VolMachine

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VolMachine

VolMachine

@VolMachine

Leverage is a volatility machine (paraphrasing Pettis). HY/IG/Loans/Distressed.

शामिल हुए Şubat 2024
818 फ़ॉलोइंग1.1K फ़ॉलोवर्स
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Neil Sethi
Neil Sethi@neilksethi·
@TheChartReport nightly email has a link to a nice article from the always interesting @FrankCappelleri (click through for the whole thing and other charts/links) where he makes a great point about the SPX falling beneath the 200-DMA: There are plenty of examples where a break led to more downside, but just as many, if not more, where it created a buying opportunity instead. We can see both outcomes on this chart going back over the last 10 years. The red periods highlight times when breaks below the 200-day led to much more volatility—whether elongated trading ranges like 2015-16, outright crashes like 2020, or a more extended bear market like 2022. [The yellow periods saw relatively quick reversals]. There’s no use in trying to guess which outcome this will be after just [two days]. It always comes down to the follow-through and the patterns that develop from here
Neil Sethi tweet media
The Chart Report@TheChartReport

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @MarketMaestro1 The bond market just sent a strong message. Get the full breakdown in today's report plus more great charts. thechartreport.com/03-20-26

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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
ISRAELI SOURCES: WE RULE OUT CARRYING OUT A GROUND OPERATION TO TAKE CONTROL OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
I have no ability to tell whether these companies committed fraud or not. But I do think there would a massive crackdown on these services and waivers would not renew without significant reductions in eligibility and/or hours.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
Oz calls out the fraud in Flushing Queens where adult daycare centers send “personal care aides” to seniors who don’t need it. Guess whose sales in NY state comes almost exclusively from this neighborhood? TEAPUB
DrOzCMS@DrOzCMS

We’ve shown hospice and durable medical equipment fraud, but Queens, NY, has nurtured an entirely different scandal with social adult daycare centers that trick seniors into getting care that they don’t need. Beware.

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VolMachine@VolMachine·
6,500 acting as a magnet but part of that is squeeze risk of a 5:30 pm Sunday taquito.
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VolMachine@VolMachine·
Sometimes I think about what would have happened if this drawdown came at a different time. So if this came in mid-Nov the puke would be so much harder because people would be protecting P&L. It’s early in the year and why there’s an underlying bid throughout.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
@ltmleverage You can do the math on your own buddy. I’m not obligated to do basic research work for you. But since you’re being so polite I’ll tell you that PCS is 3-4x fraudulent vs DME supplies and NEMT. You can say thank you as a matter of good manners
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
HHS OIG just put out a report on fraud and just ook at what an outlier PCS fraud is—more than every other fraud combined. People who think all the waivers will go through at flat utilization are very optimistic. Don’t fight the Feds. oig.hhs.gov/reports/all/20…
VolMachine tweet media
VolMachine@VolMachine

$ADUS and two junk credits (TEAPUB and HAHGRO) are sleepwalking into a wood-chipper if what’s being proposed is taken to its natural conclusion. Market is aware of the risks but is treating it as noise, when there is a clear terminal value risk.

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Gita Gopinath
Gita Gopinath@GitaGopinath·
It strikes me that markets are pricing in more hawkish central bank reaction functions as compared to where central bankers are. I suspect most central bankers are in wait and see mode and will want to see through some of the energy price increase. Unlike 2021, demand is not surging which makes seeing through a defensible strategy. They will likely be more cautious about rate cuts relative to pre-Iran conflict but markets seem to be pricing in much tighter monetary policy.
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VolMachine@VolMachine·
@w_duby Peak fear but cash bonds are frozen. No panic yet. People are aiming fire on select bonds but no wholesale degross. So I do worry a bit. Plus next pop will be sold too. I think peak cash HY drawdown is Tuesday Wednesday unless something changes.
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W_duby
W_duby@w_duby·
@VolMachine Kinda think today is peak fear
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VolMachine@VolMachine·
So let’s say you woke up from a coma, and I told you Dec 26 crude futures are up to 77 vs 65 a few months ago. I know futures are not a prediction of the price, but if we take this price at face value, would you panic? In many ways 55 is a much more scary level than 80
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VolMachine@VolMachine·
@ltmleverage 🤦‍♂️ dude… okay not worth debating since you’re not reading what I am saying which is Olmstead doesn’t matter at all.
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ltmleverage
ltmleverage@ltmleverage·
@VolMachine So ur argument is purely about where self directed plans should exist? If so is there even a headwind to the names provided?
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
$ADUS and two junk credits (TEAPUB and HAHGRO) are sleepwalking into a wood-chipper if what’s being proposed is taken to its natural conclusion. Market is aware of the risks but is treating it as noise, when there is a clear terminal value risk.
JV@AyyouEm

As someone who’s been involved in healthcare levfin for quite a while, all I can say is ‘First time?’ Anyone who’s covered this space knows various forms of home health are the dirtiest, scammiest gutters of the sector. If you’re not defrauding CMS, you aren’t doing your job.

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VolMachine@VolMachine·
Sure, the patient has a preference. How is that medically necessary? Either way, states move their criteria up and down all the time. Why doesn’t that trigger Olmstead? Because it doesn’t. So that tells you the simple answer. It’s not worth arguing about it because doesn’t matter
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ltmleverage
ltmleverage@ltmleverage·
@VolMachine The patient prefers a family member in the home vs a rando Adus and hahgro are almost pure play licensed. Teapub licenses the family member (might be using improper terminology)
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
@ltmleverage Yeah why can’t a PCS aide come and help? Why does it have to be friends and family? It doesn’t make any sense.
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ltmleverage
ltmleverage@ltmleverage·
@VolMachine Because the patient can’t cook while using a walker?
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
@ltmleverage yes but why is it medically necessary to have friends and family take care of you
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ltmleverage
ltmleverage@ltmleverage·
@VolMachine The patients receive a note for medical need from a doc no?
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
@ltmleverage Olmstead says “medically appropriate” and “reasonably accommodated”. You can drive a tanker through the definition. Base case is these waivers get approved but with much stricter criteria esp on self directed.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
Let’s talk about NY for a minute. Paragon has done work that shows NY has more home health aides than retail workers.CMS has recently sent letters to NY state and said that they’d look to suspend payments for at-risk categories unless the NY state shows it is fighting the problem
DrOzCMS@DrOzCMS

🚨 It is time for New York to come clean about its Medicaid program. Today, I sent a letter to Governor Hochul demanding answers and detailed documentation about the state’s fraud detection, program integrity infrastructure, managed care oversight, and corrective actions. Protecting beneficiaries and ensuring proper stewardship of Medicaid funds remain central to the federal-state partnership, and we at CMS stand ready to eradicate the fraud, waste, and abuse happening in New York. Governor Hochul and her team have 30 days to respond to our request. If we’re not satisfied with their response, we will take corrective action.

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