
LD OSINT
99 posts


@MaxAbrahms I’m not too worried, in a handful of days Iran regime will be forced into shutting in their wells. We can handle oil in the 90’s we had higher prices in 2007 - 2008 and recently in 2022.
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@Osint613 The entire world is obviously bleeding out because of the blockade.
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Today the Islamic regime wins, let’s see what happens Thursday
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Islamic Regime: We promised not to negotiate if the Naval blockade is in place President Trump: We will absolutely not lift the Naval blockade until a deal is reached. Who wins?
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@Osint613 Not really…
iMo the turnaround of funds to Iran is 2-3mo+ , that is *after* delivery.
Short term, they wont care.
But remember , ceasefire expires, IRGC will start their fuckery again, so strait wont be safe, and all countries will feel pain. Blockade isnt sustainable
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I’ve been working on collecting all this research for a while now. Hope you enjoy.

David Whitehead@TruthWarriorDad
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@neetintel @Osinttechnical In my personal opinion the cease fire was premature, in 13 days iran will be forced to start shutting in their wells because they will have nowhere to store their oil.
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@Osinttechnical Is the ceasefire necessarily over because the talks failed, or do both sides have enough incentive to wait out the oiginally stated two weeks?
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@anasalhajji In 13 days Iran will be forced to start shutting in wells, we can hang tight for a while and governments around the world can help foot the bill by lowering fuel taxes across the board for citizens.
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أنا أريد أن أفهم،
البحرية الأميركية ستحظر كل السفن التي تستخدم الممر الإيراني وتمنعها من عبور هرمز، بما في ذلك حاملات النفط الإيرانية، بينما ستسمح بالمرور لكل السفن التي تمر بالممر المعهود تاريخيا..
ولكن السفن لن تمر بالممر المعروف لسببين،
الأول عدم وجود تأمين
والثاني خوفا من انتقام إيراني..
وهذا يعني إغلاق تام لمضيق هرمز... إلا إذا استخدمت الناقلات الإيرانية الممر المعروف دوليا.. 😳
وهل ستستخدم إيران أنبوب النفط إلى ميناء جاسك بكامل طاقته الإنتاجية لتلافي مضيق هرمز؟
العربية

@anasalhajji The Us will ban all ships from going to and from Iranian ports. All other non Iranian ports can still be used.
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@neetintel No, your respected it why I follow you and not him. The fear porn industry is a multi billion dollar industry. It’s been around forever. Before NY prepper similar personalities were fear mongering about Planet X, earthquakes, and Fukushima radiation.
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This is an anti western account pumping propaganda. Trump is not blockading the Hormuz he is blockading Iran, ships are allowed to use non Iranian ports. QE Infinity is also anti western, I recommend people unfollow both of these accounts and stop giving them reach.
Markets & Mayhem@Mayhem4Markets
Btw we went from Trump promising to open the Strait of Hormuz to him saying the US Navy will blockade it. He really has no idea what he's doing. 🫠
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@ThePenguinBTC You’re missing something simple, US can destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure, all of it.
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Trump İran'ın gemilerini durduracağını söyledi. Ama o gemilerin %90'ı Çin'e gidiyor.
Trump bugün açıklama yaptı:
"İran'a haraç ödeyen her gemiyi uluslararası sularda durduracağız."
Herkes bunu İran'a karşı bir hamle olarak gördü.
Ben bir soru sordum.
O gemiler kime gidiyor?
İran petrolünün %80-90'ını Çin'e satıyor.
Durduracağı gemilerin neredeyse tamamı Çin'e giden gemiler.
Trump İran diyor. Ama aslında Çin'in petrol hattını kesiyor.
Kimse bunu konuşmuyor.
Önce Islamabad'da ne olduğuna bakalım.
Pakistan'ın arabuluculuğuyla ABD ve İran masaya oturdu. Vance ABD heyetine başkanlık etti. Saatlerce görüşüldü.
Anlaşma olmadı.
JD Vance "Son ve en iyi teklifimizi verdik" deyip masadan kalktı.
Saatler sonra Trump iki açıklama yaptı. İkisi de çok ağır.
Birincisi:
"ABD Donanması Hürmüz Boğazı'na giren veya çıkan tüm gemileri abluka altına alacak. Tam bir abluka devreye sokuyoruz. İran'ın sevdiği insanlara petrol satıp sevmediklerine satmamasına izin vermeyeceğiz. Ya hep ya hiç olacak."
İkincisi:
"Çin gemilerini bize yollasın. Venezuela'ya yollasın. Bizde fazla petrol var. Daha ucuza bile satarız."
Bu iki açıklamayı yan yana koyduğunuzda resim netleşiyor.
Birincisiyle Çin'in petrol hattını kesiyor. İkincisiyle Çin'e "benden al" diyor.
Peki Çin neden ABD'den alsın?
Şu an Çin, İran'dan kendi parasıyla petrol alıyor. Yuan ile. Dolar yok, SWIFT yok, ABD'nin kontrolündeki hiçbir sisteme bağımlı değil.
ABD'den alırsa ne olur?
Dolar kullanmak zorunda kalır. ABD bankacılık sistemine girer, SWIFT üzerinden işlem yapar.
ABD istediği zaman musluğu kapatabilir. Yaptırım koyabilir. Hesapları dondurabilir.
Tıpkı İran'a yaptığı gibi. Tıpkı Rusya'ya yaptığı gibi.
Trump petrol satmak istemiyor. Çin'i kendine bağımlı yapmak istiyor.
Çin bunu biliyor.
Mesele petrol değil. Mesele kontrol.
Şimdi İran'ın Hürmüz'de ne kurduğuna bakalım.
İran boğazda bir gişe sistemi kurdu.
Her ülkeye 1'den 5'e kadar öncelik puanı veriyor.
Birinci öncelik: Dost ülkeler. Geçiş kolaylaştırılıyor.
Diğer ülkeler güvenlik taramasından geçiyor. İsrail veya ABD bağlantısı olmadığı doğrulanıyor. Sonra ücret ödeniyor.
Ücret: Varil başına 1 dolar. Yuan veya kripto ile.
Ödeme yapılınca İran Devrim Muhafızları geçiş kodu veriyor. Gemi boğaza yaklaştığında kodu radyodan iletiyor. Devriye botu karşılıyor. Boğazdan geçene kadar eşlik ediyor.
Bu sistem Mart 2026'da İran Meclisi tarafından yasalaştırıldı.
Ve Japonya bile bu sistemi kullandı. ABD'nin en yakın müttefiklerinden biri. İran'a yuan ile ödeme yaparak gemilerinin geçmesini sağladı.
Şimdi kritik soruya gelelim.
ABD gerçekten Çin gemisini durdurabilir mi?
Bir Çin ticaret gemisini uluslararası sularda durdurmak ve aramak ne anlama gelir?
Çin bunu ticaret ablukası olarak görür. Egemenlik ihlali olarak görür.
Sessiz kalmaz.
Çin'in muhtemel tepkileri:
İran'a desteğini artırır. Hürmüz'deki yuan sistemini güçlendirir. Donanmasını bölgeye yaklaştırabilir, ABD tahvili satışını hızlandırabilir.
Yani Çin gemisini durdurursanız sorunu çözmezsiniz. Büyütürsünüz.
Peki durduramazsa?
O zaman daha büyük bir sorun var.
Trump "tüm gemileri durduracağız" dedi. Dünya izliyor.
Körfez ülkeleri izliyor.
Avrupa izliyor.
Taiwan izliyor.
Rusya izliyor.
Hepsinin aklında tek bir soru var: Amerika dediğini yapabilir mi?
Eğer Çin gemileri geçmeye devam ederse ve ABD durduramıyorsa cevap herkes için netleşir.
"Yapamıyor."
Ray Dalio'nun formülünü hatırlayın.
"Süper güçler kritik ticaret yollarında kontrolü kaybettiğinde güven çöker. Müttefikler uzaklaşır. Para kaçar."
Portekiz böyle bitti. Hollanda böyle bitti. İngiltere 1956'da Süveyş'te böyle bitti.
İki senaryo var. İkisi de riskli.
Birincisi: ABD Çin gemilerini durdurur. Abluka gerçek olur. Bu İran savaşından çok daha tehlikeli bir krize dönüşebilir. Çünkü karşınızda İran değil Çin var.
İkincisi: ABD Çin gemilerine dokunamaz. Abluka kağıt üzerinde kalır. "Bu ülke dediğini yapamıyor" algısı oluşur. Müttefikler mesafe koyabilir. Dolar zayıflayabilir.
İlk test çok yakında.
Bir Çin petrol tankeri Hürmüz'e doğru yola çıktığında ABD Donanması ne yapacak?
O an her şeyi belirleyecek.
Bu benim kişisel analizim.
Önümüzdeki birkaç gün çok yoğun geçecek, sizi her şeyden haberdar edeceğim.


Türkçe

@BurroughsTon @Vman1234V @no_itsmyturn He won’t show the info on iran and Gaza, he’s too scared it will break his delusion.
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@Vman1234V @no_itsmyturn There is no mass censorship, it’s called video evidence, have fun with your delusions. Your too scared to post the damage in Iran and gaza so you won’t.
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@LDOSINT @no_itsmyturn Actually more than a billion dollars. Mass censorship over there. They will never report the truth like ukraine. Same nonsense. 150 of 100 missiles intercepted kind of nonsense 🤣
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@Vman1234V @no_itsmyturn lol not even a billion dollars, this is a drop in the lake, now do gaza and Iran
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@no_itsmyturn Well then more destruction of israel then. You get what you ask for, more war. Good luck
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@silas_dawnforge @Real_Politik101 Europe needs to wake up fast, Trump is doing whatever he can do to prevent the multi polar world yet everyone gets in his way. As a Canadian it makes sense to have the closest ties to America our ally and friends who we are attached to by the hip.
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@LDOSINT @Real_Politik101 U.S. will fight you if you try to join EU after all of this. No chance that Europe is getting a foothold in North America after NATO collapses.
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The Monroe Doctrine applies to the north of us as well, not just the south. This would be the policy in its traditional sense because it was about expelling European influence from the continents. Our Ukraine…
The Globe and Mail@globeandmail
Majority of Canadians open to joining EU, new poll suggests theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
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LD OSINT रीट्वीट किया

You know… I have been watching this global timeline on X unravel for a while now, and I have got to tell you something that half of you already know but the other half are still learning about.
Everybody is obsessed with the Jews.
Again.
It is 2026 and we are still running the same tired subroutine: “If only we could just solve the Jewish question, everything would fall into place.” Social media, campuses, parliaments, street marches, it is all “Zionist this, AIPAC that, dual loyalty, global cabal.” Same song, different playlist.
And I am here to tell you… that is not the variable that is breaking the system.
That is the distraction variable.
See, chaos theory is not just about butterflies and hurricanes. It is about how complex systems, like civilisations, will always find the path of least resistance to explain their own collapse. And right now the West has found the easiest, laziest, most emotionally satisfying scapegoat in human history: a people who make up 0.2 percent of the global population and somehow get blamed for every single failure of late-stage modernity.
But let us run the actual numbers. Let us look at the real attractors pulling us toward the cliff.
One: The theology of Islam. Not the guy down the street who just wants to sell you falafel. I am talking about the scriptural, doctrinal, supremacist strain that has never accepted the Enlightenment, never accepted secular law, never accepted that the infidel has a right to exist as an equal. It is not a race. It is not an ethnicity. It is an ideology that says the world is divided into Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb, the House of Peace and the House of War, and the second one is everyone else. That is not “Islamophobia.” That is reading the source code.
Two: Palestinism. Not the legitimate desire of any people to have self-determination. I am talking about the death-cult ideology that turned a territorial dispute into a sacrament of martyrdom. A movement that celebrates October 7th livestreams, that teaches toddlers to chant “from the river to the sea,” that has produced more suicide bombers and glorified throat-cutters per capita than any cause in modern history. It is not nationalism. It is a suicide pact wearing a keffiyeh, and the West keeps importing its most radical believers while pretending it is just “criticism of Israel.”
Three: The radical woke left - the critical social justice zombies - that have so infiltrated the deep state, academia, and media they are appearing to become the new normal. The ones that turned biology into bigotry, turned merit into “whiteness,” and turned every institution, universities, corporations, media, government, into an indoctrination mill. It is the same intellectual virus that says the nuclear family is oppressive, that borders are racist, that the only thing standing between utopia and now is punching up at the wrong skin colour or the wrong gender or… conveniently… the wrong ethnicity. And when that project inevitably fails, when crime spikes, when test scores collapse, when birth rates crater, who do they blame?
The Jews. Again. Every single time.
You see the sleight of hand? The real problems, mass migration without assimilation, ideological capture of the academy, a religious worldview that rejects the very idea of a pluralistic West, those are too scary to face head-on. So the system does what any failing complex system does: it finds the smallest, most visible, most historically convenient target and screams “THERE! That is why it is all falling apart!”
But here is the part they do not want you to notice.
Jews did not open the borders.
Jews did not invent critical race theory.
Jews did not fly planes into buildings on 9/11.
Jews did not teach British schoolgirls that grooming gangs were just “cultural misunderstanding.”
Jews are not the ones demanding you affirm 72 genders while they throw homosexuals off rooftops in Gaza.
The Jews are the canary. They always have been. When a civilisation starts hunting the canary, it is not because the canary caused the poison gas, it is because the gas is already in the coal mine and people would rather kill the bird than fix the leak.
So yeah… life, uh… finds a way.
It finds a way to distract you with the oldest hatred in the book while the actual predators walk right through the gates you left wide open.
The question is not whether the Jews are too powerful.
The question is why so many of you are so desperate to believe they are, because admitting the real dangers would mean admitting you have been lied to by the people you trusted, and that the West is dying from self-inflicted wounds wearing keffiyehs, pronoun pins, and academic robes.
Wake up.
Or do not.
The system does not care.
It is already choosing the next attractor.
And it is not the Jews.
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