Kyle the Writer

just got done with my part at @notthreadguy livestream. that was lit, bit nervous but I think we revealed some moments good enough. much appreciate your time, your feed. see soon again!

@KnightPredict probably, as said it's not the winning outcome, but good one for catching the odds turbulence

@KyleDeWriter Time will pass very quickly and probably there will be no changes.

4.5% probability that US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal will be reached this month Trump stated "US will escort ships" hours after saying "the latest Iran offer is unacceptable" Starting today we're counting down the time for further actions from both US and Iran Further negotiations will naturally move the related market odds At this case I pretend to say: 95% for NO is overpriced As 5% for YES pays off much greater on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd shake off Any peace of news needs to be dropped within a month to lock the profit Dug into YES shares top holders: > 10+ Geopolitics successful traders > 3 brandnew wallets with 0 trade history > Car + ScottyNooo + wan123 + betwick are in This prediction is likely not the winning one, but a prepared >10x upside

@jasperbellx it doesn't until any of the picked outcomes loses purchasing into 2 outcomes might be safer bc in case you lost 1 trade the second gives you back 5% or okay the risk is almost the same low in both cases

@KyleDeWriter It depends on the situation but it doesn't affect the return: $2k on two outcomes with avg 95c or $2k on one outcome with 95c price. no difference

'Will hit or not' Polymarket trading strategy How is it best to trade on markets regarding price hitting different levels? > Choose a range with the least likely outcome > Choose the two extreme bets > Buy NO For example: Will Bitcoin hit $95k or $60k? NO (~5-6% / ~60-70% APR) Will Oil hit the chosen range and so on You can literally replace DeFi on Polymarket To minimize risks you should make min research and choose the best ranges You can ignore some of the edges depending on the situation: if you believe that the general trend is for Bitcoin to fall, you can choose not to buy the lower outcome

@rcom1337 you just admitted you washtraded $10k in volume

@KyleDeWriter you're wrong here, cause that's exactly how I managed to get the referral link :) that market was totally free

$5 to unlock Polymarket's referral program friends who are just starting out always ask me: "how do I hit $10k volume to get a referral link with minimal expenses?" it's simpler than you think, here's how: → find a market that already resolved YES at 100¢ → buy 100 shares for $100 → sell immediately - you get back $99.90, because the spread eats $0.10 → repeat 50 times each cycle = ~$200 volume, $0.10 loss 50 cycles = $10,000 volume, total cost ~$5 Referral program pays you % of fees from every person you refer, forever. market with $0.1 spread: polymarket.com/event/qatarene… if you found it useful, save and follow

@winngamerx many think this way but the result of todays actions depends not only on Regime change, but also on Hormuz blockade and Nuclear deal

@KyleDeWriter I don't believe in a long-term truce. Unless the Iranian regime is completely destroyed.

@lorden_eth I just wonder why og's hold the yes resolution

@KyleDeWriter bro idk this sounds wrong 😅

@bckfv_eth sure time is ticking, might be a good decision to look at the odds of May31 market

@KyleDeWriter 11 days is too little tho… ig if it will be enough, that’s good for us and the world in a whole

@0xashensoul this is the prediction for totally huge military actions

THE OIL SHORT MACHINE 🛢️ this polymarket whale made $500K in 2 months exclusively fading Oil price spikes since March, he’s maintained a 70% win rate by fading the hype. current play: aggressively buying "NO" on WTI hitting $110-$150 in May.

@0xashensoul 15th may, this month, right

@KyleDeWriter 4.5% probability that US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal will be reached by May 15*

@DankoWeb3 lmaoo for sure, use limit sell orders

@KyleDeWriter hmmm this is a pretty interesting play especially knowing how much trump loves to talk i think conservative x2 is worth going for the main thing is to be at the terminal when it happens

@bckfv_eth the case when net worth means less than ever who are you personally stand for?

one of the biggest Silicon Valley's dramas is in full swing i'm talking about Musk vs. Altman battle on OpenAI's not following the original path Musk said that the root cause is Founding Agreement and his funding, that was intended for open-source humanity-friendly AGI and now getting money from Microsoft with the main goal of more profit and not enough focus of security according to OpenAI's charter, if AGI is reached, then Microsoft's license do not cover anything after it and Musk states that AGI is de-facto been reached tho Microsoft gets a non-exclusive license through 2032 independent of AGI progress after April negotiations - this trigger is gone the main OpenAI's argument is that there's no Founding Agreement, these were emails and statements of intent, not a signed document also, past Musk's letters were made public in court, in which Musk himself proposed turning OpenAI into a profitable entity under Tesla’s control because it was the only way to compete with Google while 2015 agreement was not formal, in the legal field things are a bit more nuanced a series of emails and public statements from 2015 to 2016 collectively could constitute a legally binding agreement if Musk wins the case on key points, it could halt the IPO and result in a massive fine for OpenAI @Polymarket odds looks in favor of Altman tho Musk's letters about Tesla acquiring OpenAI then this completely undermines the image of Musk as someone who fought solely for “pure philanthropy” and safety dyor

@banan_crypto @Polymarket @PMTraderAdam @PredictParity I wonder did the Adam see this tweet and what does he think about it a real predictions G

This Polymarket Trader, who has +$19,663 PnL, is good at absolutely everything CT has @Polymarket Trader whom I truly admire I’m talking about @PMTraderAdam He has +$19.7K PnL. 78.9% Win Rate. Rank 6345 I find out these stats on @PredictParity BUT he’s not just a trader He is also LP'er who is in the top 1.17% in LP rewards Leaderboard And he is pretty big X creator with 2.5K followers How is it possible to be so brilliant at everything? XD I wish him to keep going and get even better

@DankoWeb3 the only thing left is to autoamatize wallets tracking, or do you prefer manual following?

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗽𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝘆𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 I found the most convenient terminal for this this isn't a promo tweet - I genuinely believe it and I'll tell you why this isn't another TG bot where you spend hours figuring it out, only to end up finding a wallet through polymarket and slapping it onto auto copy trading those bots have a lot of pitfalls 99% of the time you lose money personally I chose predictparity and here's why let's start with the basics - in the TRADERS tab you can set up every filter you need: - profile with linked twitter or without - PnL - assets - win rate - volume - balance - account age - positions (my filter settings on the screenshot) once you find a wallet that fits, you check: - are you ok with the markets he trades - are you ok with the timing of his trades - does the trade frequency fit you this could be an active flipper, or a trader who places a bet and waits for market expiration regardless of whether the share ends at $0 or $1 you can review every data point on the wallet and every single trade personally I like traders who bet on near impossible events and use polymarket more like a DeFi (example of such a traders trades on the screenshot - "will ETH hit $1000 in 2026" NO etc) obviously even this style has risks, but where's crypto without them? you could literally hold USDC at 6% on drift protocol and lose everything in a single day once you find the wallet you want, you bookmark it and every trade shows up in the TRACK tab I literally see absolutely everything happening on polymarket who bought, who sold, what size, what market and I can filter all of that data however I want on one of the screenshots I showed what the LIVE TRADES tab looks like this is the tab I have open 24/7 I just set the filter to >$5000 and watch what whales and top traders are betting on in real time trust me, no other trading terminal gives you this much information right now I'm building a list of top KOLs that match my style for copying my trading has already improved a lot once I hit decent results, I'll definitely share what came out of it for now here's the link to the wallet list I've put together

@0xMarchyel @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade is the meteoblue the only source you use for analysis?

Interesting day on the London weather market! Started with 18C/17C being the favorites, then corrected to 16C, but ultimately settled at 15C. Huge win today for me and a big shoutout to the Meteoblue forecast model for the edge, it was predicting 15C very early 👏👏👏

@vijn_crypto need your call for the next market just say up or down faast

I made $37 today in just a couple of minutes with almost no risk And I can show you exactly how - so you can repeat it too Here’s what happened: Right before the US stock market opened (9:00-9:30 AM ET), we saw a local dip in BTC I expected institutions to start buying back, so I was watching the 15-min markets closely BTC started dropping and touched the lower VWAP level Then we got a strong reaction - long wick + buying pressure At that moment, the Up share was trading around 18¢ I entered and took profit at 60¢ The entire trade took less than 2 minutes This kind of quick, high-probability setup happens almost every day during high-liquidity hours I hope this was helpful to someone

Used this for checking Top Holders and reading the latest news feed: predictparity.com/live-trades?co…

@mustafap0ly meeting Mustafa at this round world was one of the most profitable (not abt money) decisions of Polymarket

just over a year at polymarket, been a great run 😛

@lorden_eth I honestly guess this wallet will remain inactive farming referral rewards either this is some huge kol wallet or a batch of wallets registered via same link by one single person, what is strictly prohibited on polymarket

BREAKING: Is this a new type of bot? Profile: polymarket.com/profile/0xa163… Account initially had a winning streak Then switched to farming referral rewards He seems to have onboarded a full village @KyleDeWriter called it an HTF bot Or is there a new edge we don't know about?