VolMachine
1.3K posts

VolMachine
@VolMachine
Leverage is a volatility machine (paraphrasing Pettis). HY/IG/Loans/Distressed.


Into the ether : knowing full well that I have very little idea about how Iran’s politics works, here is what we can impute from revealed preferences. (a) they want to stay in power (duh), (b) don’t want to be attacked again and (c) seems like they don’t care about being set back by say 5 years on the nuclear program but 15 years is no-go

If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel. Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability. It is important we get this right.

An alien who is in the U.S. temporarily and wants a Green Card must return to their home country to apply. This policy allows our immigration system to function as the law intended instead of incentivizing loopholes. The era of abusing our nation’s immigration system is over.

SCOOP: DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin told travel executives that he’s serious about curbing international flights to U.S. airports in cities with “sanctuary” policies, which could force airlines to re-route and inflict economic pain, @NickMiroff reports. theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…

Dropping 3 albums is cool but we're still on @ENERGY






The Trump administration has made it loud and clear to all states: if you commit fraud, you will lose medicaid funding.

It’s been almost two months since President Trump took the bold step of officially forming the Task Force to Eliminate Fraud. We’ve already uncovered tens of billions of dollars in defrauded taxpayer money, prosecuted dozens of fraudsters, and stopped billions in suspicious payments. And we’re just getting started. So why has it taken the federal government until now to finally tackle fraud? Because Andrew Ferguson and I are taking a new approach. Here’s how.










