Rob Kummer

1.2K posts

Rob Kummer

Rob Kummer

@KummerRob

शामिल हुए Ekim 2014
392 फ़ॉलोइंग63 फ़ॉलोवर्स
Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@Comparativist Bad in the sense it's bad information. 11 days is the legal minimum requirement of gas stocks (oil and coal have higher requirements), and not indicative of actual stocks and booked cargoes replacing Qatari LNG that have been secured out till at least May so far.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@jason_a69 @Mike16704475527 We went to a pub downstairs (in Canary Wharf) but were soon turfed out by the estate security saying we had to leave the area, while weirdly insisting it was not an evacuation. Ended up in a pub in London Bridge.
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Jase
Jase@jason_a69·
@Mike16704475527 I went to the pub over the road from work (Old Bailey Street) and watched it on TV
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Mike Fagan
Mike Fagan@Mike16704475527·
I was at my parents' house on that day, my dad called upstairs for me in a tone of horror, and I remember going into the living room and seeing the first tower on fire and then the second plane hit a few minutes later. I have never experienced such a profound shock in my life.
Lola Woods 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇬🇧@woods_lola6914

Yup! In my high school, the day after 9/11 all the Muslims were cheering and celebrating. It was the day I realised we have a HUGE problem. Little 15 year old me was bewildered why kids were chanting ‘death to the West’ like demons.

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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@Mike16704475527 Close in, stealth doesn't really count for much. If the video is even real, this F-35 was being tracked visually, meaning close proximity (either to the ground or another aircraft or drone). Low radar observability is generally a standoff game, beyond visual range.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@BBDaybreakEU I don't think I've heard Alsatian before! It's interesting that his vowels - particularly the "ah" - differ from the interviewers'. His resemble Swabian or even Austrian (becoming "aw") more than any Swiss German, while the interviewer sounds closer to most Swiss dialects.
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Strategic Advisor
Strategic Advisor@BBDaybreakEU·
It sounds like a gallicised Swiss German. I can make out some of it and then it dips in and out of unintelligible nasal sounds. He also throws in various French words in a way the Swiss Germans don't, like 'donc' and 'plaisir'.
Aristocratic Fury@LandsknechtPike

This is how Alsatian language sounds. I found a rare video of football manager Arsène Wenger speaking in his native Alsatian. The former Arsenal manager grew up in a small village of Duttlenheim, where everybody spoke Alsatian, and only learned French in school.

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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@Mike16704475527 In fact to my eyes the positioning of the wing looks more Kh-like (TLAM wings are slightly further back along the body), although it's really tough to say.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@Mike16704475527 Tomahawks can also do a terminal 'bunt', thus coming in at a steeper angle, if terrain or evasion of ground fire requires it. That said, I don't know how everyone's so certain that this has to be a TLAM in the footage: Iran has Kh-55 derived cruise missiles that look very similar
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Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
This I really don’t understand. What am I supposed to do? Look at the situation, make a call on who I think would win and then throw my independent thinking out of the window because Daddy America knows best? BTW to my fellow Americans…if it looks like you’re going off a cliff, it is in fact the patriotic choice to course correct instead of doubling down!
Bane@B4n4L1ty

@BayAreaNewLibs @AngelicaOung She’s just an opportunist. She looked at the situation, made a call on who she thinks will win and decides to side with China. Nothing complicated about it.

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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung The actual treaty cementing it all is San Fran, and it's absurd to suggest Potsdam or Cairo - which were statements of intent - would somehow supersede a subsequent, binding treaty. You're veering into standard PRC talking points now; they are objectively extremely weak claims.
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Know Both Sides
Know Both Sides@KnowBothSides·
@KummerRob @AngelicaOung The 1945 Potsdam Proclamation was a crucial Allied document demanding Japan's surrender and specifying that Japanese sovereignty would be limited to4 islands, with the terms of the Cairo Declaration (returning Taiwan to the Republic of China) to be carried out.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung And the Qing inherited it from the defeated Ming loyalists. And were so unenthusiastic about it that they offered it back to the Dutch (who Koxinga had chased out of Taiwan), but the Dutch had moved on and didn't want to return. "Taking back" is probably not the right term there.
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Know Both Sides
Know Both Sides@KnowBothSides·
@KummerRob @AngelicaOung ROC took back Taiwan from Japan, or inheriting Taiwan from Qing. As simple as that. NOT "quasi-occupying force"
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung That is incorrect. The Treaty of San Francisco of 1951 remains in force. I don't know what you mean by 'more legit treaties', but that is the only treaty that addresses the renunciation of Japan's imperial territories, and the status of Taiwan was left open.
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Know Both Sides
Know Both Sides@KnowBothSides·
@KummerRob @AngelicaOung That treaty has no legal power. There are more legit treaties and UN resolution to prove that TW was part of ROC after WW2 cuz TW was part of Qing before Japan took it by force
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung Again, you are missing nuance. The KMT arrived in Taiwan as a quasi-occupying force in 1949. There were already lots of people in Taiwan - they had been subjects of the Japanese Empire. They were not uniformly delighted to be incorporated into the ROC and governed by force.
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Know Both Sides
Know Both Sides@KnowBothSides·
@KummerRob @AngelicaOung From 1945 to 1949, Taiwan was a province of ROC. Then the civil war was paused w one side controlling mainland, ROC still has its last province TW. So this is an unfinished civil war of the new govt PRC vs old govt ROC. So it's not abt KMT, but abt ROC, of which TW is part of
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung Just saying things doesn't violate international law, so I don't think so. As a matter of int'l law, though, Taiwan's status post-WWII remains undetermined by treaty. The ROC were handed the keys as administrators, but the question of sovereignty was never conclusively addressed
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung I initially assumed you were arguing in bad faith; I apologise for that. It seems more likely now that you may not know much of the history. A key issue is that the KMT is not the same thing as Taiwan. That distinction is vital to understanding how we got to where we are.
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Know Both Sides
Know Both Sides@KnowBothSides·
@KummerRob @AngelicaOung So one side of the civil war now changed mind and wants secession instead. It's ridiculous that the other side should agree to this secession. No thing new - US had Civil War too.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung Not really, no. The ROC functionally ceased to claim sovereignty over mainland China since the constitutional amendments of 1991. If it's a civil war, it's a very one-sided one. The PRC's claim to Taiwan is weak both as a matter of history and international law.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung Your statement of causality ("Taiwan gave up hope because China became strong") is wrong, and the study you link to doesn't uphold it. Taiwan does not want to reunify given the opportunity. Democratisation and 'Taiwanisation' were much more powerful forces in shaping this shift.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@AngelicaOung Characterising it as a resumption of hostilities doesn't make an invasion not an invasion should China decide to move on Taiwan. That's a silly semantic game. ROC has not claimed sovereignty over mainland China since 1991, and regards the PRC as a legitimate political entity.
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Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
The Republic of China on Taiwan and the Peoples republic of China on the mainland both claim the entirety of Taiwan plus Mainland. It’s a frozen civil war so even if fighting resumed there’s no invasion. Besides, it’s to everybody’s preference for Chinese on both sides of the straits to resolve this peacefully. As such we can do without foreign meddling
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung That is a wantonly un-nuanced recounting of the history, and a thoroughly misleading statement of the status quo - but I suspect you know that.
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Know Both Sides
Know Both Sides@KnowBothSides·
@KummerRob @AngelicaOung It's a civil war. Taiwan also wanted to "invade" Chinese mainland until mainland became strong enough so that Taiwan gave up hope. Both sides want to reunify the other if they are able to. Now it's clear that TW is not able to, so TW changed its narrative
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@AngelicaOung China does not rule out invading Taiwan to secure 'reunification', as you very well know. That's the side you were talking about. Whatabouting Iran isn't particularly germane to your stance on that.
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Rob Kummer
Rob Kummer@KummerRob·
@Mike16704475527 Correct. The idea that Lloyds has been usurped by the US is daft.
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Mike Fagan
Mike Fagan@Mike16704475527·
I'm no expert on insurance markets, but if the U.S. Navy is going to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, then Lloyds will be aware of that fact and will price accordingly. I don't understand what Trump is trying to do here.
Steve Skojec@SteveSkojec

This is a ballsy power play by Trump. Lloyd's of London was the gold standard for maritime insurance policies until just a day or two ago when they started cancelling policies or jacking them up 3-5X. Others insurers followed. That collapsed commercial shipping traffic through Hormuz, which choked oil shipments out of the Middle East. Trump doing this means the DFC has the chance to displace Lloyd's as the big dog in this game, when they have been the lock-in player for many years. It also frees up all the oil that was getting trapped there, heading off shortages and keeping the energy market alive. And why not? It's the American navy that sunk the Iranian ships that were harassing tankers. And the American Navy -- at least for now -- will keep those tankers safe. It's a huge reassurance to allies -- both oil producers and oil consumers -- that our campaign in Iran isn't going to sink their economies. And it allows America to be choosy about traffic in the Strait. It also potentially means billions of dollars in insurance premiums at wartime rates going to America instead of the UK. And those rates are STILL going to be cheaper than what shippers were getting.

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