio the defender cannot sustain. The IDF Chief said “collapse.” The interceptor stockpile says the same in a different currency. Both currencies route through Beijing. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Gordon G. Chang
Gordon G. Chang@GordonGChang·
Here’s the “job”: installing a government in Iran that is not trying to destroy the United States. To accomplish that, we must use all means at our disposal other than nuclear weapons. If we do not finish the task, the regime will just hit us again and again.
Richard N. Haass@RichardHaass

it is getting increasingly tiresome to read and hear calls to "finish the job" in Iran absent any serious discussion of what the job is and how it is to be accomplished with military force.

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Gordon G. Chang
Gordon G. Chang@GordonGChang·
Support our troops. Fight the Iran war to win, not to obtain a draw and not anger China.
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Allen
Allen@AllenPRC·
@GordonGChang Is that a « public trial » without evidence? But, that is very you, Gordie..
GIF
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Gordon G. Chang
Gordon G. Chang@GordonGChang·
China’s “Professor Jiang” is almost certainly run by the Communist Party. #CCP
UnveiledChina@Unveiled_ChinaX

Lets talk “Professor Jiang” and why is he suddenly everywhere? Who is he? The man behind the “Predictive History” channel is Jiang Xueqin (江学勤). He is not a tenured professor at a major Chinese university, but an educator who has taught at international schools in China and has been involved in curriculum development and writing. The “professor” label used online is, at best, loosely applied. His YouTube channel “Predictive History” has grown rapidly, producing polished English-language geopolitical content for a global audience. Here’s where it gets interesting. YouTube is officially blocked in mainland China. Yet his content is consistently uploaded, high production quality, and clearly targeted at Western viewers. That does not prove anything on its own, but it does raise a basic structural question about how and from where this operation is run. Now look at the messaging. Across videos, the themes are highly consistent: - U.S. decline is inevitable - China’s system is more stable and long-term oriented - Western alliances are weak or hypocritical - A China-led multipolar world is both natural and preferable These positions closely mirror narratives promoted by the Chinese Communist Party in its external messaging. At the same time, there is little to no direct criticism of Beijing on politically sensitive issues — something that is notable given how tightly speech is controlled inside China. So you end up with a pattern: A “professor” without a clear traditional academic footprint. Content produced for Western platforms that are blocked in China. Messaging that consistently aligns with state narratives. And growing visibility at a time when information competition is intensifying. None of this proves coordination. But it does raise a legitimate question: Is this simply an independent commentator who happens to align with Beijing’s worldview or part of a broader ecosystem shaping how China is understood abroad? And more importantly, how should audiences evaluate credibility when labels like “professor” are used so loosely in geopolitical discourse? #China #CCP #InformationWarfare #Geopolitics #MediaLiteracy #Influence #YouTube #Narratives

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Allen
Allen@AllenPRC·
@GordonGChang That is not a major loss.. this is..
Ayo-Elesho@Ayoelesho

Matt, let me educate you on the points you’ve raised: America is the richest country in the world today because it invades countries and pillages their resources to build its own. Not because Americans are more hardworking or smarter than anybody else, but because its government steals whatever it sets its sights on. The recent invasion of Venezuela and the theft of its oil are still fresh in the world’s memory. And even though you “left” Iraq after invading it in 2003 under the false claim of WMDs, the Iraqi people still do not have access to their oil wealth except as Washington allows. No, America is not the most powerful country in the world. China is. America only seems powerful because it is the most brutal empire to have existed since the inception of humanity. America sees nothing wrong with killing schoolchildren, carpet-bombing cities, and using nuclear weapons on its enemies. It is this brutality that makes Americans erroneously think America is powerful. True power is pragmatic, patient, and slow to resort to violence, qualities which America lacks. This is why, even though China is the most powerful country in the world, it has not invaded any neighbours, kidnapped or assassinated leaders of sovereign countries, or used force. It prefers to settle disputes diplomatically. And this is exactly why the world now looks to China as the leader of the free world. Finally, America is the most charitable country in the world because it costs it nothing to be charitable, but its charity doesn’t come free. The dollar system it has imposed on the world makes it seem charitable: it costs nothing to print dollars and distribute them to Global South countries in exchange for resources. When those countries refuse your dollars, you organise regime change by bribing dishonest dissidents in their governments. Unlike China, you never help poor countries develop infrastructure, because that would mean helping them grow, something your foreign policy despises. You only give them dollars printed for free, which end up in the pockets of your installed puppets. It is also why you can sponsor terrorism under the guise of charity through institutions like USAID. Don’t take my word for it, a US congressman revealed this. So, Matt, I advise you to learn more about your own country. You’d realise that even though you’re the richest, you live on stolen wealth, you are not the most powerful but only the most brutal, and your charity is not really charity but a terrorism-funding and regime-change ploy.

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Gordon G. Chang
Gordon G. Chang@GordonGChang·
Give President Trump what he needs to end the war.
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Allen
Allen@AllenPRC·
@ShangguanJiewen I don’t think he will as ending the war will definitely get him impeached…for starting it without proper reasons..
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Jason Smith - 上官杰文
Jason Smith - 上官杰文@ShangguanJiewen·
🚨Millions of people protesting against Trump, ICE, and the war on Iran. But will this change anything? Do you think Trump will dismissively ignore the people? Or will he actually end the war?
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