VolMachine

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VolMachine

VolMachine

@VolMachine

Leverage is a volatility machine (paraphrasing Pettis). HY/IG/Loans/Distressed.

Katılım Şubat 2024
859 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
To make money in 2026, it’d help to be slightly stupid and oblivious. HFs like to think they’d crush it in these types of environments, but they’re more liable to be whipsawed. Sleepy LOs will outperform them year end.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
There are good reasons to hate the tape, and you might be right, but you’re not alone. Dispersion, often within sectors, is the game in LevFin, not direction.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
If only our negotiators weren’t total chucklefuck morons, falling entirely into obvious traps.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
@GreensplattCap Can’t talk about them because haven’t scaled them yet. But it’s not too hard to figure these out—market has done our work for us already.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
This from almost a month ago is holding well so far. Iran is long vol, US is running out of time and has to surrender. What that means for us is another episode of vol crush in the near term, while medium term risk continues to build.
VolMachine@VolMachine

Into the ether : knowing full well that I have very little idea about how Iran’s politics works, here is what we can impute from revealed preferences. (a) they want to stay in power (duh), (b) don’t want to be attacked again and (c) seems like they don’t care about being set back by say 5 years on the nuclear program but 15 years is no-go

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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
2Q earnings of select names is how the risk will be revealed. We’re more likely than not going to have an ugly summer in LevFin markets. Don’t book your summer vacation in difficult time zones.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
The negotiation process is increasing risk vs status quo, but distributing it over time and into select sectors to start with.
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VolMachine@VolMachine·
Get me out bond of the month. Falling face first while macro was good is stellar work. Another CD&R beauty.
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Grapevine Police
Grapevine Police@GrapevinePolice·
Yesterday, GPD and GFD were dispatched to Grapevine Lake, where a Tesla Cybertruck was stranded in the water. The driver drove into the lake to use the “Wade Mode” feature when the vehicle became disabled. The passengers abandoned the vehicle and the driver was arrested.
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The Halfway Post
The Halfway Post@HalfwayPost·
BREAKING: A trad-wife influencer convention in Montana went off the rails today when dozens got sick after drinking free samples of raw milk, and threw up in the auditorium during a talk by a founder of a company that runs "natural immunity daycares for unvaccinated children."
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The White House
The White House@WhiteHouse·
ICED OUT.
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Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle
Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle@USAmbassadorGR·
An exciting day for Greece! It was my honor to participate in the ribbon cutting for a brand new McDonald’s at The Mall in Athens, the most technologically advanced McDonald’s in all of Europe! American businesses investing here create jobs and bring American culture – and delicious food – to the Greek people.
Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle tweet mediaAmbassador Kimberly Guilfoyle tweet mediaAmbassador Kimberly Guilfoyle tweet mediaAmbassador Kimberly Guilfoyle tweet media
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Andrew Kaczynski
Andrew Kaczynski@KFILE·
NEW: The health official who led the public response to the Hantavirus outbreak has little background in public health and previously was a penile implant specialist who hosted a podcast where he questioned the 2020 election and compared the Biden administration to Nazi Germany.
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VolMachine
VolMachine@VolMachine·
TEAPUB holders need to figure out whether the company will have sufficient source of liquidity over the next 6 months as deferrals pile up. First shot has been fired with the CA deferral.
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