Knight

Poisson Distribution in Soccer Betting A 19th-century formula built for rare events (soldier deaths from horse kicks) is still one of the sharpest tools for predicting goals in soccer - and spotting +EV bets ＞Why Goals Follow Poisson: Every attack has a small but steady chance of becoming a goal, and attacks are mostly independent. The 2008/09 La Liga season data showed an almost perfect match with the model ＞What the Model Gets Right and Where It Falls Short: - It nails long-term probabilities: over a full 380-match Premier League season, the actual scorelines line up very closely with real results - It ignores: injuries, new signings, manager changes, weather, motivation, or cup games. Works best in stable leagues with at least one full season of data How to calculate Expected Goals & find your Edge - read the full article by @unvint

@polyfactual It seems to me that there will be no invasion!

Current odds prices on the US forces entering Iran are currently as follows, The April 30 resolution date market is probably the most interesting one to look at as the market is up 10c in the past 24 hrs alone. Interesting because this is coming off of the back of the news of the US sending 2.2k marines into the region, Although no confirmation of invasion Plus if the US are playing a full scale invasion on a country as large as Iran with 90m+ people, they’d require 100s of thousands of soldiers and as things stand, there are just under 50k US soldiers in the area. Nevertheless, still one to watch but the odds currently seem overpriced at 56c

@ludisyn1 🫡🤝

@KnightShift Tons of true learnings to share !

I’ve been deep in prediction markets for the past months. I didn’t come from crypto, I didn’t come from Twitter neither. The outsider lense makes me see how much noise there is in this field. It’s all about buzz words : vibe-coded tools, recycled takes, fake sophistication, engagement farming all dressed up as insights. But people fcking consume it. I’m there to document my journey into building products in the prediction market space, cutting the bullshit and trying to bring a few of the real insights I get by confronting myself to reality. Looking forward to start :)

@Polymarket Trump is acting as the main market maker, trying to bring down OIL volatility😃

JUST IN: Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is “relatively safe”

@Polymarket As you read this, about 150,000 drivers in 46 states are physically unable to start their cars. The irony is that they are completely sober.

BREAKING: Cyberattack against American breathalyzer test company locks out drivers across 45 states.

@syanovee Does anyone really believe that there can be a "YES"?

There’s a free 4% on "Iran won’t legalize gay marriage this year" ~5% APY for just understanding how the Middle East works. Someone really buy "YES" here 😭

@shmidtqq @polyboostxyz It sounds like a success!

$1,980 → $25,555 if it hits I just got this screenshot, and I'm completely shocked. Some completely insane crypto enthusiast put together a death train of 7 matches on @polyboostxyz and loaded it with almost 2,000 USDT. Avalanche, Louisville, Wake Forest... He combined top leagues and college teams. Odds are 12.91X. Just think about it: this guy is expecting a payout of 25,000 bucks !!! And you know what? The bet is green, the accumulator is actively winning. Limited spots: polyboost.xyz/?ref=shmidt

@shmidtqq It looks interesting! I need to get into the subject.

Why one lucky call means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING Prediction markets have bred a really dumb habit: someone gets one call right, makes a bag, and suddenly starts preaching like they’re a certified genius. The reality is, a single outcome doesn't prove squat. On platforms like Polymarket, people constantly confuse two entirely different things: guessing the right outcome and pricing the probability correctly. If you give an event a 90% chance and it happens, you could still be a terrible forecaster. If you give it 30% and it doesn't happen, you might actually be a good one. The real question is: was that probability actually justified? > The Brier Score and the Harsh Reality. Instead of flexing flashy PnL screenshots, real forecasters use the Brier Score: BS = (p - o)^2 This formula doesn’t care how smart your thread sounded. It brutally punishes fake confidence. > The Ideal Forecaster is a Calibrated Forecaster. Everyone loves tossing around numbers like 70% or 90%. But very few people want to be judged on whether their 70% actually plays out 7 out of 10 times over the long run. If the bets you’re 70% confident in are only hitting 45% of the time, your numbers are just hot air. You aren’t measuring reality, you’re just showing off your ego. A lot of the so called market elite are honestly just riding the waves of variance. Judging skill on a simple hit or miss basis is lazy. It breeds fake gurus who just got lucky on a tiny sample size of a couple of election or geopolitical bets. Ask yourself better questions: What probability did you assign? Was it justified? How do your numbers hold up over a sample size of hundreds of forecasts? Reality will always punish fake confidence way harder than a little healthy doubt. Until people grasp this, the market will keep rewarding survivorship bias and good marketing instead of actual intelligence.

@Sevenup27 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade You're welcome buddy

@KnightShift @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Thanks for sharing, I’ll read it

@polyfactual 🫡🤝

@KnightShift Thanks for requoting 🤝

How to turn $100 into $2,000 with parlay bets on Polymarket I found a new way to earn several times more than on Polymarket I placed a bet that Bayern and Man United will both win - I put in $100 and the potential payout is $2,000 I use polyboost.xyz/?ref=xakimke9 and my odds increased by 20x - 1 bet → multiple outcomes → higher payout - high odds (x3, x5, x10+) Yesterday was the launch of a closed beta, access is limited, and I’ve got a few invite fcfs codes for you Code: xakimke9 (10 fcfs) There are also AI-generated picks on the site (ready-made parlay with explanations from AI, showing a very high win rate) – quick bets (on BTC / gold / commodities) for 60 seconds - up or down – similar to 15min btc bets on Polymarket, but you can also trade real assets like gold Team promises rewards for beta testers after the beta ends We have time before the public launch in a couple of weeks to earn on accumulators and farm rewards

@KyleDeWriter Just a living legend!

Yet, you haven't lost to HFT trading bots. Over the last week Polymarket trader made another $500k on sports. today his pnl sits at $11.4million An absolute record and 2x gap from #2 in all-time sports leaderboard. The main thing: he is a human Easily tracked by trades frequency and pattern. Few days ago I added him to copytrade list and managed to earn +137% > head to profile: @kch123?via=kyledewriter" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@kch123?via=ky… > copy the wallet address > paste in the chat with Kreo bot: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… > track the progress Still, leadership in sports sector is taken by human hand. Mispricing is farmed by bots. Meanwhile people trade their conviction and analysis.

Polymarket. Monday. Watch. top 1 among all? you’ll find out soon the countdown has started

@Bober_smart Cool podcast!

> 20-year-old founder received $2.5M in investment > Gondor solves the capital efficiency problem on Polymarket > Path from Manifold → Polymarket → own product > Prediction markets not hype, but infrastructure > Advice on building on Polymarket > Fundraising and philosophy >The future of prediction markets You must know this if you are interested in prediction markets. Bookmark it so you don't lose it.

@Bober_smart @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade this is true, but not in all cases!

@KnightShift @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Polymarket + mathematics = profit

@herman_m8 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade lmao

If you've earned >$1 in Rewards on Polymarket > Your chances for $POLY airdrop are HIGHER than trader with 1M$ in volume

@rvaniaaaa He's a legend!

Went down a small rabbit hole checking random trader profiles on Polymarket and ended up on an account called Capman He’s currently showing around $247K in total profit with over 10,000 predictions placed Looking through his closed positions, a lot of the wins come from sports markets like UFC, NFL and NBA, with some trades reaching position sizes of about $20K It’s kind of wild when you think about it — some people spend their whole lives training to play these sports, while others spend their time studying stats, odds and patterns and end up making money from the same games in a completely different way Seeing numbers like that on a single profile really puts into perspective how big this platform has quietly become And I don’t think it’s going to slow down anytime soon — if anything, we’ll probably see more and more people figuring it out and pulling in serious money here

@Polymarket Goodbye legend!

JUST IN: Netanyahu expresses condolences for the passing of Chuck Norris.

@0xWast3 @forsmarkets At least I am! but the results are not the same for me😃

@KnightShift @forsmarkets handsome broski, dou know many traders who trade sports?

$3.67 million profit… from just 3 predictions Biggest bag? $2.42 million pure on Arsenal vs Chelsea Loaded $4.5M YES at ~65¢ avg Arsenal 2-1 → instant cash explosion 3 bets. 3 wins. 100% hit rate. Monthly leaderboard smoked Every move clean on @forsmarkets P&L calendar looks straight up fake (check the screenshot) Just monster conviction + edge spotting You dropping $4.5M on one match like that?

@polyworm9 excellent analytics! if you made a prediction, I wish you success on this market

Polymarket gives Sevilla 42% but the data says otherwise. Sevilla sit 15th in La Liga losing 5 of 6 recent. They only won 4 home games this entire season. Romero got a red card and misses this match. Valencia are unbeaten against Sevilla in 5 straight meetings. 7 of 8 head to head games had under 2.5 goals. The best play here is the draw at 31 cents. Sevilla are too weak at home to be worth 42 cents. Both teams are inconsistent and fighting for survival. The data clearly points to the draw as best value.